TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

Yes, it’s the January 2019 image with a typo in the label.

On Friday I moved about 20% if our portfolio to June $320’s.

This is not an advice, but I believe that those options are a slam dunk to be up huge by April-June. We might decide to roll them to April or May options for a potentially bigger gain or loss though .

I agree. This is what I have been doing as well, focusing on both April and June $320 calls to supplement my J19 LEAPs. The J19 LEAP premiums are pretty high in my opinion. I think the nearer term call options have much better risk/reward at this point. Essentially, the market has suddenly decided that there is a fairly low chance that TSLA will be above $340 by April. I think the market is wrong. This only happens with dramatic dips like we just had. Even now with TSLA at $310, APR20 $320s yield about 60% if the stock price is at $350 by April 18. If it gets there by mid March, the yield is around 90%. This is roughly 2x the gain with J19s. There is the risk of further delays and/or a prolonged market correction, but I personally judge those possibilities as reasonably low. I applied a similar strategy in December with March calls and sold most of them in late January after they were up over 100%. With our rapid rise from the December dip, January was a very nice month for my account. Obviously, there is more risk for the allocation to these nearer term calls than the J19s, so you have to be comfortable with that.

 

[MitchJi]

Taxed or untaxed?

Taxed, but,since I believe that the odds are great that they will be up well over 100% I believe that the taxes will be mouse nuts.

I agree. This is what I have been doing as well, focusing on both April and June $320 calls to supplement my J19 LEAPs. The J19 LEAP premiums are pretty high in my opinion. I think the nearer term call options have much better risk/reward at this point. Essentially, the market has suddenly decided that there is a fairly low chance that TSLA will be above $340 by April. I think the market is wrong. This only happens with dramatic dips like we just had. Even now with TSLA at $310, APR20 $320s yield about 60% if the stock price is at $350 by April 18. If it gets there by mid March, the yield is around 90%. This is roughly 2x the gain with J19s. There is the risk of further delays and/or a prolonged market correction, but I personally judge those possibilities as reasonably low. I applied a similar strategy in December with March calls and sold most of them in late January after they were up over 100%. With our rapid rise from the December dip, January was a very nice month for my account. Obviously, there is more risk for the allocation to these nearer term calls than the J19s, so you have to be comfortable with that.

Not an advice.
I decided on June rather than April or May because the .June options have a substantial portion of the upside compared with April and May. I want to get the bump from the grohmann install in April or May. I’m planning to wait until Inhave a better indication of the status of that installation before shifting to weeklies. A potential problem with making those shifts is that the iv could be a killer, but rolling from June to April or May weeklies I won’t lose that much. And if it looks bad I not only won’t make the switch, but I can easily salvage much more from June options than April options.
Not an advice.po

 

[Waiting4M3]

Taxed, but,since I believe that the odds are great that they will be up well over 100% I believe that the taxes will be mouse nuts.


Not an advice.
I decided on June rather than April or May because the .June options have a substantial portion of the upside compared with April and May. I want to get the bump from the grohmann install in April or May. I’m planning to wait until Inhave a better indication of the status of that installation before shifting to weeklies. A potential problem with making those shifts is that the iv could be a killer, but rolling from June to April or May weeklies I won’t lose that much. And if it looks bad I not only won’t make the switch, but I can easily salvage much more from June options than April options.
Not an advice.po

What's your opinion on if the market may wait until at least beginning of July for Q2 delivery #, or late July for Q2 ER with confirmation on M3 margin, before going back above $350 level? Based on recent local peaks it seems that $350 could be the top just based on anecdotal evidence and speculations that ramp is going well. Q1 results will likely just confirm the 2500/wk #, probably with caveat, and margin still won't look that great.

 

[elasalle]

waking up ...

 

[madodel]

Yep. At some point within a few hours the stock will pop a bit and I won't have to eat a hat.

In case you do, I suggest these Mexican Hats - Gummies - Chocolates & Sweets - Nuts.com More palatable than a wool cap or a fedora.

 

[Ulmo]

See my edit below.

I just read the 13G showing Tencent Holdings (Chinese shell company) with “SHARED VOTING POWER 8,347,094”. I assume the unusually low TSLA stock price drop after ok to good quarterly news was macro timed preplanned manipulation to give China more profit and control of Tesla.

Tesla - Amended Statement of Beneficial Ownership

Update: (@Turing, you marked “informative” before my edit.)

Whoops, seems I may be wrong:

Naaaah, I was wrong, I think they just shifted shares around, small incremental increase, some 200K only.
Compared to the old filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1293451/000095010317002811/dp74362_sc13g.htm

 

[JRP3]

Happy to have bought last Thursday and Friday, I expect many others are as well. Montana Skeptic over at SA decided today was a good day to encourage others to short He seems to think the faithful have finally lost their conviction in Tesla

 

[Waiting4M3]

Happy to have bought last Thursday and Friday, I expect many others are as well. Montana Skeptic over at SA decided today was a good day to encourage others to short He seems to think the faithful have finally lost their conviction in Tesla

Has he been talking to VA?

 

[Todd Burch]

Yep. At some point within a few hours the stock will pop a bit and I won't have to eat a hat.

In case you do, I suggest these Mexican Hats - Gummies - Chocolates & Sweets - Nuts.com More palatable than a wool cap or a fedora.

No thanks, I'm good .

 

[RobStark]

Happy to have bought last Thursday and Friday, I expect many others are as well. Montana Skeptic over at SA decided today was a good day to encourage others to short He seems to think the faithful have finally lost their conviction in Tesla

Next year we shall refer to February 12th as the Montana Skeptic Bottom.

 

[Gerardf]

Next year we shall refer to February 12th as the Montana Skeptic Bottom.

Agree.
I mentioned that in the second comment below the article.

Let’s take note Montana Skeptic encouraged his folowers & fanboys to go short at a share price of 310 on Feb 12, 2018.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Agreed, and my estimates are even higher, but why leave it to chance given the latest list of misses? I offer two simple solutions:

1. Put a time limit to market cap milestones; and/or
2. Weight the number of shares awarded to higher market cap milestones - i.e. 100k shares for $100B, 200k shares for $150B, 400k shares for $200B, 800k for $250B, 1.6m shares for $300B, 3.2m shares for $350B, or a variation that matches total number of shares awarded, and so on... exponential rise... He’ll LOVE IT!!

That in short is your problem.
You basically over promised your readers here, SA, and presumably other places dividends soon.
You over sold to your “clients” on TSLA and they presumably want/need an answer.
You like many of us are TSLA heavy in our portfolio therefore sour with EM & company.
You lost face. So what? There will be tomorrow. Cheer up buddy as I don’t recognize you no more. What happened to the VA cheerleader I’ve come to know?

 

[WarpedOne]

650B in 10 years...
Last 10-bagger took Elon 6 years... second time he will need more or less time to do it?
Practice makes perfect ...

 

[Curt Renz]

Schaeffer's Investment Research - this afternoon: Stock Signal That Called the 2009 Bottom Just Flashed Again

 

[JRP3]

And

 

[BornToFly]

Not happy with the Margin requirements at Fidelity. I have a lot of naked Puts that I sold with experiation in Jan 2019. Right now they have a negative market value, which is to be expected. However, Fidelity has margin requirements 2-3x the market value, which is triggering margin calls for me right now. I called them, and they said they have very conservative margin requirements which aren't negotiable. Do other sites like IB give you a little more leeway?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Not happy with the Margin requirements at Fidelity. I have a lot of naked Puts that I sold with experiation in Jan 2019. Right now they have a negative market value, which is to be expected. However, Fidelity has margin requirements 2-3x the market value, which is triggering margin calls for me right now. I called them, and they said they have very conservative margin requirements which aren't negotiable. Do other sites like IB give you a little more leeway?

I need to have enough to cover price of the put plus around 50% of SP, i.e, every put I sell ties in some $15.8K of the cash/margin today.

 

[Tenable]

Not happy with the Margin requirements at Fidelity. I have a lot of naked Puts that I sold with experiation in Jan 2019. Right now they have a negative market value, which is to be expected. However, Fidelity has margin requirements 2-3x the market value, which is triggering margin calls for me right now. I called them, and they said they have very conservative margin requirements which aren't negotiable. Do other sites like IB give you a little more leeway?

If you're facing a margin call why not buy some cheap far far oom puts to reduce your margin needs? Yes it will cut into your potential profits, but better than the alternative.

Not advice etc etc.

 

[Words of HABIT]

for example... I think the "market action" will go like this... open between $216 and $218... "mandatory morning dip" to $213 and possibly $211.87... then at about 20 to 30 minutes in, it will dramatically rebound back to $218... then it will slowly trade down and hold at $216 for the majority of the day, then deviate a bit from there into the close.

myusername, great foresight shown this morning, a bit high on the bottom today, but spot on otherwise. I'm going to have to start paying more attention to you. Seriously.

 

[myusername]

myusername, great foresight shown this morning, a bit high on the bottom today, but spot on otherwise. I'm going to have to start paying more attention to you. Seriously.

It's almost like a magic trick... isn't it?... hey mods... thanks for not moving the post...

I'll only follow up with this... I should not be able to do this.