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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Well, that could very well be the case, but it's hard to believe TSLA will have sidewise movement for a period of 6 months. I honestly believe that if Elon had set a more realistic goal, the market would have taken it badly at first then slowly come back to a higher range than we are currently at. And with this quarter's delivery news, with s and x beat estimates and on par 3 ramp would have been well received and SP would have shot up.

It is impossible to predict what would have happened IF (insert other course of action that could have been taken by Elon).

The only thing that is quite certain with TSLA is that it's very volatile and therefore risky to bet on the short term. (That's why I'm not doing that again after burning my fingers on some 'gone wrong'-trades :) )
 
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Buy the dip
Did it again.
I keep saying I'm done accumulating, but we keep having dips, and I never can resist. But this got me to a really round number (quite a few zeroes), so maybe I'll be able to resist future impulses so I don't ruin such an optically pleasing number of shares.
 
Bummed about the backpedaling again on guidance, but that's just because I have calls expiring in March and June. I have been drinking way too much koolaid I guess. So, the 5,000/week production was originally pushed back from end of Q4 2017 to end of Q1 2018, and that was given with a high degree of confidence as of 2 months ago. Now it has been pushed back another 3 months to the end of Q2 2018, presumably again with a high degree of confidence. What the heck happened over the last couple of months to change the guidance? My question is, is end of Q2 finally realistic for 5,000/week? Or, is that still optimistic? I believed in the guidance when they said there was confidence in 5,000/week by end of Q1. Well, that was pretty wrong, wasn't it? How is one to truly filter guidance from Tesla? My guess is that no matter what is said, just always assume it is extremely optimistic guidance. This would apply to the latest ramp guidance as well it would seem. Is it more likely then that 5,000/week will come by Sep. 2018? Do others familiar with Tesla guidance think 5,000/week by June 2018 is very likely at this point? Or, is it still optimistic as per the track record? I'm gaining more respect for Adam Jonas' forecasts regarding Tesla.

Always
have an “extra” 3-6 months built into any substantial options positions.

If you have a good opportunity to roll out some of your options you might want to jump on it. September calls might be a good idea (available in January). OTOH I would not panic until after the Q4 ER call in early February but that is pushing it for March options.
 
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Man, wishing I could back the truck up to load up some more, but I won’t have any more dry powder until late in January. I’m leaving it up to the trolls and shorts to keep the SP down until I can buy some more. When the Model 3 sells more in January than the Bolt, I expect a bump.
 
IMHO and it may be very unpopular ..... Elon and Tesla owe nothing to option traders. It's silly to base the success or failure of Model 3 on a few months of delay in production , long term investors shouldn't care about a 3-6month delay but rather that the manufacturing process produces well built cars that will give Tesla many happy owners and create the best advertisement possible .... word of mouth.

Yes I will have to wait a little longer for my Model 3 and I think we will all have to wait a little longer for TSLA to start moving to the highs again as I don't think we will see significant gains until WS sees some better production numbers.

Cheers to the longs ...
 
IMHO and it may be very unpopular ..... Elon and Tesla owe nothing to option traders. It's silly to base the success or failure of Model 3 on a few months of delay in production , long term investors shouldn't care about a 3-6month delay but rather that the manufacturing process produces well built cars that will give Tesla many happy owners and create the best advertisement possible .... word of mouth.

Yes I will have to wait a little longer for my Model 3 and I think we will all have to wait a little longer for TSLA to start moving to the highs again as I don't think we will see significant gains until WS sees some better production numbers.

Cheers to the longs ...

The post by gtrplyr1 is spot on.
IMO Tesla's numbers report was very good, although I did not like the push back by one quarter for 5k/wk M3 deliveries, more for personal reasons. Having waited one day until April 1/16 for give M3 deposit, and being Canadian, I will unlikely see my M3 until early '19. Cheers to the future! Patient investors will be rewarded. 5k/wk M3 deliveries, once confirmed should put TSLA back at ATH.

Daniel
 
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