TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Duffer]

Went and test drove a Model 3 performance this week. Wow. Just Wow.

What's your expected delivery date?

Not trying to pry, just interested in the turnaround time between order and delivery of the M3 performance.

 

[Opus BC fan]

My test drive (along with my daughter) of the P3D is scheduled for Wednesday 9/22. I'm thinking this will result in another order (on top of the M3D arriving tomorrow).

 

[Skryll]

Geez, this latest security guy “whistleblower” makes it obvious why Tesla needs to go private. I just don’t believe this guy is doing what he’s doing on his own without being paid off for doing it. Elon is right, there is a huge financial incentive for the shorts to screw up Tesla.

3-2-1 to a gofundme

 

[Ellec]

Telsa has to go private, but what if they destroyed the shorts on the way out?

Here's my thinking.

Elon announces going private at $420:

Investors interested in going private start to buy in open market to get a better price
Insider and institutions account for @90% of float. 10% is retail individual investors.
There are 170 million shares, if 85% want to go private (after buying up) that leaves 15 million shares to be bought out.
If Telsa then announce they will pay $500 that will cost 7.5 billion. However there are not enough shares or shorts to cover so you get a panic squeeze and price spikes up above $1000 allowing the shorts to cover and those who want out to make a great profit. It costs Tesla zero and they investors make a boat load.

 

[dmckinstry]

Lower prices just means buy buy buy. I can only say that here, everyone else I know thinks I'm crazy for buying more shares.

No money to buy. The best I can do is roll over more of my Traditional IRA into my ROTH IRA. That way with the SP low, I won't pay as much tax on the conversion.

 

[gringotuanis]

Anyone see that new article from the analyst that it should be easy to hit 8k per week without much more capital expense. (Long tsla).

I can't post the link but it can be easily found.

 

[brian45011]

• There's was organized big buyer resistance at $334 and $336, which drove the price to $342.

It was also about the same time the Evercore report on its recent tour of Fremont and resulting plan to increase its 2H18 revenue estimates hit the news feeds.

FWIW, Evercore was TSLA's valuation consultant and Lazard was SCTY's in the merger. Both plus Centerview are vying for rentention for the MBO.

Plenty of potential clients:
-the BoD
-the corporation
-Elon as an Officer & Director
-Elon as syndicate leader
-KSA/PIF

Fees all around

 

[Fact Checking]

This got me thinking we need a virtual indicator like the real one for forest fires with:
Low, Moderate, or Extreme FUD Day Warning
The problem is I think the meter might get stuck on Extreme making it not so useful.

We could solve that problem by adding a few more levels:

• Low
• Moderate
• Extreme
• Insane
• Ludicrous
• Plaid
• 11

(The problem is, current FUD is clearly at Level 11 and might get stuck there, making the FUD-o-meter not so useful.)

 

[loky]

Anyone see that new article from the analyst that it should be easy to hit 8k per week without much more capital expense. (Long tsla).

I can't post the link but it can be easily found.

You should post the link, please (long TSLA too).
Otherwise delete the post!

 

[Pras]

I wonder if funds are slowly buying some stocks in open market while waiting to join the deal proposed by Elon.

 

[Fact Checking]

I have to say it's pretty fascinating to me that buyers aren't stepping up yet given that we are a full 20% below the buyout price. Fear of a further drop and uncertainty about the buyout are ruling the day.

Note that volume of 6-7m shares is pretty low - which suggests the big buyers are inactive, which could be because:

• one possible reason could be that major shareholders are unable to initiate more buying, because their main Tesla decision makers are in possession of non-public material information, such as the details of the going-private negotiations,
• or Tesla/Elon could have insisted on a freeze on share count for a shareholder to be part of the negotiation process, (to prevent a rush for shares),
• or there's indeed too much uncertainty about the deal to justify more buying.

At the same time there's plenty of justification to sell shares - which creates downwards movement.

 

[avoigt]

Summary and deep insight from a 3 day Evercore factory tour:

Worth a read with plenty of details

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/08...-s-what-s-really-going-on-in-Tesla-s-factory/

 

[brian45011]

I think he knew exactly how valuable those options were.

The initial form 4 (soon ?) should show the RSUs vs options.

 

[MP3Mike]

Can the SEC turn these "whistleblower" complaints around and investigate the "whistleblowers" for attempted market manipulation? (Try to find out if there is somebody pulling the strings behind them.) If they had filed the complaints and kept it to themselves would be one thing, but reporting everything publically this early in the process seems suspicious.

If so, what are the chances that they would do that on their own? Or would someone have to file a complaint with them?

 

[abasile]

Wow, I just put in a limit order to buy a modest number of shares at $335 and it executed at $334.49, lower than expected.

After selling off about 30% of our TSLA holdings at +/- $350, I'm opportunistically buying back in small increments as long as the price stays down. (I mentioned this previously, but the whole post got moved into another thread due to my references to another nation's sovereign fund which I won't name here...)

 

[Joe F]

It never ends...

This just now from Dow Jones Newswire hence the drop in the SP:

Tesla Is Also Under Investigation for Model 3 Disclosures - Source
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC.5:26 PM ET 8/16/2018
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires08-16-181826ETCopyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

[Nb1277]

I'm long TSLA bigtime (relative to the size of my portfolio) so I'm hoping this is not accurate and I can be paranoid but I've recently become quite concerned. The SEC investigation could be a significant negative development but I can also see how it may blow over. HOWEVER, the report that Tesla is concerned about billions (plural) of potential losses from investor lawsuits....could that not force them into bankruptcy (or some other poor alternative i.e. fire sale, divestitures etc.)? They only have a couple billion cash on hand. That's sufficient for production ramp and normal operation but throw unexpected $billions of costs into the mix and it may not be. They could raise cash but that could prove very difficult as it would be a move of desperation.

Is no one else here concerned? Again, hoping I'm wrong but I'm getting worried about getting my car delivered and having a lasting support structure around it, let alone stock losses.

 

[Johan]

The SEC investigation

Which investigation?

the report that Tesla is concerned about billions (plural) of potential losses from investor lawsuits

Which report?

 

[Joe F]

Is no one else here concerned?

No, I'm not. Sue for what, FUD?

 

[Johan]

one possible reason could be that major shareholders are unable to initiate more buying, because their main Tesla decision makers are in possession of non-public material information, such as the details of the going-private negotiations,

I'm beginning to think more and more that this could prove to be the most important reason for why we're seeing the apparent gradual fall-off in share price that may seem somewhat paradoxical from a bullish perspective.