TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

Wrong wrong wrong. Most shorted and undervalued stock in the world. A short squeeze is GOING to happen. Question is when.

While I agree with your sentiment it is entirely possible that the stock price will rise gradually, shorts then cover gradually, without ever hitting a dramatic squeeze. I know I *want* a squeeze to happen: if it does I'll sell during ramp up (no use trying to hit the top) and buy back after it recovers.

But I'm unconvinced that a serious short squeeze will happen rather than a gradual reduction in short interest.

 

[neroden]

Autopilot delay perhaps means that Elon can run the company without outside $$$? Why else come out and say such a thing in such volatile times.

How can they grow exponentially from HERE AND NOW?
They need more batteries

Panasonic is adding three new cell lines as we speak, and new module/pack lines are being installed as we speak.

They need more factories
They need continued better products

There is continuous improvement. Major new-factory capex probably won't happen until next year, apart from the parts already committed.

Do institutions think the same?

I see continued sales levels continuing, not accelerating. Increased sales needed, I dont see short term capacity for more.

We will see growth in deliveries from the elimination of bottlenecks in production & delivery, but probably only "incremental" growth (rather than huge growth) until next year.

 

[dqd88]

Multiples are based on earnings not gross sales.

traditionally yes. for not profitable high growth companies (most are private) obv current earnings are not used for valuation.

 

[HopJokey]

I'm not seeing any strong reason for this — just the jobs numbers? Missed expectations from federal level?

From a macro market level, interest rates (bond yields) are rising fast. That makes debt (which governments have a ton of) more expensive to service. Also if yields are high more money will flow there instead of in riskier assets like property or stocks.

It's nothing crazy just a healthy correction for the time being.

 

[phil0909]

Agreed not huge upside for shorts at this price, a lot of shorts covered last Friday when it hit 260ish. Another go-private is not out of the question, but I'd say more like $350-$400. Musk has a very creative mind he won't let the shorts win easily. Let's see if he will come up with something this weekend. he has a lot of levers to pull: Another go-private, or announce actual GF3 timeline being accelerated, or profit, or GF4 agreement/timeline, or model Y/semi timeline, or some huge power pack contracts.

Any big announcement of future awesomeness at this time would reek of desperation, and would reduce, rather than increase the stock price. New timelines, new products, accelerated factories, etc. - none of that would help.

It's time to deliver. Sustainable profits or a for-real buyout. Those are the only levers, and they either do, or do not, exist.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

If it's part of the signup process, you don't have a choice in the matter.

Except to go to a different broker who doesn't short sell.

And establishing an explicit no-short-selling account is the whole point of this conversation.

You can already do this. You just have to have enough money to be handled by the brokerage as an individual rather than according to standard procedure. $5 million in your brokerage account will do that at almost any brokerage. I suspect there are a few who will do it for $1 million, although I don't know this for a fact. Don't expect $5.99 trades, though.

 

[dqd88]

Similar pattern as yesterday across the market. Broad selloff and then mid afternoon some recovery. In Tesla's case, big beta, enhanced by 1) reaction of EM Tweets and 2) FUD

 

[neroden]

With a 40% tariff in place, I do not expect Tesla to ship Model 3's to China until the tariffs are reduced back to 15-20%. The tariffs killed S & X sales in August. Why send Model s 3's there when you can send them to Europe for immediate sales to eager buyers?

You do realize Tesla's not planning to *ship* Model 3 to China, they're planning to *manufacture* them in China? The US production will be completely claimed by US and European buyers for quite a while.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Hi all -- new here. Been following this board for about the last month since I started acquiring some TSLA shares. Small-fry investor with approximately 50 shares purchased at $267 looking to go long (and gradually increase my holdings).

I understand this question is possibly better asked elsewhere, but am wondering what the board's view is on how a possible US/global recession in 2020 would affect the operations (and therefore stock price) of Tesla. Anyone have thoughts on that they're willing to share?

Looking forward to participating in the discussion going forward.

 

[neroden]

Guys, do you know why are there so many shares available for shorting all of the sudden? Also borrow rate has dropped:

IBorrow Desk

There haven't been so many shares available for shorting since last year.

My theory is that weak longs / some institutional shareholders are dumping their shares and shorts are taking the opportunity for covering. Any thoughts?

I believe it -- I think about half of institutional shareholders were weak longs, and that's a lot of shares.

The interesting thing is the resulting change in the owner makeup. Who's buying? Serious longs, to some extent. Possibly short-term bottom-feeder traders too, though. I'd love to know the split but we won't know for months.

 

[oneday]

You do realize Tesla's not planning to *ship* Model 3 to China, they're planning to *manufacture* them in China? The US production will be completely claimed by US and European buyers for quite a while.

Is this true? You don’t think there will be any model 3 deliveries of US built 3’s?

 

[Todd Burch]

Look! News headlines can even be stupid and FUD-dy on the pro-Tesla side:

So many brainless journalists or editors...

No, morons, company stats do NOT reveal that.

 

[SpaceCash]

While I agree with your sentiment it is entirely possible that the stock price will rise gradually, shorts then cover gradually, without ever hitting a dramatic squeeze. I know I *want* a squeeze to happen: if it does I'll sell during ramp up (no use trying to hit the top) and buy back after it recovers.

But I'm unconvinced that a serious short squeeze will happen rather than a gradual reduction in short interest.

People just don't comprehend how serious the short factor is. 33 million shares DO NOT get covered casually. A dramatic squeeze is inevitable. Not a pipe dream.

 

[Open Interest]

I'm not seeing any strong reason for this — just the jobs numbers? Missed expectations from federal level?

Rates are up 10 basis points since 10/1. The market prefers cheap money.

 

[Big Earl]

Welp, just added more at $267.75. I'm out of dry powder for now, which is probably a good thing.

I beat you by 10 cents. I'm out of dry powder until payday, but I'm 90% of the way to my 100 share goal.

 

[Hogfighter]

I can’t wait for it either. From what I’m reading so far from “analysts”, I think the street will be shocked to see that Tesla has finally turned the corner. How’s the Hog Negativity Index right now?

HNI at an 8. Elon keeps farting in church, but some extremely positive reviews of the 3 can be found.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I beat you by 10 cents. I'm out of dry powder until payday, but I'm 90% of the way to my 100 share goal.

100 shares is my goal as well. First it was 25, then 50...

 

[bdy0627]

Here comes the capping from shorts to limit recovery.

 

[TradingInvest]

I created a thread Ideas that might help to support Tesla

If you have suggestions, please add.

 

[SpaceCash]

Look! News headlines can even be stupid and FUD-dy on the pro-Tesla side:
View attachment 341110

So many brainless journalists or editors...

No, morons, company stats do NOT reveal that.

Tesla absolutely DID confirm that? What is your angle here