Perhaps you are not following the mathematics involved here. Let me spell it out. Suppose 65% growth in market share for the next few years.
2018 2.2%
2019 3.63%
2020 5.99%
2021 9.88%
2022 16.3%
Check out what happens in 2021. EV penetration jumps about 4%. Meanwhile the global auto market only grows about 3% in a typical year. So in 2021, EVs capture so much share that ICE is likely to decline in volume.
So global ICE sales are likely to go into structural decline by 2021. Certainly, one could point to certain national markets that will peak several years later than the global peak. But for OEMs that serve a broad international market this will be of little relief. Growth opportunities for ICE will quickly retreat into niches.
By 2022, another 6% market share for ICE would be lost. The pace of market share loss will quicken until EVs command about half of the market.
So the next two years could be sluggish growth for ICE, the next year will be flat to slightly declining, then 4 years out the bottom can fall out of the ICE market.
Now all this has been based on the assumption that growth continues at about 65% for the next 4 years. Many people have a hard time believing that the pace can remain that robust. But just as one can imagine scenarios where the rate slows substantially, one can also imagine that it speeds up. For example, China is more than doubling every year. If this continues, then the global growth rate will actually accelerate as Chinese and other high growth markets come to dominate. Those who want to shake their heads in disbelief need to identify a near term factor that can dramatically slow down EV uptake around the world. The problem is that we are only about 3 years from peak ICE, so that does not leave much time for brakes to be applied.
