bdy0627
Active Member
According to Option Sniper, 314 is a critical technical level to hold today in order to define that the bottom has occurred on the weekly chart.
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Change handle to Pi-person?
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Funny to watch the second-by-second changes and how predictable that mandatory morning dip is. (mmd, is that you?)
And now we move from mandatory morning dip to "whack the mole", where shorts sell whenever TSLA pops into the green. Look, there's one now!
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I know, holy cow! Looks like there's a lot of buying pressure and they're trying real hard to prevent green!
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Looks like they're actually not just trying to stay in red, but stay below $314. Only another quarter or two of these games.
I'm getting more and more confident that the shorts will not run for the hills until Tesla posts profits. So within a quarter or two, they'll start running for the hills. And they will do that quickly.
I'm getting more and more confident that the shorts will not run for the hills until Tesla posts profits. So within a quarter or two, they'll start running for the hills. And they will do that quickly.
bdy0627
Active Member
I suspect they'll run for the hills soon but then come back soon enough again. I don't think that will change for a while.
Mandatory morning dip (MMD), whack-a-mole, MMD, rinse and repeat
Looks like both excursions into the green have been repelled at 316. That's the number to convincingly break through in order to go higher today, I suspect.
Mike Smith
Active Member
I think the 50dma at 317.30 is the barrier that needs to be broken. We've rejected from it a few times since the delivery numbers.
bdy0627
Active Member
We're awfully close to Max Pain not to get laser beamed towards it. I definitely wouldn't expect it to escape upwards. If there are enough hedge funds that want us below it, perhaps they have a chance to pull it off in the low volume final 30 minutes. I wouldn't bet on it though.
bdy0627
Active Member
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
But, we finished higher than last Friday’s close during a week when “horrible” news was reported. The shorts have got to be pretty discouraged at this point - they received the news they thought they wanted earlier this week, but they did not get the stock market reaction they wanted (as hard as they tried to decimate the stock price this week). The challenge, in my view, for the shorts going forward is their story is falling apart. With respect to the M3, the original script was Elon will never be able to produce the car. Then, when he did start to produce the car, it was he will never be able to produce it in significant numbers and the build quality will be bad. As we are now getting very positive reviews on build quality, the build quality part of the narrative will need to go away. The short’s last strangle hold is the inability to produce in numbers. Well, even though Elon pushed out by another quarter getting to 5,000/week, there is significant evidence that Tesla is ramping, and the ramp continues to get stronger (lots of invites went out this week). The shorts are fighting a losing battle - at this point it is not if Tesla can produce a high quality mass market car, it is just a question of when it can produce in the numbers that the street wants. I would much rather be on the “when” side than the “if” side.
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Gerardf
Active Member
In my humble point of view, this week was Epic!
Kind of reassures me that the again delayed production was already priced in and gives me hope for my march 350 calls that I bought in the 33X last month.
Now let's hope that Option_Sniper is right and we move back to 32X next week!
Kind of reassures me that the again delayed production was already priced in and gives me hope for my march 350 calls that I bought in the 33X last month.
Now let's hope that Option_Sniper is right and we move back to 32X next week!
I tell you, if I was a short, and I could not get the stock to drop below 310 on what they thought was horrible M3 news, I would cover and run NOW! There is just no way the stock is going below 300 at this point. The bummer for us is if the ramp was ahead of schedule with 5k/week by mid February, the stock would probably be over 350 right now. I'm sure it will get there by summer. Hopefully there will be something good in the ER report to cause a pop next month. Otherwise it will be a slow and steady grind. But it ain't going down....
Best I can tell, it was a trader flunking after-hours trading by not putting in a suitable limit on his buy request. Often we see late prints which reflect delayed postings of transactions, but at no time did TSLA trade above 319 today.
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