TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[brian45011]

article is stuck behind a paywall

Try the Dow Jones News Wire

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

LOL... I am on the sidelines. I can't get a reading on where this SP is headed. One news story in either direction could have it soaring or plunging. Guess that means it is time to go private again?

Are you on the sidelines or...

These small dips that you call "noise" are hugely profitable to options traders. We made more money in the last seven days then we made all last year which was also a new record. Where has being long, and focused on the future, gotten you in the last 7 days?

... are you not?

And why do you constantly announce your trades only after you have supposedly closed them with a profit? Why not announce them after you opened them?

On a sidenote: last year cannot have been very good if 7 days of trading in a 50 point range produced the same result.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

a few more posts, and I'll have the whole thing copied....

According to the WSJ, "the judge said it was her regular practice to request a justification letter"

 

[brian45011]

We'll probably get that from the 13Fs.

Right, in mid-February 2019

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Right, in mid-February 2019

Patience is a virtue.

 

[Tslynk67]

If TSLA was falling because the broader indexes are falling, why did TSLA fall yesterday when those same indexes were rising??

Because it's $TSLA, doh!

 

[SpaceCash]

Are you on the sidelines or...



... are you not?

And why do you constantly announce your trades only after you have supposedly closed them with a profit? Why not announce them after you opened them?

On a sidenote: last year cannot have been very good if 7 days of trading in a 50 point range produced the same result.

Because he's a lying liar and agent of FUD, with no novel ideas or thoughts at all. He should not be given any respect whatsoever. A leech.

 

[wipster]

Wondering who supplies them the names of those who traded after the tweet?

Anybody believes these class action suits have perspective? If Elon is asked to cover losses of everybody who traded between the tweet and the reversal of the decision...don't think you can be rich enough for this.

I traded and bought more Tesla stock on the probability that it was on it's way to $420 and I've lost my ass (on paper) since. But I don't hold Elon responsible for MY DECISION to trade. I think it's total BS that people can blame him for this (possible) loss due to his stating his thoughts over social media. I agree it was not the smartest idea to do so, but unless it can be proven without a doubt that his intent was to injure shorts, he should not be required to make them well. Especially as many of them have made out like fracking bandits in the interim.

The stock market is really nothing but educated gambling when you get down to it post IPO and unless he did something illegal, I don't feel he owes anything to anyone.

And that's all I've got to say about that.

 

[Joe F]

No problem. I know the thread is always in need of realism and I'm happy to contribute.

You misspelled surrealism.

 

[brian45011]

If the judge is required to sign off on the settlement, does that mean they can refuse the settlement and force the court case to proceed?

Judges like to move cases off their docket ASAP

Alternatively, could they throw out the case altogether?

Judicial activism?

 

[Smokey4141]

Your failure to see that Tesla is financially self-sustaining shows that you don't understand financial analysis. At all.

It's very simple. In an economies of scale business, there are fixed costs.

You make money on each car you sell. In order to make a profit, you must sell enough cars to cover your fixed costs.

If you sell fewer cars than that each month, you make a loss. If you sell more, you make a profit. This makes the firm financially self-sustaining.

It is straightforward to calculate how many cars Tesla needed to sell each month to make a profit. They are making more than that number of cars now.

The number of cars needed could have been predicted before the company was founded, and in fact many of us did calculate it back then, and it hasn't changed.

You say that all so matter-of-fact'ly.....

How about "Variable Costs"? For starters.... Good Lord....

Completely overlooked in your whole post...

 

[generalenthu]

Gasparino claims SEC continues to investigate investigate over other production claims.

Aren't these covered under forward looking statements thingy?

Charles Gasparino on Twitter

 

[neroden]

I'm sorry, but I have to call you out on this, because it's nonsense.

Traders aren't creating algo trading so they can take longer lunches - although plenty of companies have implemented algo trading to reduce reliance on traders.

OK, fair 'nuff. So it's another "trying to avoid paying employees" thing. That makes sense, most of American business has destroyed itself that way.

Algo trading is entirely about faster rules based trading based on pretty short term signals.

In other worse, technical chart trading. Short-term technicals trading. Like I said.

Other types of automated trading using machine learning might take into account longer term trends etc and broader market conditions, but by and large human traders are better at doing that right now, than machines.

Indeed they are.

Incidentally machine learning that uses NLP, for example ORX News or Bloomberg, is a lot more sophisticated than you imply when you talk about 'idiotic headline readers'.

No, it's not sophisticated AT ALL. I mean, we can actually prove how unsophisticated it is with stuff like the flash crashes which were caused by recycling of several-year-old articles where any human with half a brain would have noticed that it wasn't current news. It's very, very easily manipulated.

Such cognitive assistance goes to traders, not directly to autonomous machines. At least not anywhere that I know of, and this is literally my area of professional expertise.

If all the newsreader-bot stuff goes through actual human traders, and the traders proceed to trade as stupidly as they did when they caused the flash crashes, the traders are extreme idiots. Really, really extreme idiots. "Three martini lunch" level idiots who are using the programs specifically to be lazy.

Which means I'm right about the point which you claimed was "nonsense".

Incidentally, the front running you mentioned (I assume you're referring to the type of trading mentioned in Flash Boys) is a specific type of Algo Trading (HFT) which today is impossible to do manually. However in the good old days, this was very much done manually and even had a fancy name - arbitrage. Arbitrage was not, and still is not illegal.

Of course not. However, front-running other people's orders, which is a major part of HFT, is illegal.

Almost all HFT does a kind of arbitrage, picking up fractions of cents on the very small movements in price. What you read in Flashboys (which is truly front running) is not the majority of algo-trading, even if your best ethical and political scruples might think that's true.

While front-running is not the majority of algorithmic trading, it's reliably profitable and companies put huge amounts of money into front running, and don't get arrested for it. And it is the driving force behind *HFT*. Most algorithmic trading isn't HFT. The only reasons to do HFT would be for front-running or arbitrage. Thee only reason to do it for arbitrage would be to beat some other arbitrageur -- and there are so many arbitrage opportunities that it doesn't even make sense to invest a dollar into being faster to do that. For front-running, on the other hand, it's worth putting the money into get the fast execution.

If you're just taking money off of fluctuations in price, you simply don't need to go that fast. There's plenty of volatility and wide spreads and arbitrage opportunities on timescales of seconds or minutes. (I mean, look at TSLA.) But if you're trying to front-run, you absolutely do need to go that fast.

 

[neroden]

You say that all so matter-of-fact'ly.....

How about "Variable Costs"? For starters.... Good Lord....

Completely overlooked in your whole post...

I attempted to dumb it down enough for beachbum to understand it. Obviously I can give a much more complete model, but it flies over the head of the people I'm trying to explain it to.

 

[humbaba]

Well, well, a positive Tesla article from CNN: Tesla's Model 3 is best selling US luxury car

If by "positive" you mean putting a negative spin on everything. I think I can fairly sum it up as: "Sure, Tesla's M3 is the best selling luxury sedan, but it was supposed to be competing as a mass-market car at which it failed."

When you can't refute facts (best selling luxury sedan) change the frame to suit you better (failure as a mass-market car).

 

[Smokey4141]

Dang.... I always thought Pyramid schemes were illegal... Oh well.... Nice work if you can get it...

Electrek's Editor-in-Chief and Publisher Are Both Scoring Free $250K Tesla Roadsters by Gaming Referral Program

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Gasparino claims SEC continues to investigate investigate over other production claims.

Aren't these covered under forward looking statements thingy?

Charles Gasparino on Twitter

Guidance is generally covered under forward-looking statements, but it needs to still be possible. It's illegal to give guidance that you know to be impossible (or, in SEC speak, "reckless in not knowing that it wasn't possible").

The WSJ had previously reported that the SEC had been investigating Tesla before Musk's August 7th tweetstorm. When the SEC was asked about other investigations at their press conference on Friday, they answered "no comment."

 

[neroden]

The propaganda machine of TSLA shorts has revved up a notch, the Q3 deliveries report nullification was brilliant, even as a hardened, cynical observer I didn't expect some professional financial news sevices to blatantly lie about the deliveries report and characterize it as a "miss":

Tesla Q3 Financials Estimates & My 99.6% Accurate Delivery Estimate | CleanTechnica

See the TheStreet numbers there: which were "revised" but not before the bogus "Tesla missed" article was widely syndicated...

So that was a nice coup.

We really need to either get the SEC on that one or find a lead and file a lawsuit because that was *blatantly* illegal market manipulation. We now have a thread for that...

 

[X Fan]

Dang.... I always thought Pyramid schemes were illegal... Oh well.... Nice work if you can get it...

Electrek's Editor-in-Chief and Publisher Are Both Scoring Free $250K Tesla Roadsters by Gaming Referral Program

I gather he’ll start publishing positive articles again

 

[neroden]

This remark is racist. Mr. Spock consistently and clearly identifies as Vulcan. Who are you to suggest he is "human", or "half" anything?

Please rewatch Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home. At the end of that movie, Mr. Spock recognizes and appreciates his human heritage as well as his Vulcan heritage, and celebrates his multicultural background.

(His last line in that movie is one of the best lines ever, but it makes no sense out of context -- you have to watch the whole movie.)