TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

This is the lowest TSLA has been in almost a year now

Yet I don't think I've ever been more optimistic. Yes I've been at times been more hopeful on M3 ramp. At this time, I don't hope that M3 will ramp, I know that M3 has been ramping and will continue to ramp.

I'm not here to dismiss the validity of technical analysis. But TA doesn't work all the time, patterns can change quickly when new info comes out. The fact that OptionSniper is buying puts in TSLA reinforces my opinion that we should buy. I think the way OS is reading the chart represent the market expectation that Tesla will miss Q1, and maybe badly, and I think this is one of those time OS and TA's blindspot is actually the strong suit here on TMC, crowd-sourced data on actual production. OS is operating on old pattern, and we have the new info.

 

[mongo]

This is the lowest TSLA has been in almost a year now

View attachment 288604

Yet I don't think I've ever been more optimistic. Yes I've been at times been more hopeful on M3 ramp. At this time, I don't hope that M3 will ramp, I know that M3 has been ramp and will continue to ramp.

I'm not here to dismiss the validity of technical analysis. But TA doesn't work all the time, patterns can change quickly when new info comes out. The fact that OptionSniper is buying puts in TSLA reinforces my opinion that we should buy. I think the way OS is reading the chart represent the market expectation that Tesla will miss Q1, and maybe badly, and I think this is one of those time OS and TA's blindspot is actually the strong suit here on TMC, crowd-sourced data on actual production. OS is operating on old pattern, and we have the new info.

FWIW, OS said they closed out all their positions, so not holding TSLA puts for a Q1 disappointment.

 

[Iceman]

Now that the vote is over for Elon´s package, are there huge volumes of shares available again now for shorts to throw into the market and hold the price down?

Could that be influencing TSLA here?

 

[mongo]

Now that the vote is over for Elon´s package, are there huge volumes of shares available again now for shorts to throw into the market and hold the price down?

Could that be influencing TSLA here?

Nah, the date of record was a while ago (Feb 7th I think).

Well, at least I've cost averaged my $360 purchases down some...

 

[Waiting4M3]

Now that the vote is over for Elon´s package, are there huge volumes of shares available again now for shorts to throw into the market and hold the price down?

Could that be influencing TSLA here?

No, company holds those shares that are earmarked for Elon's pay package. Only Elon can sell those shares, after he gets them.

 

[Iceman]

I believe it's the macros still.

I think you´re right. The TSLA chart for today is pretty much identical to the NVDA chart.
The same market is moving both of them in the same way.

 

[Iceman]

No, company holds those shares that are earmarked for Elon's pay package. Only Elon can sell those shares, after he gets them.

I meant shares that got called in for the vote are now rushing back out as they become available for lending to short sellers. But mongo just answered that the date of record was a while back so that´s probably not playing a role today.

 

[elasalle]

Is it 4pm yet ... uugghhh

 

[Richgoogol]

I think you´re right. The TSLA chart for today is pretty much identical to the NVDA chart.
The same market is moving both of them in the same way.

But here's the thing that gets me, I was expecting a nice pull back towards closing, possibly towards 304, but seems like shorts are really determined that TSLA will drop even further. Not sure if they know something that we don't or...

 

[mongo]

Is it 4pm yet ... uugghhh

Yes... and Yes...

 

[Jayjs20]

Just want to point out that the nasdaq dropped 100 points from this morning's low while TSLA stayed above this morning's low.

 

[generalenthu]

Sold the stock I have in IRA to pick up 2020 calls (200 strike) on a 2X ratio. It left me with a little bit of cash too. Let's see what happens in the coming couple of months.

 

[Richgoogol]

The last time we've closed anything lower than this is on November 02, 2017, where we closed at $299.26.

 

[BornToFly]

Followed the market and did better than Google and Amazon. I wish I had dry powder to add to my position. I would buy after a several percentage point climb to be sure the drop had ended.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

This is the lowest TSLA has been in almost a year now

I bought shares at 295.08 on February 9, 2018. I believe we closed that day at around 310, so today’s close is lower.

 

[2virgule5]

This is the lowest TSLA has been in almost a year now

View attachment 288604

Yet I don't think I've ever been more optimistic. Yes I've been at times been more hopeful on M3 ramp. At this time, I don't hope that M3 will ramp, I know that M3 has been ramping and will continue to ramp.

I'm not here to dismiss the validity of technical analysis. But TA doesn't work all the time, patterns can change quickly when new info comes out. The fact that OptionSniper is buying puts in TSLA reinforces my opinion that we should buy. I think the way OS is reading the chart represent the market expectation that Tesla will miss Q1, and maybe badly, and I think this is one of those time OS and TA's blindspot is actually the strong suit here on TMC, crowd-sourced data on actual production. OS is operating on old pattern, and we have the new info.

In fairness to OS he's also long on TSLA and said that anything close to $300 is a strong Buy for longs.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm fully back into short and medium term options in last hour. I see shorts wanting to cover here - there's very little upside to being short at 300, with huge risk.

That's the way I see it. Scary times, fear is setting in. This is the time to add not sell. Not saying that this is definitely bottom but it's low enough.

 

[bdy0627]

With all the CNBC hit piece, ramp worries, macro troubles, the end of this month could be a perfect-storm setup for a short squeeze, if the last week brings over 2500 M3 productions and record deliveries across the board.
Shorts feel very empowered and bold, so this could be the perfect trap for them!
Just sayin...

This is a very interesting setup going into the end of the month for sure. Bottom usually seems to occur when I find that I no longer want to even look at my account balance. As of close today, I do not want to see my balance.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Yes. Bought back all at 301.85 . I think it will be back above 305 quickly next week. Good luck folks.

 

[bdy0627]

I have contemplated the same thing and always come to the conclusion that this is too obvious to not be happening. Model 3 needs to ramp - that is known. Model Y will be the same platform and therefore has the same modules and packs. The need to mass-produce these modules and packs is obvious and soon. If the do-hickey is the best machine they have for this, I would assume they are already building the second line in Germany right now.

What reason would they have to not build another one ASAP, knowing they are gonna be ramping to 10k/week in the summer and it takes time to build, test, calibrate and ship to USA? If we can figure this out, Tesla and Elon knows this too. And if Tesla and Elon hasn´t done this it´s because they have a better plan.

Maybe they are looking to save money right now and just feed buckets of skittles to the semi-automated line workers to push that as far as it can go.