Ummmm, I don't know what you're trying to say. Obviously any press has to be of the correct size and type for the parts which are to be made, and Tesla will have to make custom die sets regardless of whether they get a new or used press line. But the lead time on a new press line may be longer than the lead time on a new die set.
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Ummmm, I don't know what you're trying to say. Obviously any press has to be of the correct size and type for the parts which are to be made, and Tesla will have to make custom die sets regardless of whether they get a new or used press line. But the lead time on a new press line may be longer than the lead time on a new die set.
Brando
Active Member
nano manage? what, you worked there? He has over 40,000 employees and consider all that SpaceX and Tesla Motors and Tesla Energy has done in the last 15 years - no way ANYONE could micro manage let a lone nano mange these two companies.
You're the second on my ignore list.
Brando
Active Member
Why has NO other car company been able to offer reasonable competitive car to Tesla offerings?
Is there even a competitive electric to the original Roadster? That would seem simple to do. Where is Lotus offering??
IF price is no limit we have Rimac - but none that I know of anywhere near 500 per year.
Yeah, if anything it indicates that the SEC was sloppy, becasue normally the SEC includes a section explaining why the settlement was fair and reasonable and in the public interest. Did they leave that out?
Emphasis mine. In short, they were supposed to file a letter (it's standard practice in this court) and they haven't done so yet. This is a clear statement that this is boilerplate box-ticking.
That's.... weird. And looks seriously suspicious. I had thought the SEC was just going about its business, but if there was some kind of rush to resolve the case before the end of September, that speaks to corrupt motives on the part of the SEC lawyers. The plot thickens.
Krugerrand
Meow
It depends.
Industry standard for new press line is 12 months.
Industry standard for new die set from new design to run rate is 12 months.
The time to ‘duplicate’ an existing die set would be less than 12 months, HOWEVER, if you’re putting the ‘duplicate’ into a different press line (ie., different brand that can accommodate the die set) then time needs to be added to the back end in terms of trial time and achieving run rate. You can’t just plug and play. Doesn’t work that way.
So it’s just best to assume 12 months for press line and dies.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the extremely useful information.
I was under the impression that *really really large* press lines had a longer lead time than 12 months because they were even more "custom order" than most press lines. (Tesla may need one of those for the Semi; they got one *huge* one used for the Fremont factory.) Am I wrong about that?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note the original claim by @neroden:
"The fact that the firm is financially self sustaining"
To which @beachbum77 replied:
""The fact the the firm is financially self sustaining" Can you please link your reference(s) to this statement? None of us are seeing this "fact" yet. Neither does the broader market either."
Make this argument pretty much anywhere outside this forum and you instantly discredit yourself as an out of touch Tesla fanboy, and expose yourself to the immediate, obvious counterattack:
"Please cite me a single quarterly statement from 2017 or 2018 where Tesla wasn't burning cash and making massive losses. There were 6 such statements filed with the SEC, which one should I be looking at?"
To which there's no real good, effective answer that won't immediately be discredited.
Financial self-sustenance is not a "fact" for the investing public until there's a recent quarterly statement showing it, and IMHO we shouldn't pretend it is.
It's much better to simply lay out the facts and let the reader come to the obvious conclusion:
"Tesla's heavy investments to dominate the luxury car market are finally bearing fruit, their latest sales smashed all records and right now Tesla is very likely robustly cash flow positive.
See this Bloomberg interview with Romit Sash, top ranked lead analyst at Nomura Instinet, with no position in Tesla, where he makes the observation that at these sales levels Tesla is very likely to be sustainably profitable:
"
Similar information provided, but much more effective presentation that actually has a chance to convince people with an open mind.See this Bloomberg interview with Romit Sash, top ranked lead analyst at Nomura Instinet, with no position in Tesla, where he makes the observation that at these sales levels Tesla is very likely to be sustainably profitable:
Also note that technically it's not a fact yet until Tesla closes the books and files the quarterly report. Our projections might have missed some cost component that ate a lot of cash. They might have failed to sell any ZEV credits or some other surprise. Workers might have decided to exercise $500m in stock options at the peak which created a big GAAP loss. There's a number of of low probability but plausible events that might still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Let's not counter the false uncertainty of the short trolls with false certainty.
I had the impression that this is the broad argument @beachbum77 tried to make - but I could be wrong.
To some degree. If you said, for example, I expect to produce 10,000 widgets next week while knowing full well that your factory could not produce more than 10, it would not be covered. If you said I expect to produce 10,000 widgets next week and then your theoretically capable factory turned out, unknown to you, to be over-automated and infested by fluffabots, you would be.
Brando
Active Member
Production is scheduled to start some time in 2019. I haven't seen Tesla tell us what the body of the SEMI might be made of.Thanks for the extremely useful information.
I was under the impression that *really really large* press lines had a longer lead time than 12 months because they were even more "custom order" than most press lines. (Tesla may need one of those for the Semi; they got one *huge* one used for the Fremont factory.) Am I wrong about that?
Aluminium, Steel, Fiber Glass, Carbon Fiber and even the frame (I assume Steel). First best guess is no doubt Aluminium and Steel as is the Model 3 - but we don't know the costs comparisons and I'm sure Tesla did analysis on build/buy for all parts.
Will be interesting to see if the large single tire will be used vs duals so common on many rigs today.
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