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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Suppose Starlink will one day be worth $50B. Today it is still at a very early stage of development so likely worth less than $100M. So let's say SpaceX sells it to Tesla early on at $100M.

Just fyi, Starlink has had hundreds of engineers working on it for years. It’s already worth billions.
 
I posted this a few moments ago in the Technical Analysis thread, but it may bear repeating here:

This arrived just now by email from one of the technical analysts I used to interview on my TV show.

Today the Total Put/Call ratio closed at 1.26 which has led to higher markets 92% of the time in the next five days with an average gain of 1.8%. We have two different Put/Calls ratio (Index and Total) that suggests a bottom is near. Long SPX on 3/22/18 after market close at 2643.69.

Tim Ord’s website: http://www.ord-oracle.com/
 
I posted this a few moments ago in the Technical Analysis thread, but it may bear repeating here:

This arrived just now by email from one of the technical analysts I used to interview on my TV show.

Today the Total Put/Call ratio closed at 1.26 which has led to higher markets 92% of the time in the next five days with an average gain of 1.8%. We have two different Put/Calls ratio (Index and Total) that suggests a bottom is near. Long SPX on 3/22/18 after market close at 2643.69.

Tim Ord’s website: http://www.ord-oracle.com/

K so what you’re saying is that assuming the market doesn’t crap it’s pants tomorrow we’re going moonbound?
 
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Added a bit more near close today. I continue to like the odds of TSLA climbing very soon. If we happen to drop another $10+, I will find a way to leverage even more. The latest VIN data and invite news look quite positive for a big production burst now. The overall numbers for the quarter will likely look weak but if the ramp is looking much stronger by the end of this month, I think the market will like that, especially with a very beaten down stock. A lot of investors want to buy TSLA when the ramp really gets going. When is that? Maybe sooner than it was looking until very recently. FOMO?
 
K so what you’re saying is that assuming the market doesn’t crap it’s pants tomorrow we’re going moonbound?
I wouldn't assume anything short term, especially as close as tomorrow.

But I see this below happening now

The market thinks we're going to miss M3 2500/wk target significantly, because Bloomberg has been estimating <1000/wk.

However our own data shows the following:
  • 3 batches totaling ~4500 VIN registered in 3 weeks
  • new massive invitation batch sent today
  • VIN assignment scaling to 1500-1900/wk production
  • delivery centers packed till end of month, 4 large sites in CA and TX alone delivering ~700+ M3/week
Basically every box that can indicate a good ramp has been ticked. Plus we removed one major long term risk of Elon not staying with Tesla.

I think the market is completely blind to all these M3 ramp signals, and this presents a golden opportunity. I would buy shares and hold into April and see what shakes out after the delivery report. I still wouldn't use margin, short term options since macro is too volatile and can drag us down at any time.
 
I feel like buying back in more with soem dry powder...do you all think the stock will drop lower than 300?
I missed to buy few options today by the skin of the teeth (was that expression?...).
I've got about 10 rounds of dry powder left. About 10 deployed.
I think I will be buying every $5-$10, if it continues dropping... Model 3 tracker shows quite a lively activity, I think we're between 1200-2000 per week for the last few days
 
I missed to buy few options today by the skin of the teeth (was that expression?...).
I've got about 10 rounds of dry powder left. About 10 deployed.
I think I will be buying every $5-$10, if it continues dropping... Model 3 tracker shows quite a lively activity, I think we're between 1200-2000 per week for the last few days

At these prices it’s hard to resist. I have to make sure to save 1 round after numbers are released.
 
I missed to buy few options today by the skin of the teeth (was that expression?...).
I've got about 10 rounds of dry powder left. About 10 deployed.
I think I will be buying every $5-$10, if it continues dropping... Model 3 tracker shows quite a lively activity, I think we're between 1200-2000 per week for the last few days

1200 = $280
2000 = $360

Quite the range you got there...
 
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