TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Ratanpara]

Tomorrow stock will trade based on InsideEV unofficial Model 3 Tally

 

[Opus BC fan]

Seriously this so called Elon Musk is getting to be a huge joke and I do really hope he pays for his *sugar*. Even if everything is true, Elon, my lovely liar, even then you should focus on your promises. One who is in the glass door does not throw stones at other people. Get your personal mess together and DELIVER instead of being a joke on weed like you were in the last 3 weeks. Your investors who believe in the future of Tesla have lost millions of dollars because of your stupidity and your unhealthy EGO. Stop now and DELIVER RESULTS. You are not anymore a child fighting for attention. Get your attention from SUCCESS. Do not make empty promises AND DELIVER.

Go be fruitful and multiply with yourself

 

[WarpedOne]

@Mike117:
All I really need is ignore function to spare me your vomit.

 

[dmckinstry]

So I've never invested in the stock market before. I started a bit back around 350. Added a couple more at just under 330.

It got below 320 a few weeks ago and scooped up another few shares. It hit $300 last week and I bought my biggest chunk yet.

I'm a small fry... only about $27K total. And I'm down so far on all of it.

For someone who got into TSLA so late, you been very lucky. The lower it drops, the lower your cost basis.
Unless like me you're all out of dry powder.

 

[Krugerrand]

No, he mentioned stamping once as one of the not-quite-rate-limiting steps. I think it got fixed before it became the primary bottleneck.

Yes, I remember that too. Very early on he talked about stamping being a possible issue but it never came to pass.

 

[Unpilot]

It seems like Elon is literally praying for being kicked out of Tesla by the board. Is there so much trouble going on? Why is he behaving like an asshole on weed? Seriously someone should send him to a psychico.

And on ignore you go.

 

[Krugerrand]

I have not sold yet but I am afraid of further book losses..

Because...???

Is this kind of like being afraid of ghosts even though you’ve never been haunted by one, let alone seen one? So like an irrational fear?

 

[JRP3]

Why is he behaving like an asshole on weed?

Why are you? Though clearly "weed" is not what you're on...

 

[gringotuanis]

J

For someone who got into TSLA so late, you been very lucky. The lower it drops, the lower your cost basis.
Unless like me you're all out of dry powder.

Just be super patient. One of Warren Buffets "tricks" was that he was an expert at doing nothing. Wait until you want to sell, then sell. Not investment advice lol.

 

[gringotuanis]

Yes, I remember that too. Very early on he talked about stamping being a possible issue but it never came to pass.

From what I've read it seems that paint is always the primary culprit these days...just a guess

 

[tivoboy]

The points Neroden mentions are things we are expecting here at TMC, definitely not the general market. I don't think the market is expecting a profitable Q3. Several analysts covering TSLA are predicting losses for Q3 along with a need for capital raise soon. If Tesla achieves guidance for Q3, that will be a surprise for much of the market. The drop right now is primarily sentiment-based. The market has placed Tesla in the penalty box, so to speak.

But, I would say that Elon and TESLA have said to expect profitablability for Q3. It's part of the reasons the analysts see/think it too and have modeled that out. If they DON'T hit that target, who knows where the bottom will be.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I’m hoping for 17k deliveries in August. That plus a few hundred in Canada would take us to around 32k in the first 2 months of the quarter, and make 50k for the quarter look very achievable.

16k is probably good enough, though not exciting. Anything below 15k would be worrisome, and anything over 18k would be very exciting.

 

[Zaxxon]

And on ignore you go.

I'm not here to defend Mike, but if you haven't read today's BuzzFeed piece, you should. It's troubling. Musk's email sounds unhinged, and many of his points are directly refuted by others who were there.

Look, I don't know if the dude is a pedophile or not, but 'he is a Brit who lives in an area known for trafficking, and we all know what that means, wink wink nod nod' is not solid ground on which to repeatedly attack someone. And it's not fitting for a business leader like Musk to keep doubling down on it.

Either take evidence to the authorities or shut the $#!& up already.

 

[gringotuanis]

Well, sure if you're looking at the *overall market*, but Tesla is nowhere near saturating the market.

After all, there are roughly 17 million cars sold in the US each year, the average price is around $30K, and so there are about 8 million cars sold at $30K+ price points. Tesla is only targeting about half a million cars per year for next year, and the other EV makers put together are producing even less, so it's gonna be a while before the overall supply of buyers with that much budget becomes relevant. (I believe that given the choice everyone will choose an EV over a gasmobile.)

In Tesla's current situation, we find that about 2/3 of the people who make reservations or orders want the longer-range version. I think that statement is on solid ground.

I hope the model Y is cooking on high temp...people love the mini SUVs around here. I see less and less sedans. Not that there's not a market - I just want the Y cranked out yesterday. They would have 1 million preorders with that thing.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

But, I would say that Elon and TESLA have said to expect profitablability for Q3. It's part of the reasons the analysts see/think it too and have modeled that out.

Not true. Wall St consensus estimate is a loss of $0.42 per share. Much smaller than recent losses, but still a loss. Profitability (which I expect) would be a huge beat.

 

[gringotuanis]

what is this ridiculous price action telling us today? am i supposed to believe that the street really thinks the company is not in a good position?

of 31 analyst rec’s;
11 are positive
9 are neutral
11 are sell

seems like it is being manipulated down before the good news starts flowing - which is highly frustrating

Don't get too frustrated...those analyst ratings you mentioned have been like that for a long time. I think longer than this year it's been weighted that way from the analyst side. I know for sure around Q1, Q2 it's been about 1/3 in each category. I think today's dip is due to the Mercedes SUV announcement...which is underwhelming to say the least.

 

[Skryll]

I hope the model Y is cooking on high temp...people love the mini SUVs around here. I see less and less sedans. Not that there's not a market - I just want the Y cranked out yesterday. They would have 1 million preorders with that thing.

Unless Hyunda(Kona)/Merc/BMW/Jaguar are already doing that with reasonable products and quantities, then we could just do the tesla pickup truck first. Then again how are they going to get up to speed on battery production...

 

[Krugerrand]

$280 is a very strong support. Too many history there. $250 might be a support but 275 is a very weak level. Where do you guys pull out these numbers?

It’s round. It’s a muscle. It’s the exit point of waste material.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I'm not here to defend Mike, but if you haven't read today's BuzzFeed piece, you should. It's troubling. Musk's email sounds unhinged, and many of his points are directly refuted by others who were there.

Look, I don't know if the dude is a pedophile or not, but 'he is a Brit who lives in an area known for trafficking, and we all know what that means, wink wink nod nod' is not solid ground on which to repeatedly attack someone. And it's not fitting for a business leader like Musk to keep doubling down on it.

Either take evidence to the authorities or shut the $#!& up already.

Notably, at the end of that BuzzFeed piece:

"BuzzFeed News corresponded with the Tesla and SpaceX CEO at a separate, personal email address that two sources confirmed belonged to Musk. One source, who had previously worked for Musk, noted that the email address can be accessed by the billionaire and his assistants. The source noted that it was not uncommon for Musk to personally respond to reporters and other people through that account."

That... does not instill confidence in the reporting.

 

[gringotuanis]

But, I would say that Elon and TESLA have said to expect profitablability for Q3. It's part of the reasons the analysts see/think it too and have modeled that out. If they DON'T hit that target, who knows where the bottom will be.

Are you reading the actual analyst reports or at least the excerpts? They definitely don't anticipate profitability this year. They expect losses and a capital raise sometime in the next 6 months. Which I would expect after Q3 they will do a capital raise...they need it to get the next plant built as fast as possible.