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Damn it!!!!!! Cannot even let me have a little pride!!!!!!! All the shares I bought today are under water...
Waiting4M3
Active Member
~$331 is where I jumped in (into J20) as well. I was going to wait through next week for sub $330, but yesterday's new batch of invites made me pull in my time horizon. I feel it's very possible that Tesla follows up quickly with new batch of VIN registration with NHTSAA, and/or VINs significantly above 8000s being assigned.
I've
lol at least you arent underwater on your options today like me. Could always be worse ;-)
Damn it!!!!!! Cannot even let me have a little pride!!!!!!! All the shares I bought today are under water...
lol at least you arent underwater on your options today like me. Could always be worse ;-)
bdy0627
Active Member
With the short attack at close, it kept us down near the low for the day. I think we are virtually guaranteed to see a strong short attack tomorrow with a low below todays. If the pattern repeats, we may go down hard and then bounce firmly yielding a long lower wick.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I wonder if Trump is still proclaiming "see? the stock market loves my policies!" I note it's only a proposal... probably won't happen.
Meanwhile... TSLA continues its fall to $305.
And now there is a genuine alternative to Tesla if you want to buy a luxury BEV. Nice. I note that the EPA's range figure for X75D is 237miles, and they haven't published their test figure for the i-Pace yet, but Jaguar's marketing department is happy to convey their estimate of 240 miles at today's European launch. Is this the NEDC estimate? (The U.S.A. launch is March 6th)
Meanwhile... TSLA continues its fall to $305.
And now there is a genuine alternative to Tesla if you want to buy a luxury BEV. Nice. I note that the EPA's range figure for X75D is 237miles, and they haven't published their test figure for the i-Pace yet, but Jaguar's marketing department is happy to convey their estimate of 240 miles at today's European launch. Is this the NEDC estimate? (The U.S.A. launch is March 6th)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
In Europe, automakers should be using the WLTP standard now. Which is only slightly more optimistic than the EPA. The iPace does have a 90 kWh pack.
DurandalAI
Member
Given that Tesla is demand constrained, they can pick up those brand loyal to Jaguar and those who don’t want to wait 5 months for a Tesla. If I wasn’t so brand loyal to Tesla, I would probably get a second Leaf now that my Model 3 delivery is delayed until probably a year from now. Most people aren’t going to wait as long. Once Model 3 production is ramped, they need to unveil the Model Y as soon as possible.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think the competition between MX and i-Pace won't matter as much as people think, because the MX sales is production-limited. There will still be plenty of demand for i-Pace even if it's not beating MX spec-wise, as long as it's close enough to MX, and MX is taking plenty of sales from ICE lux SUVs, then i-Pace should do very well via the same route, taking sales away from ICE SUVs.
Shorts exist and do affect stocks, but what evidence do you have that shorts are the reason for our movement today?
Comparing the I-pace to the model-X is a bit of a red herring, when the I-pace is slightly smaller than the Model-3 !
As of now, the only metric the I-pace competes with the model-X is the price, there they are fairly close, in any other metric, such as size, performance, towing capacity they are not even in the same ball-park.
The I-pace will be competing with Model-Y when that is released.
As of now, the only metric the I-pace competes with the model-X is the price, there they are fairly close, in any other metric, such as size, performance, towing capacity they are not even in the same ball-park.
The I-pace will be competing with Model-Y when that is released.
bdy0627
Active Member
It diverged from the Qs near close, going down and then staying down. My guess, and this is a guess, is that the short percentage of trading today was even higher than the 55% seen yesterday. I'm guessing it was in the 60s today. Disclaimer: I read Papafox's analysis daily....
I don't have a problem with being in the red immediately after a trade. If you're sure the stock will rise to the stratosphere, or even if it just stays at the same level, it really doesn't matter in the long run.
If your goal is to aim for the local max and min for every trade, it's just not going to work out. Way I see it, the best bet is to find opportunities where you're sure it'll drop, so you can sell high and buy low. Past 2 days, I made a 20 dollar gain, so I'm pretty happy about it, even if it continues to drop. Even if you make smaller, safer, 3-5 dollar jumps, you'll really come out big in the end if you do enough of them.
Of course, there's a giant risk of selling, being wrong about it dropping, and watching it jump 30 points, so it's not fool proof.
If your goal is to aim for the local max and min for every trade, it's just not going to work out. Way I see it, the best bet is to find opportunities where you're sure it'll drop, so you can sell high and buy low. Past 2 days, I made a 20 dollar gain, so I'm pretty happy about it, even if it continues to drop. Even if you make smaller, safer, 3-5 dollar jumps, you'll really come out big in the end if you do enough of them.
Of course, there's a giant risk of selling, being wrong about it dropping, and watching it jump 30 points, so it's not fool proof.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
So let's see: TSLA is one of the most shorted stocks. PF, in his daily post, lists the percentage of trades by shorts, but despite these two facts (not opinions) short sellers have minimal effect on the stock price. Did I get that right?
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Shorts are our friends. They can— and do— depress the stock price in the short term, but have no effect on the long term price. So, as long as you have the ability to wait them out, shorts give you the ability to buy at an artificially depressed price. You get the stock at a discount.
The only way shorts can harm you is if you deprive yourself of the ability to wait them out— through margin, time decay, or what have you. Shorts create extra volatility, and our job is to harvest it. Sometimes the short term can feel like a long time, but if you wait for it, the harvest will always come.
The only way shorts can harm you is if you deprive yourself of the ability to wait them out— through margin, time decay, or what have you. Shorts create extra volatility, and our job is to harvest it. Sometimes the short term can feel like a long time, but if you wait for it, the harvest will always come.
Welp I’ve taken an even larger beating in LIT these past few months. I thought once it finally broke through 40 it’d be off to the races, but of course I was wrong.
I think there’s a pretty good chance it hit a local bottom and will climb back up to 40 within a few months for a ~ 16% gain from here.
Morgan Stanley just downgraded ALB and basically said there is going to be a lithium glut for the next several years. I think they are bananas. Big auto is going to be scrambling for batteries and lithium, and that starts just about now.
Hopefully the timing will be there such that I can ride a climb in LIT back up to 40 and TSLA will be back down to a good price around then too. I’d like to sell some of my LIT position and get back into TSLA and ride the wave as Model 3 deliveries pick up and see if we can hit 400.
I really wanted to see 280 or 260 even but it seems like a big change in macro would be needed for that after all.
For those looking for ideas and think TSLA is headed down to low 300 again, LIT or its major holdings ALB, FMC, SQM could be at good buy points right now. Only 5% of it or so is in TSLA.
Be warned, I’m a random guy on the internet and an amateur at trading. Overall macros are scaring me right now too.
I think there’s a pretty good chance it hit a local bottom and will climb back up to 40 within a few months for a ~ 16% gain from here.
Morgan Stanley just downgraded ALB and basically said there is going to be a lithium glut for the next several years. I think they are bananas. Big auto is going to be scrambling for batteries and lithium, and that starts just about now.
Hopefully the timing will be there such that I can ride a climb in LIT back up to 40 and TSLA will be back down to a good price around then too. I’d like to sell some of my LIT position and get back into TSLA and ride the wave as Model 3 deliveries pick up and see if we can hit 400.
I really wanted to see 280 or 260 even but it seems like a big change in macro would be needed for that after all.
For those looking for ideas and think TSLA is headed down to low 300 again, LIT or its major holdings ALB, FMC, SQM could be at good buy points right now. Only 5% of it or so is in TSLA.
Be warned, I’m a random guy on the internet and an amateur at trading. Overall macros are scaring me right now too.
I’m very perplexed by the Albemarle situation. Like you, I expect lithium demand to increase steadily in the coming years as more EVs hit the market. I bought some prior to their ER and plan to hold it long term.
- It's in this month that the German equipment will arrive at the GF. Within 4 weeks model3 production rate will be at 2k/week and surpass model S and model X rate.
- EAP first features will be released to a small fleet.
- Tesla energy revenue is ramping up to 3x 2017 revenue.
- Model Y pre-orders will be open before summer 2018 (as production begins 2019)
- Model S (and X) will undergo a facelift/go on a diet
Mod: edited out sarcasm directed at another member. --ggr.
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FWIW, the last three redemptions of the 2018 converts were settled with shares:
"In the second quarter of 2017, $144.8 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged for 1,163,442 shares of our common stock (see Note 14, Common Stock ). As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $1.1 million.
In the third quarter of 2017, $42.7 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged or converted for 250,198 shares of our common stock (see Note 14, Common Stock ) and $32.7 million in cash. As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $0.3 million.
In the fourth quarter of 2017, $12.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged or converted for 96,634 shares of our common stock (see Note 14, Common Stock ). As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $0.1 million....
During 2017, we issued 1,510,274 shares of our common stock and paid $32.7 million in cash pursuant to conversions by or exchange agreements entered into with holders of $199.5 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes (see Note 13, Convertible and Long-Term Debt Obligations ). As a result, we recorded an increase to additional paid-in capital of $163.0 million. In addition, we settled portions of the bond hedges and warrants entered into in connection with the 2018 Notes, resulting in a net cash inflow of $56.8 million (which was recorded as an increase to additional paid-in capital), the issuance of 34,393 shares of our common stock and the receipt of 169,890 shares of our common stock.
During the fourth quarter of 2017, we issued 34,772 shares of our common stock as part of the purchase consideration for an acquisition."
Anybody know the implications of issuing un-registered shares for these transactions?
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Your points are all speculation. Tesla would be foolish to release MY reservations without first significantly reducing the backlog of M3 orders, IMO MY will not take reservations until 2019 and production will not begin until 2000. Focus, as the vehicles are released are Semi before MY which is another reason why MY is likely to take longer to market than expected.
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