TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wipster]

This is nice:
Tesla’s fleet reaches total of 9 billion electric miles on the road to the rEVolution

Fred is making an effort to redeem himself in the eyes of longs (and of course Tesla owners and fans). I would bet that TM will have a big celebration when they reach 10 million miles!

 

[Alphacrux]

link?

Let me try to find it.

 

[scaesare]

Based on the 28k cost estimate from tear downs, the base is profitable. However the production volume is not high enough yet to compensate for less total profit per car.

And given that the teardown that produced that figure was a LR, and the SR should have ~1/3rd less cells, the manufacturing cost should be even lower.

If one assumes a cell cost of ~$100/kWh, then likely somewhere North of $2600 less cost per car to produce for cells only...

 

[tivoboy]

Your post combines a condescending tone with basic flaws of logic:

• 
  
• In Q3 deliveries are guided to be twice as high, with a significant improvement in Model 3 gross margin.

was this point guided anywhere (other than in the cc where Q2 M3 margin was I believe 18%? I wonder if you think with the 80+% re-works required for some Q3 months on M3 production if that number will increase for this period or not?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

(what is apparently waning demand)

Are you talking about the current waning in demand? I agree it looks like waning demand for the RWD because the AWD is more desirable by most people. I don't think it's a sign of over all waning demand.

 

[Motor Mouth]

As to Short Range 10% of production would be nice. 5% is acceptable. 1 % too small.

There are probably a lot of factory workers still waiting on the SR.

Making SR available only to first day line waiters in Q1 2019 seems to me to be the right way to go. It would change the narrative of "there's no $35K version available" to "they are only releasing them in limited quantities" which IMO is pretty weak. Whether that's 1%, 5% or 10% is probably debatable. Hard to believe it would be more than 10% and it would reward loyal Tesla fans who are only able to afford the most affordable 3. Win-win

 

[wipster]

Fred is making an effort to redeem himself in the eyes of longs (and of course Tesla owners and fans). I would bet that TM will have a big celebration when they reach 10 million miles!

As Mongo gently reminded me... BILLION!!!!

What a dumbass I am sometimes...

 

[Alphacrux]

Let me try to find it.

This is what I was able to find. He didn’t specially mention the $35k version, but the point is they are making continual improvements to reduce cost.

“Just having that very rapid iteration between design and production is incredibly helpful and we understand for example, what are the rate limiters, what makes it hard to produce battery modules. We came up with a new design that achieves the same outcome, that's actually lighter, better, cheaper and will be introducing that around the end of this year, probably reach volume production on that in Q1 or something. That will make the car lighter, better, and cheaper and achieve a higher range. That line is under construction, will be active in about six months.”

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript


https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...-q2-2018-earnings-conference-call-transc.aspx

 

[theschnell]

I believe Tesla is still officially indicating that SR will start to be available at the beginning of 2019. I think they will more or less follow through on that timeline, but it certainly would make no sense to shift primarily to SR. It will likely be a relatively small portion of the mix for at least 1H 2019, which will limit the negative effect on ASP.

I haven't looked recently, but when I ordered in mid July it said SR in 6 - 9 months. Its very rare for Tesla to be early on their time estimates.

I think they have already lost creditability with SR waiters. Might as well maximize ASP until demand starts to fall off before starting to work in SR. If you start SR, even in small percentages, you encourage people to wait for SR rather then just getting the only version currently available.

 

[Tslynk67]

Terms of Service Violation

Gwynn backup-up Elon, bless her!

Exactly, I believe this price action is in significant part shorts amplifying volatility with an intent to influence the price. It's clearly visible again in today's price action, see the price action at the following timestamps: 9:45, 9:47, 10:49, 10:54, 11:35.

These were all selling 'spikes' not present in yesterday's price action under similar setups. My hypothesis is that it's at least one market participant with a short position who uses borrowed shares to mark down the price via pressure sales to take out critical levels of support: 'spikes' of 30-60k shares using market orders. These sold shares are then bought back more quietly after larger drops in the price using limit orders ('pumping' the price: aggressive when selling, passive when buying), or are not bought back but used to increase a short position.

None of these price movements were present yesterday or on Friday after the 'circuit breaker' "only short on uptick" trading rule went into effect for $TSLA. The reason is that the main tool to mark down the $TSLA stock price aggressively was not available to short sellers: market orders or limit orders placed below the current highest bid.

Note that these spikes trigger despite there being a green macro environment: NASDAQ up, Dow up.

To me these look like pretty clear-cut attempts at manipulating the price - but SEC lawyers are probably too busy reading Elon's tweets, maybe there's something actionable in today's tweets?

Yes, I've observed this time-and-time again, a sudden dumps of a large number of shares when the SP bering to get some traction.

I think Tesla needs to produce the $35K version of the Model 3 before too long, but mainly for PR purposes. As long as there's plenty of demand for higher-priced versions, they need only produce a trickle of cheaper cars, so the ASP (average selling price) shouldn't be affected too much. And the demand is there - Tesla just needs to start overseas deliveries.

I also think the PR they'd get from producing the base model would be huge. They could start with 1000 per month in Q3, and allocate them strictly to those first in the US in the pre-reveal queues.

But I suspect they're taking the strategy to make if fair for all and will leave it until 19Q1 and then try to get them all delivered in the first 6 months, so all base-model reservation holders get a bit at the $3750 rebate.

In any case, many ordering the base model don't qualify for the $7500 rebate, probably. Is that correct my friends from the USA? How much money do you need to earn per year for that to become an option?

 

[Tslynk67]

We have been discussing Electrek here over the last few days. Seems that Fred doesn't like criticism:

 

[tivoboy]

In any case, many ordering the base model don't qualify for the $7500 rebate, probably. Is that correct my friends from the USA? How much money do you need to earn per year for that to become an option?

I think the word MANY could probably be changed to NONE. I don't see the base model being delivered STATESIDE prior to EOY2018 when the full 7500$ ends. Meaning, no SR model would be registered till Q119.

I think you're question about "option" is about how much income does one need for the 7500$ to be fully refundable? If so, for a single filer its bout 68K for a married filer closer to 72K. Lots of variables though. So, it's OVER the average household income of about 53.5K. But, a 3750$ credit would bring those income amounts nearly 40%.

I DO think they will ultimately make the SR version, for USA but more specifically for ROW. There are many places outside the USA where distances travelled is not the issue, but overall price is. Europeans would certainly prefer to pay 10k+ euro less for a SR than the LR model.

 

[j0hn]

for those that don't read the other thread :

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

very positive !

 

[gene]

I DO think they will ultimately make the SR version, for USA but more specifically for ROW.

I have spent over a minute tryingt to figure out what ROW stands for. Could it be Republic Of ???? Please, if you can spend 1 second next time typing out the words, it would save many others a lot of time.

 

[aubreymcfato]

for those that don't read the other thread :

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

very positive !

jab-jab-cross
Elon Musk's Top SpaceX Deputy Says Her Boss Is Capable as Ever

“Elon is a brilliant man,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s president and chief operating officer, said Tuesday after speaking at a satellite industry conference in Paris. “He is as lucid and capable as he has ever been. I wish people would not focus on triviality.”

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I have spent over a minute tryingt to figure out what ROW stands for. Could it be Republic Of ???? Please, if you can spend 1 second next time typing out the words, it would save many others a lot of time.

Rest Of World, I think.

 

[mickificki]

I have spent over a minute tryingt to figure out what ROW stands for. Could it be Republic Of ???? Please, if you can spend 1 second next time typing out the words, it would save many others a lot of time.

rest of the world?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

However the bonds are tanking

Psst... the bonds are up today, just like they were yesterday.

 

[Tslynk67]

for those that don't read the other thread :

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

very positive !

Wow, so much positive in there! A must-read!

I prefer this to Romit's aversion to whiskey and smokes.

 

[dondy]

was this point guided anywhere (other than in the cc where Q2 M3 margin was I believe 18%? I wonder if you think with the 80+% re-works required for some Q3 months on M3 production if that number will increase for this period or not?

I think i am missing something here. Can you point where Tesla performs this "rework"? Any address? Always ready to learn something new.