TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dwdnjck]

Dave, I don’t think your definition of “iterate” is the same as Elon’s. It is not the iteration of the car. It is the iteration of how the car is produced.. It is not about building battery packs that are marginally better. It is about how fast and efficiently they can build them.

 

[Ulmo]

I doubt there are 100k+ orders for the $35k car.

That's exactly how Tesla thinks of the S & X customers.

 

[mongo]

I’ll disagree on this. Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp fiasco could have been avoided. And should have been avoided. All without delaying its launch.

Back to the double upstream post of yours:

When designing a product, you don’t want the product to “fail”. Rather, you iterate and make mistakes in the design process and try to correct them internally so that when you release the product it’s a success.

When producing a product, you don’t want your production goals to “fail”. Rather, you need to have strenuous internal testing and validation procedures to ensure production is on time. In other words, you work out the mistakes internally so that when you launch publicly, you don’t fail.

Tesla can make all the mistakes they want internally during the development and testing processes. That’s fine and good. But when they go public with a product or even production goals, they should meet or exceed them. We shouldn’t expect nothing less.

All these extra steps take time. The only way to not make the ramp late while doing what you suggest is to have moved the ramp/ launch date later to post meeting the target rate. (Thus not late based on new date, but still later than what was projected). Or not given any targets until they are already met.

Also concider the cash flow issue, how much inventory of pre-ramp pre-launch cars could Tesla afford to have sitting around and for how long while the ramp kinks were sorted out? If they sell the cars, then they are in production and everyone clamors for their car and wants to know when it will be available. If they hold them all in a warehouse while internalizing the ramp issues, they waste money and shareholder says "What?!?" If they give no guidance then many assume the worst (never).

Rather, you need to have strenuous internal testing and validation procedures to ensure production is on time.

Are you saying all this testing could fit in the original timeline? If not, what timeline are you suggesting for Tesla to determime that sections 1&2 of pack assembly were never going to work? (Since switching suppliers or re-engineering the existing design at that point would take additional time and their schedule relied on everything going smoothly)

Speaking of launch delays, at least two of the Falcon 1 failures could have been avoided (leaking fitting and residual thrust issue). Along with two Falcon 9 failures (Supplier quality issue on small number of struts and COPV failure due to change in loading order).

I predict the Market will react favorably to the March rate information today and that the stock will be above the pre Q1 call price shortly after the post Q2 call. Ask me in mid-May what my confidence level is on that prediction...

 

[sundaymorning]

I think Tesla’s new ramp schedule for Q1 will be fine. Lots of vin in the 6000s spotted in the wild with some vin assignment in the 7000-8000 range being issued.

VIN Assignment

 

[sundaymorning]

Currently Tesla trading at $315.75 in Europe.

 

[Tenable]

Currently Tesla trading at $315.75 in Europe.

I can't stop myself from checking the price every 10 minutes. But for those who may not know Xetra is almost always traded thinly. Presently only 1400 shares have traded since the open. As such, the price movement there means very little on most days.

 

[Matias]

I think you got some things mixed up here. Tesla has not named the subcontractor but I don’t think they would have asked Grohmann to design a new line if they messed it up the first time. Elon also said on the call that everything they delivered has been up to spec. No need to blame the workers or unions for this.

Tesla owns Grohmann.

 

[Todd Burch]

Congrats to all who bought on Friday. I'll eat my hat if we don't correct back up significantly today (famous last words?) barring another silly market panic day. I wanted to buy a ton on Friday but couldn't get clearance from the wife to shift more money from savings to TSLA even though I was almost positive we'd be shooting back up, making easy money.

 

[myusername]

for example... I think the "market action" will go like this... open between $216 and $218... "mandatory morning dip" to $213 and possibly $211.87... then at about 20 to 30 minutes in, it will dramatically rebound back to $218... then it will slowly trade down and hold at $216 for the majority of the day, then deviate a bit from there into the close.

(mods... don't remove until I'm proven wrong)

EDIT: one alternative is it will rebound to $218 and continue to $224/5 and open at $226 tomorrow. max pain is way up there.

 

[Gerardf]

Up 8 points pre-market and European markets are positive, macro should be ok.
European Stock Markets - CNNMoney

Edit: Oeps, ruined it

 

[bambam4171]

And down it goes, no need to eat any hats so far

 

[Papafox]

* Good news about TSLA came out Friday after market close (8K saying Tesla can make 2500 M3 modules/week in Q1 without the new German line).
* The broader markets are way up
* TSLA is at a bargain price at the moment

These are not times when longs want to sell. We're seeing a short-seller induced mandatory morning dip in order to chase away traders. Same old strategy. Hoping it fails at some point because TSLA could still run up today if that happens.

 

[Todd Burch]

* Good news about TSLA came out Friday after market close (8K saying Tesla can make 2500 M3 modules/week in Q1 without the new German line).
* The broader markets are way up
* TSLA is at a bargain price at the moment

These are not times when longs want to sell. We're seeing a short-seller induced mandatory morning dip in order to chase away traders. Same old strategy. Hoping it fails at some point because TSLA could still run up today if that happens.

Yep. At some point within a few hours the stock will pop a bit and I won't have to eat a hat.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

No one mentioned that Tencent owns close to 10% now, including its Huang River Investment subsidiary?
Tesla - Amended Statement of Beneficial Ownership

Is this old news?
Edit: It appears this is not new, see further posts

 

[Tenable]

No one mentioned that Tencent owns close to 10% now, including its Huang River Investment subsidiary?
Tesla - Amended Statement of Beneficial Ownership

Is this old news?

I was unaware, nice catch Z.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I was unaware, nice catch Z.

Naaaah, I was wrong, I think they just shifted shares around, small incremental increase, some 200K only.
Compared to the old filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1293451/000095010317002811/dp74362_sc13g.htm

 

[larmor]

No one mentioned that Tencent owns close to 10% now, including its Huang River Investment subsidiary?
Tesla - Amended Statement of Beneficial Ownership

Is this old news?
Edit: It appears this is not new, see further posts

If anything it is a self fulfilling contraction for Tencent... Pls ignore and delete...

 

[RiverCard]

Whale Wisdom shows FMR reduced its holding by 2.8 million shares and held 16.7 million shares at 12/31/17

 

[MitchJi]

TYPO
The last two slides are for J2020 $400 with a price of $23.70 and $47.95. Did not know they traded on sunday and swung that much in a few minutes.

I assume the 3rd slide was meant to be J19 ?

Thanks HG! You are exactly correct. It’s the January 2019 image with a typo in the label.

On Friday I moved about 20% if our portfolio to June $320’s.

This is definitely not an advice, but I believe that those options are a slam dunk to be up huge by April-June. :

We might decide to roll them to April or May options for a potentially bigger gain or loss though .

 

[Nate the Great]

Thanks HG! You are exactly correct. It’s the January 2019 image with a typo in the label.

On Friday I moved about 20% if our portfolio to June $320’s.

This is definitely not an advice, but I believe that those options are a slam dunk to be up huge by April-June. :

We might decide to roll them to April or May options for a potentially bigger gain or loss though .

Taxed or untaxed?