TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Steve m]

Tesla will screen 'Cars 3' at Gigafactory as thank you to employees

THANKING THEM FOR ALL THEIR HARD WORK BECAUSE THEIR WORK WILL BE NO LONGER NEEDED.

No more demand. Tesla has thousands of cars stashed all over the United States that couldn't be sold.

Unraveling a Tesla Mystery: Lots (and Lots) of Parked Cars

THOUGH SERIOUSLY - a shorty air force?

"At least one has access to a plane and shoots high-resolution photographs from the air."

Can I sign up for the Tesla AntiAircraft battery team?

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Tesla will be missed. Will only see them in movies.

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@beachbum77

Help me out Donn! Is it

1.) Tesla can't produce them?
2.) No one wants them?
3.) Tesla trying not to sell them to not lose money on more cars?
4.) Tesla running out of spare parts because they are using spare parts to build cars no one wants?

 

[Bet TSLA]

I certainly believe that he was being truthful in this instance, Since we both seem to agree on that, do you think there are any consequences for Q3 OpEx?

Sure. I think they've spent lots of money on deliveries, far more than if it had gone smoothly. Doubling deliveries didn't scale nicely, what was more or less laminar flow turned into massive turbulence, and they had to brute force their way around the problems.

But it sounds like they're going to try to go more towards home delivery. This certainly eliminates one chokepoint. And as FSD gets better, perhaps the cars will start to deliver themselves. Summon will eventually be truly awesome!

 

[Steve m]

If there was an excessive inventory of model 3 cars why would Panasonic be expanding their gigafactory cell production?

That Pamasonic would be doing so while the shorts know their is excessive m3 inventory implies that the shorts know more then Panasonic does.

Yea right

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Sure. I think they've spent lots of money on deliveries, far more than if it had gone smoothly. Doubling deliveries didn't scale nicely, what was more or less laminar flow turned into massive turbulence, and they had to brute force their way around the problems.

But it sounds like they're going to try to go more towards home delivery. This certainly eliminates one chokepoint. And as FSD gets better, perhaps the cars will start to deliver themselves. Summon will eventually be truly awesome!

Yes. Difficult to see it coming in lower than $1.2 bn.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Have you not read the Panasonic/Tesla agreement?

Sorry - meant to be a response to Steve m.

 

[RobStark]

Unfortunately I'd get thrown out via peremptory challenge.

Somehow the SEC wouldn't want a guy that
Owns two Teslas
Has Tesla shares
Wears a boring hat.

I get thrown off first!

 

[Fact Checking]

Not quite - rather I was trying to demonstrate with which part of your comment I agreed.

No, you didn't: firstly you quoted a snipped version of @shrspeedblade sentence that changed the meaning of it, then you "agreed" with that artificially modified meaning, trying to create the false impression that @shrspeedblade agrees with you.

And now you are also, to not put a too fine point on it, lying about your deception shamelessly.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

No, you didn't: firstly you quoted a snipped version of @shrspeedblade sentence that changed the meaning of it, then you "agreed" with that artificially modified meaning, trying to create the false impression that @shrspeedblade agrees with you.

And now you are also, to not put a too fine point on it, lying about your deception shamelessly.

I think you are failing to read this accurately.

@shrspeedblade originally said "Tesla will probably dribble some out next year, but as long as the LR demand eats up production, or the SR PuP eats up production, or the SR with EAP eats up production, why would Tesla ever CHOOSE to crank out 10,000 SR ZO (zero option) Model 3s per month?"

I think that, whether Tesla chooses to dribble some out next year or not, "as long as the LR demand eats up production, or the SR PuP eats up production, or the SR with EAP eats up production, why would Tesla ever CHOOSE to crank out 10,000 SR ZO (zero option) Model 3s per month?"

Does that help?

By the way, I don't think you are lying or deceiving (though you may benefit from lying down for a while and taking a few deep breaths).

 

[Yggdrasill]

Question for the old timers on "logistics hell".

A wise man once said (in November 2017), "There's no indication Tesla has in place an adequate number of trained personnel to handle the crush of transporting, delivering, and servicing all the new Model 3s.

A logistical nightmare is just as likely as trimming fat from the bone."

Who was that, and can we still benefit from his insights?

Tesla's logistics nightmare stems from trying to deliver huge numbers of cars in a small window of time in only the US and Canada. If we say they delivered 10k Model 3's in the final week alone, annualized, that's 520k Model 3's per year, and again, only in the US and Canada.

Once Tesla on more secure footing with regards to consistent profits and positive cash flow, I expect they will start planning for more even distribution of deliveries. That will lead to a higher number of vehicles in transit at end of quarter, but that's fine, as long as Tesla is profitable and has sufficient cash.

After delivering a peak of 520k Model 3's par year annualized, consistently delivering 300k Model 3's per year through the same interface will seem like a piece of cake.

 

[mrdoubleb]

If we can get to 340-350 range and stay there for a week or two before earnings it should be good enough to tip the iceberg over in our favor. A profitable announcement in November should do the job, followed by “highly profitable” in 4th Q..

If we beat margins again this time it’ll be a huge bonus.

Yeah. Somewhere between the Q3 delivery numbers and the earnings report all those analysts will be forced to revise their numbers. But even more conservative holdouts will have to do that once Q4 deliveries and warnings are out. Considering we were in the 380s a few months ago with nothing but the promise of a ramp going better and projected profitability, logically we should be above 400 within the next 3-6 months once these projections (that hardly anyone at Wall Street believed) are actually proven to be true.
Most of the shorts are already transiting their narrative to Q3 ER being a scam due to cost pulled to Q2 or pushed to Q4 and delivery numbers inflated by the 200k limit hold back. Now I am quite sure they will find a way to argue TSLAQ even after Q4, they are pretty creative that way, but two blowout quarters will change the mainstream narrative and their noise will be much less effective.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Tesla's logistics nightmare stems from trying to deliver huge numbers of cars in a small window of time in only the US and Canada. If we say they delivered 10k Model 3's in the final week alone, annualized, that's 520k Model 3's per year, and again, only in the US and Canada.

Once Tesla on more secure footing with regards to consistent profits and positive cash flow, I expect they will start planning for more even distribution of deliveries. That will lead to a higher number of vehicles in transit at end of quarter, but that's fine, as long as Tesla is profitable and has sufficient cash.

After delivering a peak of 520k Model 3's par year annualized, consistently delivering 300k Model 3's per year through the same interface will seem like a piece of cake.

Also of note, some one here or over on Reddit did some math a few days ago on cars sold per dealership. Shows Tesla is delivering 3-4x the cars BMW USA does per dealership. (Tesla has 112 stores and BMW ~380 I think).

 

[Ulmo]

That response was ok in the past (you are not expected to commit to a significant personal sacrifice if the real solution obviously has to happen on a global level), and it's changing dramatically with a Model 3 that costs $50k, $40k and $30k (after incentives).

There will be no excuse left not to own a Tesla: they are better, cheaper, more future proof and don't poison our living space like gasoline cars do.

Within 3-5 years I expect the ownership of new gasoline cars to carry a significant social stigma, especially in (sub-)urban, liberal communities.

I think that will be visibly true in 15 to 20 years.

 

[Xpert]

If we can get to 340-350 range and stay there for a week or two before earnings it should be good enough to tip the iceberg over in our favor. A profitable announcement in November should do the job, followed by “highly profitable” in 4th Q..

If we beat margins again this time it’ll be a huge bonus.

We should beat margin, it has not been an issue. Last Q was a beat. Should also beat this quarter easily and Q4... Production targets are what tesla sometimes misses

 

[Fact Checking]

Unless its just a handful of people doing all the shorting, its unlikely to be a conspiracy. By their very nature large conspiracies don't work - someone will talk. This is the reason 9/11 being a CIA conspiracy or Climate change being a hoax etc are unlikely to be true.

Firstly, phrasing it like that is a false dichotomy, the possible states aren't just full conspiracy or no conspiracy at all.

Secondly, a much more important point is that shorts don't need an explicit global conspiracy in the classical sense:

• The Tesla short modus operandi is the exceedingly simple, hundreds of years old tactics of the stock dumper con artist: "try to lie as much about Tesla as you can, shape your lies to your audience via affinity fraud and try to get away with it". That type of attack requires very little coordination.
• Another channel of communication is simply the price action: shorts know that herding is beneficial and they know when to and how to sell to mark down the price.

Sometimes the attacks batch up and reach a crescendo, especially around negative news that give their lies and disinformation a kernel of truth.

Third, there's a huge difference between the 9/11 attack murdering thousands of people, and a well-coordinated "bear attack" defrauding (tens of) thousands of investors by a couple of thousand dollars each - few of which would even notice that money was stolen from them.

In the culture of Wall Street and in particular in the culture of New York vulture hedge funds everything is a zero-sum game, there's very little value creation: the dollars you earn today is taken from some other trader counter-party - har-har the loser.

This creates both a certain level of callous, cynical, anti-social acceptance of the parasitic freeloading that activist shorts perform in, and also creates a circle of silence regarding trades and positions: very little about trades performed is leaking from those circles to the outside world. Just have a look at @Papafox's trading charts and analysis to see data points for when there's more than just spontaneous coordination of selling before upcoming Tesla-negative events.

The market manipulation is not common by any means, and it's certainly very far from being a daily occurrence, but it's happening frequently enough to probably put most of those people in jail if the law was enforced to the letter.

Summary: is there some sort of grand criminal conspiracy with daily conference calls between Chanos, Spiegel and Left, instructing David, Dana and Linette what new false narrative to dump on Tesla and coordinating their trading? Very unlikely, for the reasons you outlined.

But is there a loose coalition of 33 million shares short sellers with largely aligned interests, who read each other, who pass along information to each other occasionally, who have good media, analyst and regulatory contacts, who are lying about Tesla almost non-stop, and who will, if the opportunity presents itself trade on 'anonymous' tips very likely to be insider information, in the sure knowledge that the SEC is looking the other way while they are performing their criminal "stock dumping" market manipulation activities? You bet.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Tesla's logistics nightmare stems from trying to deliver huge numbers of cars in a small window of time in only the US and Canada. If we say they delivered 10k Model 3's in the final week alone, annualized, that's 520k Model 3's per year, and again, only in the US and Canada.

Once Tesla on more secure footing with regards to consistent profits and positive cash flow, I expect they will start planning for more even distribution of deliveries. That will lead to a higher number of vehicles in transit at end of quarter, but that's fine, as long as Tesla is profitable and has sufficient cash.

After delivering a peak of 520k Model 3's par year annualized, consistently delivering 300k Model 3's per year through the same interface will seem like a piece of cake.

Yes, I agree with that - the impact will be more to Q3/4 cashflow & profitability.

 

[Xpert]

No, you didn't: firstly you quoted a snipped version of @shrspeedblade sentence that changed the meaning of it, then you "agreed" with that artificially modified meaning, trying to create the false impression that @shrspeedblade agrees with you.

And now you are also, to not put a too fine point on it, lying about your deception shamelessly.

Desperate time for him, he has to resort to desperate measures, understandable. Unfortunately, He would need to get out of shorting ASAP and go long to prevent further pain incoming. This is an advice.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Desperate time for him, he has to resort to desperate measures, understandable. Unfortunately, He would need to get out of shorting ASAP and go long to prevent further pain incoming. This is an advice.

And I always appreciate advice, even though I may not choose to accept it, so thank you.

 

[lklundin]

“The diesel is a critical component in our efforts to reach the 2020 climate targets,” said BMW chairman Harald Krüger. “It is very important in improving the overall efficiency of our future models.”

New 2019 BMW 3 Series leaked ahead of official reveal | Autocar

How long before he can reuse the below, famous speech?

Nokia's chief executive to staff: 'we are standing on a burning platform'

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yes, I agree with that - the impact will be more to Q3/4 cashflow & profitability.

The effects are transient, though. A couple of quarters of building up the number of cars in transit, while still ensuring they deliver enough cars to be profitable, and Tesla will be in a quite good place.

Profits should actually increase with evened out deliveries, as Tesla will pay less overtime, lower transportation costs, etc. And customers will be more happy.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla stock could go as high as $4,000 within the next five years, expert says

I hope everyone will be hanging around here for the next 5 years.