Reciprocity
Active Member
It could be both $250 and $500 this year! Its actually a great opportunity because this company is not going to fail.
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It could be both $250 and $500 this year! Its actually a great opportunity because this company is not going to fail.
Wife and I have TSLA because we like Tesla, not because we think it will make us gazillionaries or that it is the best short term money maker. We hope Tesla succeeds based on its core mission and the effort many have put and are putting into its success. If it does so, that will be good for us too, but that's a bonus compared to the other changes it can bring about.
It's our sports team, along with SpaceX.
I hear you. If any of us had a time machine, we'd all go back in time and invest in the right stock. However, we don't, and there's no telling what any of those stock will do in the coming future.
What people who invest in this stock are betting on is that TSLA and Elon Musk will eventually hit their goal of 5k/10k per week. Once that happens, it's largely a sure thing that the stock will jump significantly. Even if they don't hit it this year, investors still think that they'll hit it eventually, maybe next year. What's important is that the success of this stock depends on an observable metric with a starting point and end goal, and while TSLA has a history of being late in achieving their goals, they also have a history of always hitting their major goals. People who believe this will have no problem sitting tight and waiting for it to happen.
There's also other stuff like the model y, semi, energy, etc etc, but I don't even count them yet until there's a clear vision, not just hopefulness, on what they can become.
That's a different kind of investing than investing in netflix or amazon and hoping they do better and better each quarter.
I have never felt stupid holding Tesla. I will admit to feeling a little surprised when Tesla announced the SuperCharger network, and free Supercharging and the stock did nothing, but, I did not feel stupid as I added shares.
Perhaps this sounds foolish to some... that's okay, as Warren Buffett wrote last month,
"What investors then need instead is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period – or even to look foolish – is also essential."
bdy0627
Active Member
Keep in mind we just had a massive increase in trading by shorts over the last week or so. This week really could have been a blood bath but so far has been a modest drop by TSLA's standards. There are lots of people hanging on due to FOMO given the long term picture. There are also lots of people staying away due to both technicals and the poor ramp performance. Those people will be jumping on board when it looks like the stock is taking off. Picking up shares and LEAPs at this level is likely a wise long term decision. Pick your allocation levels and your plan and follow it. Try to take emotion out of it, which you do by forming and following a well-thought out plan. This stock is definitely not for the faint of heart.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
This. Love it. Love Tesla. I would much rather put my money in a company I truly believe in for the benefit of the company than invest in oil, ICE auto, pot, tobacco, guns, alcohol or other companies that do not share my vision of the future, even if their returns were guaranteed to be higher. It's not always about the money.
Daniel
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I’d say this depends on one’s risk tolerance. My bet on Tesla going forward is that they will be able to move the art of auto manufacturing forward to such a degree that they will be able to extract much higher margins than previously possible.
There’s a high degree of risk in this, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Krugerrand
Meow
So when you said the E would be formidable threat to the S you were referring to exactly what aspect? Because so far you’ve yet to give one example of what will make it a formidable threat to a Civic, let alone an S.
I, for one, don't regret at all holding TSLA through these ups-and-down. I feel a certain regret that maybe I didn't trade a bit with the dips, but on the other hand, the stock may have kept going up, had things been slightly different, and I think at the end of the day I'm better just holding - I'm still roughly 2x initial investment, which is fine.
What I will say is that I'm generally hopeless at saving money, I have the habit to spend it, so it's still a very good thing to have invested the money, regardless and more than likely will increase dramatically in the years to come.
What I will say is that I'm generally hopeless at saving money, I have the habit to spend it, so it's still a very good thing to have invested the money, regardless and more than likely will increase dramatically in the years to come.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I hope we get more articles like this once M3 ramps, it’s only a matter of time before the stock propells upward.
Tesla Model 3: Model S Market Dominance Could Foreshadow Future | Inverse
Tesla Model 3: Model S Market Dominance Could Foreshadow Future | Inverse
Reciprocity
Active Member
Shorts love to short the bottoms. If Tesla ramps to 2500/w over the next couple of weeks, they will be broke quick. There is zero reason to believe they can't. I have a conspiracy theory that all this Vin secrecy lately is a bear trap. A perfect storm setup originally by legitimate shut down in production for either dual motor tooling or fixing some production issues ahead of the availability of 2500 packs a week. Not an advice.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I have read 100 Tesla articles and this is only one of very few that calls this out. I don't think most investors even know how dominant Tesla is in the actual segments they are in. When people compare model S sales to bolts and volts and Prius, they have missed the punch line.
This dominance in a world where Tesla is new and restricted in a lot of markets. Even in the US they can't sell in many states and people have to go through a lot just to test drive car much less buy it. In Chicago, people have to come from Wisconsin and Michigan. Those are not small markets. As recently called out by Elon, there are unfair import duties on American cars all over the world and China and India, who needs EVs more then any other place on Earth, are the Worst. And Europe is not much better. As Dez Bryant would say.. "fix that ish Rich!" (Inside joke for hardcore Dallas Cowboy's fans)
All the reasons the "competition threat" is nonsense have been covered here at great length.
Adam Jonas can't count battery production GWh and who has it. He also fails to realize the market demand for long range EVs
is only limited by their price vs ICE vehicles, the availability of many good choices and the rate at which global battery production can ramp.
Here's my bear-trap theory. They don't have to apply for/notify VINs very far in advance. 49 CFR 565 specifies only that the decoding information for any particular sub-type has to be submitted 60 days in advance for the sale of any such vehicle. I think the first dual motor VIN was registered about 60 days ago, but the decoding information was in place before that anyway. I couldn't find any requirement at all that specifies when an individual VIN has to be registered with them, so I am assuming it's just before the vehicle is sold. This leads me to think that maybe they're holding back submitting a bunch of VINs with many dual motors. Actual deliveries don't seem to me to have really slowed, so maybe we're soon to see a really large block of VINs and the start of dual motor deliveries. That should do nice things to the stock.
My trap theory (shhh don't tell) is that they are storing enough packs and parts at Fremont to end Q1 with 2 weeks of greater than 2.5k production. Two weeks shows it's not a fluke and gives them a week of pretesting just in case.
Still a big problem when Q1 delivers falls way short. This has always been the main driver and not few days of inflated run rate.
I’m bracing for a big drop in SP by selling other holdings that been doing well. Back up the truck.
Sure, but if the production number is high, I think people will forgive a delivery number that is low due to time required from factory to driveway. Especially since those would all be delivered by the Q1 full report and could be included as supporting information.
My scenario is not a few days of inflated run rate, it's one to two full weeks of 2.5k production. (As long at the new pack line gets in, they will be able to catch up to 2.5k then 5k in Q2)
Perspective and optimism I suppose.
Tesla will eventually hit these numbers so just matter of time. I’m not betting on either 2.5K or 5K on time. A quarter or two late is more reasonable / realistic to me.
Also hitting these numbers at end of the last possible week/day is meaningless as the bears and FUDsters equates that run rate the entire quarter with actual deliveries.
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