TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[shootformoon]

About the ZEV credit, 2018 is 4.5% and 2019 is 7%. Can the credit be bought in 2018 and used/counted in 2019? If not, I suspect ZEV sales for tsla at tens of millions, not much more.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's who companies use when they are preparing for M&A.

Tesla hired an expert as C.A.O. with past experience taking Seagate private and then public again. After the decision not to go private was announced, the new hire left. I think Elon had good advice at all stages. I'm not going to 2nd guess his moves. Cheers!

 

[scaesare]

For liability reasons, none of the dealers would allow it. I know I would not have done it. I would also want control of the narrative. You lose that with volunteers without proper training.

 

[scaesare]

You promised it...

Citation needed.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

When other manufacturers introduce a new model you can order any configuration you want from a "strippee" to a fully loaded unit with every option. No restrictions.

Stop lying.

If a car has high enough demand, it gets a waiting list. And no one on that waiting list gets a stripped version. Some people aren’t even able to get on the waiting list.

To be fair to you, maybe you weren’t a successful enough dealer to get allotted any waiting list cars. But surely, you heard of more successful dealers who were allotted some high-demand cars, and were able to apply hefty dealer markups to those cars.

Or maybe Ford didn’t have any high-demand cars back in your days as a dealer. I don’t know. I know they had a waiting list (and delays!) for the Ford GT, and they have one for the return of the Ford Bronco.

 

[Artful Dodger]

BREAKING: Shortsville Times

Mercedes unleashes their new 'Tesla-killer'.

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt rule in the Valley of Elon.

Bankwupcy Eminent.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I was a Ford dealer. Never had anything I could not order unless a particular option was supplier backed up due to high demand. Even then it was just delayed, not "unavailable".

Oh, you mean like the SR version of the Model 3? That particular option is backed up due to the high demand for LR versions soaking up all the supply. Of course, the SR is just delayed, not “unavailable.”

 

[SOULPEDL]

British Columbia is going through what Ontario did in June: Rushing to beat a fund running out of money for EV rebates. That is the reason for the Vancouver push (along with EOQ).

Oh good, 2 cities deliver Tesla's then. I was worried there for a bit...

 

[EVNow]

When other manufacturers introduce a new model you can order any configuration you want from a "strippee" to a fully loaded unit with every option. No restrictions. Most dealers stock units across the board for different types of buyers.

Not true at all. Just look at the history of Leaf, for eg.

If you are saying, Tesla advertised a low price while taking bookings only to offer more expensive models later on, I wonder where they learnt that from ?

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Here they come...

 

[brian45011]

... Elon explained exactly why he had to send the tweet in this Tesla blog post on Aug 13:

To be clear, when I made the public announcement, just as with this blog post and all other discussions I have had on this topic, I am speaking for myself as a potential bidder for Tesla."​

Does that admission obviate Tesla's Directors' & Officers' Liability Insurance carrier's duty to provide a defense to Elon in Shareholder Derivative Litigation arising out of his series of tweets on Aug 7? Also, is the corporation's indemnity for the benefit of its officers and directors when acting on behalf of the corporation inapplicable when an individual acts, not in his capacity as an officer or director but, for himself and other interests?

 

[Skryll]

It's only a ridiculous price if the company grows to where we think it will go. They can't do that without a ton of cash.

Like, say, from selling a shieeeeet ton of unbelievably awesome cars at high margin? "Driving it is like playing a video game in god mode. It’s so much better than any car it’s like cheating."

 

[Skryll]

It seems you are saying that if Tesla can keep selling heavily optioned LR cars they should hold off on SR units unless they generate a greater profit? That is a horrible idea. Every other automaker builds a full line of cars, trucks or SUVs. Each model can be ordered in a variety of price points.

It's the shorts last hope 'tesla only makes luxury cars nobody can afford" they will be devastated when tesla actually follows their mission statement and puts the 35k model into the mix of produced cars in order to accelerate the transition to renewable energy in transportation. This is actually what will kill the ICE car, especially once apartement parking lot, workplace and destination charging is more common.

 

[Nathan]

Does that admission obviate Tesla's Directors' & Officers' Liability Insurance carrier's duty to provide a defense to Elon in Shareholder Derivative Litigation arising out of his series of tweets on Aug 7? Also, is the corporation's indemnity for the benefit of its officers and directors when acting on behalf of the corporation inapplicable when an individual acts, not in his capacity as an officer or director but, for himself and other interests?

Wasn't this discussed ad nauseam a couple of weeks ago? Jeez. Cant we just hold off discussing this until there is an actual ruling. Thanks!

 

[RobStark]

About the ZEV credit, 2018 is 4.5% and 2019 is 7%. Can the credit be bought in 2018 and used/counted in 2019? If not, I suspect ZEV sales for tsla at tens of millions, not much more.

CARB ZEV credits never expire. A 2017 credit can be sold or redeemed in 2027 or 2037. Or least until their are no ICEv sold that need credits against.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Car sales set to crash after dealers flood the market to beat new green tests
Interesting. Article states ICE manufacturers have been flooding their Dealer networks with cars before new emission standards come into effect due to VW Dieselgate. Since Tesla is the only auto manufacture that only reports figures once car is sold to individuals and all others report figures once cars are sold Dealers, last few months have of ICE auto sales have been exaggerated and soon they will need to reconcile the numbers, expecting a crash in sales. Perhaps this should make it to front back news as Tesla will certainly buck this trend.

I think that article is about dealers in the UK.

 

[bhtooefr]

The $25k Tesla might never happen as a new car platform, instead we could see a gradual reduction in Model 3 base pricing to perhaps $30k or $29k. Lower mass cars have trade-offs in safety, and I'm not sure Tesla should be making compact cars.

There's a few cases where smaller cars would be helpful to expand addressable market outside of the US - addressable market isn't a problem for Tesla, but once production is stabilized, increasing it can't hurt.

The Model 3 is pretty similar in size to the Audi A4/A5, BMW 3/4-series, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class (the A4, A5 Sportback, and C-Class are a bit longer) that it most directly competes against, although with interior space approaching that of the next size class up (A6/A7, 5/6-series, E-Class). (Also worth noting that the new A-Class sedan is close to the Model 3 in size on the bottom end.)

However, there's significant demand for smaller cars, even in the premium segment (and of course the Model 3 attracts buyers that don't see the point of the premium segment), especially in non-American markets, where driving in more crowded cities is common, and therefore a narrower and shorter car is desired. This is the space that the Audi A3, the BMW 1/2-series, and the Mercedes-Benz A-Class hatch, being 10-19 inches shorter than the Model 3 depending on model and body style, and a couple inches narrower than the Model 3. Or, if that's not enough, there's the Audi A1 and Mini Hatch, at 27-34 inches shorter, and over 4 inches narrower. (I'm using figures without mirrors for this, to be consistent.)

That's a significant difference when navigating tight streets not designed for cars, and parking in tight parking spaces.

Also consider that sometimes the lower mass cars get an enthusiast following, too - better handling, after all.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't see why anyone would pay double for solar panels.

They might pay double for a roof that won't get destroyed every time there's a big hail storm. Probably a significant insurance discount on that.

 

[Beltsbear]

The only customer that seems to matter is the one willing to take delivery right now who is paying cash or has a loan approved.

I think that’s a pretty good requirement. If they don’t have the cash or a loan approved they aren’t going to be a paying customer.

 

[Fact Checking]

This is the space that the Audi A3, the BMW 1/2-series, and the Mercedes-Benz A-Class hatch, being 10-19 inches shorter than the Model 3 depending on model and body style, and a couple inches narrower than the Model 3. Or, if that's not enough, there's the Audi A1 and Mini Hatch, at 27-34 inches shorter, and over 4 inches narrower. (I'm using figures without mirrors for this, to be consistent.)

That's a significant difference when navigating tight streets not designed for cars, and parking in tight parking spaces.

Also consider that sometimes the lower mass cars get an enthusiast following, too - better handling, after all.

Very good points, I was (way) too focused on the pricing aspect - but dimension and general form factor is indeed a big parameter that is essential to the ~55% of humanity who is living in cities.