TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

Be careful selling calls as TSLA reverses. I don't know how long you've been trading it, but this stock can move up pretty quickly. This looks like a great time to sell puts, but I would personally be very cautious selling calls at this point in the dip.

I had already sold the sept 292.5 call last week at 10.5 but bought them back at 2$. ;-). It’s still probsbly a decent trade at this point. But I’ll probably drop lower to capture some more premium.

 

[HG Wells]

It keeps getting hammered down. I'm beginning to think it will close where it opened.

Dag Nabit !!!!!

 

[scaesare]

Two points

1) I did not say it is not happening at all. I said you do not admit it; thereby telling customers their sales are not as important as getting a Q3 profit by selling their car sooner if they can.

Incorrect, you didn't just address the salesperson admitting it, you questioned the way Tesla is handling things. Note that curly symbol at the end of your post... that's called a 'question mark':

So since they would not be able to get it delivered by 9/30 they canceled the shipment and are selling it locally in CA instead?

2) They would not be having to cancel and reschedule deliveries multiple times (which is really p*ssing people off) if the DC personnel scheduled deliveries once the car has arrived and is inspected. Instead, they have personnel in CA or NV doing the scheduling with no clue what is going on in the transport department.

Please to be citing your inside information regarding the logistics folks having "no clue" and therefore precluding any other factors that may contribute. Feel free to include percentages of overall deliveries with this problem.

 

[mongo]

It would be interesting to know the upgrade stats on the S 40s. What was the upgrade for that? I don’t recall. Thought it was only 2.5k? 9k is pretty steep for this market segment and we aren’t talking 4% of a a few thousand cars.

Nope. We’ve just had our first disagreement. Sorry, but our relationship has no where to go but down now.

9k is the 3 LR vs SR price. So 2.5k investment on Tesla's part for potential 6.5k return; a 30% upgrade rate over life of car is break even.

It keeps getting hammered down. I'm beginning to think it will close where it opened.

Dag Nabit !!!!!

But it opened above where it closed Friday, so still a win.

 

[FS_FRA]

It would be interesting to understand how quick a factory in China can be realistically build..

...

Asking all China experts we have here including Vincent is 2 years from building start to production start a realistic expectation?

IMHO:

Basic infrastructure, building structure, services, utilities, will happen much faster than in “the West”.
However the actual plant and automation is where it’s going to take as long, or longer than at GF1 (assuming lessons learned, etc). The challenges will be how Großmann is able to accelerate in China, how they will be able to staff the automation builds, what footprint they already have there, etc. Remember that they are probably already stretched quite thin due to GF1 and other US plants....
Also, importing anything into China takes longer. So those delays will also add up. Depending how attractive this is to local government will also help to speed things up or slow them down....

 

[CaliBear1]

Brandel Chamblee, former pro golfer and current analyst on the Golf Channel, nails it:

Check out @chambleebrandel’s Tweet: Brandel Chamblee on Twitter

 

[Krugerrand]

You don't need a MENSA IQ to understand that opening the production flood-gates might cause logistical issues with deliveries.

Seems good sense to me to operate in this was and although you could argue that Tesla should have foreseen it, kudos for them to reacting quickly and making the best out of the situation.

And the suggestion here by someone, who thinks they know better but doesn’t, to wait until a car has arrived and been inspected before notifying the person for a setup of a delivery date won’t work because:

Tesla doesn’t have vast lots at their stores/SC centers to be holding a crap ton of cars waiting for owners to be able to come get them days later. We, who actually know about Tesla, have seen the pictures of cars parked on top of cars with trailers of more cars waiting to unload. We know from hundreds of people the locations are like zoos.

We’ve read stories here of people being out of town and unable to get their car in a timely fashion and Tesla telling them we can’t hold your car. Come get it or we’ll order you a new one.

So yes, car salesman, Tesla will set up delivery days before cars get to their destination to try and prevent cars being parked on the street for days on end. While not perfect, it’s the lesser of the evils.

Sorry for using your post Werewolf to make this point. I’m done conversing directly with the snake in the grass.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's not true. When I ordered my 60D S in May 2016 they had 3 models: 60(locked from 75), 75 and 90. That setup lasted at least 6 months if not more, and there was definitely no "fulfill old configuration order' business. It was very explicit and price difference was significant for me to choose 60S. They dropped upgrade price from 10,000 to 2,000 recently.

I know at least 2 other people locally who have ordered a 60 around the same time and haven't upgraded...

I don’t remember it happening that way but okay. So how many limited 75s did they make in that period? We need to know the numbers to know how much money Tesla is willing to risk/leave on the table.

 

[beachbum77]

Incorrect, you didn't just address the salesperson admitting it, you questioned the way Tesla is handling things. Note that curly symbol at the end of your post... that's called a 'question mark':

​

Please to be citing your inside information regarding the logistics folks having "no clue" and therefore precluding any other factors that may contribute. Feel free to include percentages of overall deliveries with this problem.

Read the threads here in TMC. Customers get called or emailed from DC the night before to cancel a delivery. Customer calls ISA to request a new date. ISA has no idea car was not at DC as scheduled. ISA admits they are going by a screen that gives them a window of expected delivery date. What is not clear from the available information is if they are not getting updated on delays or just missing the info due to the volume of orders they are attempting to handle.

Because of the vast number of problems that can occur, my poiicy was to allow staff to alert orders when their units were built and leaving the factory. From there it was total silence until the vehicle arrived and was inspected. Only then did I allow deliveries to be scheduled. I cannot say if all dealers work that way but one thing we never had was a need to delay or reschedule a delivery unless the customer requested it.

 

[HG Wells]

Its 10:30
Morning dip over.

 

[mongo]

Short sell orders in the 275.xx region?
Sell at 275 buy at 272, rinse, repeat ?

I hate things that are a pattern until they are aren't.

 

[Todd Burch]

Longs/Bulls:

It's easy to see why shorts are having such success manipulating us. Stop responding to ridiculous claims (which only prods them on further). I want to reiterate my call for a pair of these for each of you, even the ladies in the crowd:

Every time the share price starts to drop there's despair, hand-wringing, and sweating from the longs. No wonder they were drawing the price down.

Ignore the FUD. Ignore the static. Eyes on the prize.

We got em right where we want em:

But they smell the fear. Take a shower and wash off the fear. Remind them whose balls are in the vise.

 

[neroden]

2) They would not be having to cancel and reschedule deliveries multiple times (which is really p*ssing people off) if the DC personnel scheduled deliveries once the car has arrived and is inspected. Instead, they have personnel in CA or NV doing the scheduling with no clue what is going on in the transport department.

This, unfortunately, is true. We know they have personnel in CA doing scheduling with no clue whatsoever, with the local delivery center saying "no, that delivery's not happening, we don't know what your CA delivery person is on about". Tesla is, as usual, totally disorganized.

 

[Matias]

I want to reiterate my call for a pair of these for each of you, even the ladies in the crowd:
View attachment 333691
.

I first wondered whether that is some kind of isolation tank that Musk and Rogan spoke in the podcast

 

[Sudre]

I think we all may not understand what is going on. My friend here in St Louis ordered his RWD last week. He is a first time Tesla owner, first day reservation. He has been waiting for many of the first run production issues to clear up to order. They just updated him in an email that his car should be delivered before the end of this month.

I think not only did the cars simply just miss getting shipped but Tesla is also gone up a step in production speed and shipping efficiency.

 

[Todd Burch]

I first wondered whether that is some kind of isolation tank that Musk and Rogan spoke in the podcast

An isolation tank would work too, as this forum would have a larger signal-to-noise ratio if we stopped responding to the crazies.

 

[beachbum77]

This, unfortunately, is true. We know they have personnel in CA doing scheduling with no clue whatsoever, with the local delivery center saying "no, that delivery's not happening, we don't know what your CA delivery person is on about". Tesla is, as usual, totally disorganized.

But it is a problem that can easily be fixed almost immediately. Let the DS's at the DC's schedule the deliveries. Problem solved.

 

[neroden]

Again, I think the problem is communications. There are any number of procedures which would work well, but they depend on the factory, the "delivery advisor", the finance approval team, the delivery center, and the transport logistics division *communicating with each other* and with the customer.

Every single one of those offices should have someone devoted to resolving "problem cases", spending the day on the phone with their counterparts in the other department. The easy deliveries can be automated and these people can sort out the complicated ones. There are no such dedicated people.

 

[Tslynk67]

I thought we agreed not to go to that site for a year? Somebody has no self control.

Hey, I didn't give a link, it was a screen-grab!

 

[beachbum77]

And the suggestion here by someone, who thinks they know better but doesn’t, to wait until a car has arrived and been inspected before notifying the person for a setup of a delivery date won’t work because:

Tesla doesn’t have vast lots at their stores/SC centers to be holding a crap ton of cars waiting for owners to be able to come get them days later. We, who actually know about Tesla, have seen the pictures of cars parked on top of cars with trailers of more cars waiting to unload. We know from hundreds of people the locations are like zoos.

We’ve read stories here of people being out of town and unable to get their car in a timely fashion and Tesla telling them we can’t hold your car. Come get it or we’ll order you a new one.

So yes, car salesman, Tesla will set up delivery days before cars get to their destination to try and prevent cars being parked on the street for days on end. While not perfect, it’s the lesser of the evils.

Sorry for using your post Werewolf to make this point. I’m done conversing directly with the snake in the grass.

Tesla does not need vast lots. The only reason they are running out of space now (Raleigh, NC the exception) is because they are getting swamped with spec cars. Once people know there are cars available for immediate delivery the temporary overcrowding problem will go away. Then the DC staff can easily handle the incoming ordered vehicles in a timely pipeline.

Raleigh has an uncommon problem because their facility is in a horrible location. They were using an empty lot that has now been sold. Then they were using street parking until the local police stopped that. Cars have been getting redirected to Charlotte, which is hours away.