TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BenPrice]

Put down the bong Ellec, that’s crazy talk. Everyone knows every single model 3 ever made is immediately driven to the dessert and left there to rust

After rework of course.

 

[InDaClub]

These guys are like mushrooms they really do pop up when the SP is down....and disappear when it goes back up.

I think they're more like cockroaches.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I prefer to call it realistic... And I'm sure I didn't say "no" demand...
Just that the ~surge~ is winding down...

Pulling the many levers..... That's what Elon calls Q3...
That's done, my friend... :-/

But play on, playa.... I'm good..

It's easy to say something is realistic, harder to back it up. Perhaps you could provide a reputable source or two to back up your claims.

 

[elasalle]

At the moment all of us investors wants to advise Elon to calm down with Twitter, if one read between the lines in one of his reply to tweet “ SEC May wants to increase fine to 420 millions, Elon replied: opposite is tru, this clearly tells me, Elon got a word from his lawyer that SEC is being too hard on him and judge is asking to lower the penalty so SEC is in weak position therefore Elon was critical of SEC, he could have kept it himself.

He hired some high profile lawyers for the SEC case, didn't he?. He should just leave it at that. I am sure the judge will not be impressed with his twitter antics.

 

[bhtooefr]

Joe says the SEC contacted him to determine if the marijuana smoking event was prearranged by Musk in an attempt to crash TSLA stock price. Seriously.

What I heard in that clip is that they were afraid that the SEC would, not that the SEC did.

 

[mongo]

After rework of course.

You mean the rework where the FUDsters turn the dessert into a desert? no offense @K_Dizzle

Spoiler: poetry

Bye bye Ms american pie
Drove my Tesla to the desert but the cake was a lie

 

[CorneliusXX]

Just asking the question... If Q4 is gonna be the craziest quarter, you'd think more people would recognize that, and the price ~should~ go up in anticipation of that... But it's not...
So, just asking the question... Clearly, I'm missing something... Sorry to bug you tonight.. Take care..

ok Cartman.

 

[dqd88]

Elon's refusal to settle and his recent SEC tweet were clearly the triggers for a $40 and $20 drop so why are you supporting his tweets? I don't think Elon understand the impact a drop from 350 to 260 in a matter of weeks has on average small investors. He said he did not care about day traders and that true long term investors would be OK - this showed that he had no appreciation of how hard it was on small investors. Some of us put 10, 20, 30 years worth of saving on tsla and when it drops from 350 to 260 that represents as much as 10 year's hardwork. For a middle class investor losing 10 year's saving would have a huge impact to his/her quality of life. Also, most middle class investors can't afford to put away a large chunk of net worth for 10 years waiting for loss to recover even if they have complete faith (kid going to college, medical emergencies, retirement, etc.) Elon's net worth could drop from 30B to 20B but his quality of life would never change.

I am not saying Elon doesn't care but I think he does not understand small investors. HyperChange and TeslaDailyPodcast both came out and appealed to Elon - I think they did us a great service. I also sent a letter to Elon via tsla ir - not that I expect him to read it but at least someone might compile the sentiments and provide feedback to him.

I think some people have invested too much of their net worth into the stock. Too many eggs in the Tesla basket. I'm guilty of that. We believe, we see the upside. It's a feel good story if all goes well, but the stock market is inherently risky, so "buyer beware" should be the context within which you buy any stock including Tesla.
I would urge any investor to have a balanced portfolio and really think about the risks and the time horizon for your personal needs.

 

[Boomer19]

Some thought and observations. Just my personal view and sorry for the long read.

• Its interesting to see all the trolls jumping in and then up and down at times when the SP is depressed and longs/bulls are more silent during this phases. Its understandable that shorts try to claim they are right and long may miss good arguments to counter but all of those does not change any fundamentals. Tesla has never been in a better position before so it feels perfect to me to be long since years. Th improvements of fundamentals exceeds my expectation and the value that is in the stock although not visible yet at Nasdaq is remarkable.

• Its human to search for easy answers in a complex world. This board is a nice reflection of everybody searching for an answer why the SP did loose quite a bid this week. The reality is unfortunately quite complex and many elements come together that are not visible to us or hard to understand in their interaction. Tweets from Elon are an almost perfect opportunity for shorts to try to shape the narrative and given that all fundamentals are against them and they have actually not a single fundamental valid point on their side any more. So they are really grateful for good reason that Elon is sending some Tweets that they can use for their purpose. Longs search for an answer and explain its all about Elons Twitter behavior. Regardless if you like or dislike his Tweets its not the simple and single answer for the movement we have seen this week. I am afraid but the world is more complex than that. So lets stock to explain that because he did twitter this we have seen a drop of that. Don't get hooked to simple answers!

• Its hard work if you want to succeed at the stock market. There is no "I get rich quick and easy". Latest after this week that should be transparent for everybody. You have to find a strategy that fits to you as a person and stick with it. Most people fail with both aspects of that sentence. Its a lifetime learning and improving and not an easy quick win. If you have a high volatile stock the risk of high leverage is obvious as you never know how strong it does swing. If you want to take that risk do not complain if the market does not do what you anticipated it should. Every aspect of time constrained investment (options, shorts, margin, ect) include your expectation of a stock to have a certain value at a certain time. Given a lot of not transparent manipulation, we have pretty much proof about, its not responsible to assume that the stock will move triggered by fundamentals alone.

• If you hear Elon talking to investors he does not talk about people who invest in shorts, options or leaps. He talks to people who buy the simple stock and hold them for a long period to be precise for many years. This are the ones he feels whole hardly committed to and grateful for. Nobody else. He will fight for those investors and will never give up. If you decide to invest in any kind of time constrained investments do not complain that Elon does not protect you and Twitters something that hurts you and your investment. Elon does not consider this people helpful for his mission. For real longs, losses on paper do not matter at all and be assured Elon will make sure you get a nice return on the long run. Short terms dips are therefore a perfect opportunity to maximize your benefit on Elon as a value creator.

• Finally if you feel uncertain have a look at the products, drive your Tesla a bid or look at a report about owners satisfaction and excitement or a nice owner video. A excellent loved product with a high margin and high demand is all what counts together with pace of innovation. The last time I was uncertain about Teslas future was back in 2014 I believe it was when the over engineered X created a lot of customer complains with regards to the Falcon Wing doors and the car did look to me more for a limited consumer group. The S had quality issues as well and the 3 not been released nor seen. That days are over and the product pipeline is in a better position than ever as well as production as well as demand as well as financials.

Its feels great to be a true long investor in Tesla. The risks are lower than ever and the opportunity well mapped and proven in front of us.

Writing this as I am about to sell my ICE car today and will never return!

sorry, this is not directed specifically at @avoigt but i finally had chance to respond to what i’ve been seeing a lot of. @bdy0627 kind of mentioned it earlier as well, but i’ll just get right to it.

all this nonsense about if someone isn’t long just stock then “they aren’t a pure long” is complete self-righteous bullshit, and i’m tired of hearing it. whether long via stock, options, CFDs, whatever...

1) we’re on the same side
2) many who use derivatives also have stock
3) the idea that it’s ok for elon to destroy speculators, which basically correlates to the idea that it’s ok to destroy the stock in the shorter term...is not valid to me

yes the short term affects derivatives, but it affects the stock too, and the people that bought recently, the most. why is this “ok” for some of you?

on the one hand, you’re right...tesla not the place to speculate, especially past your means. i mostly agree.
but on the other hand, i could also say eff off to some here, due to lack of eq or in some cases, understanding on your part.

i know every situation is different, and it’s a long game, but people trading in market don’t expect the ceo to focus on such things, let alone publicly take on those terrorizing the stock price, or the “regulatory” (eyeroll) bodies, or the institutional investors, quite frankly...when in the position tesla is in, they expect the ceo to be focused on execution. elon is different, we know, and those that dotnt are learning.

there’s a school of thought which says elon has been consumed with this and has lost control. there’s also the, elon is playing chess match. circling back to tesla’s current position, i wrote why i think he’s doing this the past couple days, and that he’s tired of the BS as much as anyone...TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

i may not agree with every single thing he’s done, but i try to understand why, and my money is where my mouth is, so don’t go thinking i’m a johnny come lately.

but i also don’t think, like some of you do, that’s it’s just a “shoulder shrug” to wipe out a bunch of short term long holders and it’s ok for them to die because they’re not “real longs” or “true longs”.

bullshit, get over yourselves.

that group includes not only the crazy over-extended speculators, it includes people just learning about tesla and purchasing shares for first time, and everyone in between. and don’t tell me it’s not a loss if you don’t sell, we know this.

that is every one of us at one point in time or another!

 

[lklundin]

Joe Rogan talks about Elon, 420, and the $20M blunt: "Mea culpa", or "Me accomplice"?

Joe says the SEC contacted him to determine if the marijuana smoking event was prearranged by Musk in an attempt to crash TSLA stock price. Seriously.

BTW, the original 2hr30min interview now has over 14.8M views on YouTube

I listened to this interview. Around 3 minutes in Rogan (while briefly glancing presumably at a 3rd person in the studio) says something like:
"Jamie was concerned that they were gonna contact us and see if we arranged that pot smoking part. Like, if that was something that had been arranged in advance because it crashed the stock. And I was like: Oh, Jesus. Oh, Jesus, we didn't do that, did we? Definitely didn't. Yeah, that was organic, folks. Strange."

 

[brian45011]

Because the stock's value isn't set simply by the people you're talking with? Because various entities on the market have different views as to every aspect of the company and the marketplace? Because some people take short positions, driving down the stock? Because markets don't like uncertainty? Because the broader markets have been declining, and Tesla moves more than the general market? Take your pick.

Judging from TSLA's volatility: "Because various entities on the market have different views as to every aspect of the company and the marketplace"

 

[dqd88]

I prefer to call it realistic... And I'm sure I didn't say "no" demand...
Just that the ~surge~ is winding down...

Pulling the many levers..... That's what Elon calls Q3...
That's done, my friend... :-/

But play on, playa.... I'm good..

You, like most Fudsters, aren't looking at the whole picture correctly. There are 95 million cars sold annually on earth. The % of EVs sold is growing yearly. Tesla is crushing it, #1 premium brand in US, #1 EV, #1 sedan. Now get out a spreadsheet and do some projections.

 

[FrANce]

It's real. My wife is having 2nd thoughts about driving her model X now because of Elon, though she loves the car.

People still drive their Audis and VWs, despite Audi's CEO being jailed and VW's Dieselgate. Love my Model S and am so grateful to Elon for all he does.

 

[mongo]

Options are time bound, therefore a time limited position impacted by short term volatility. Elon is willing to sacrifice the short term for the long term. He has warned people that do not like volatility to not buy TSLA.

This "not weak" long has regrets about not selling at any of the $380 peaks. Long term, I believe holding will work out, but short term it's annoying.

 

[Joe F]

These guys are like mushrooms they really do pop up when the SP is down....and disappear when it goes back up.

I’m thinking more like bed bugs. They always come out of the woodwork and from under the mattress when they smell blood and warm bodies.

But, turn on the lights to reveal the truth, and off they go to hide in wait for their next chance to feed.

BTW, does anybody know the size limits of the ignore list on TMC? And, is there any way to suppress the “Show Ignored Content” button?

 

[dqd88]

Hi @Xpert Yeah, it's come up...

Artful Dodger Sep 29, 2018


Yeah, so if the Saudi's announce a $100B/10 year Tesla product order and funding to build the machine that builds the machine, I say that'll move the BOARD, too. In fact I think it'll move the JUDGE in Elon's Civil settlement, too. You know, the "funding secured" part might need to be revisited too.

Cheers!

I've been thinking about this the past few hours. Didn't really get what Artful Dodger was talking about in that original post. But now the puzzle pieces are coming together. It does seem to make sense. It is only prudent for the Saudi's hedge against oil in the long term. They see the paradigm shift. Tesla would be the perfect partner for Saudi. Only logical right? They seem to like Elon too (they didn't take the bait when bloomberg questioned them about Elon's behavior calling him an eccentic)

 

[Ellec]

Put down the bong Ellec, that’s crazy talk. Everyone knows every single model 3 ever made is immediately driven to the dessert and left there to rust

I know, all those you see on the streets are driven by Tesla employees round and round the block. They've only sold about 100.

 

[dqd88]

. Awaiting next update but last filed positions attached.

Very cool. Is this a website/software? Very user friendly UI

 

[Boomer19]

Options are time bound, therefore a time limited position impacted by short term volatility. Elon is willing to sacrifice the short term for the long term. He has warned people that do not like volatility to not buy TSLA.

This "not weak" long has regrets about not selling at any of the $380 peaks. Long term, I believe holding will work out, but short term it's annoying.

100%

and i’m not trying to be a pr!ck i’m just saying that the group of short termers, for whatever the reason they’re short term, shouldn’t be villified and considered “not pure” as if it’s its some ridiculous ratings game of who cares about the mission the most...

the anti-humans that manipulate are different category.

we all on same team here (most of us)
i just want to kick some ass and take names

 

[Drax7]

BTW., big institutional investors are often portrayed as the serious, long term players, while retail investors are in it for the quick buck and are easy to scare.

It's exactly the other way around: the majority of instituionals either have a short term horizon who try to time the market all the time, or invite in the shorts by lending out the shares. I believe @neroden quantified this in some fashion? Retail investors on the other hand tend to have a longer term investment outlook. While they are a minority of total investors, they are the "foundation" of investor support.

This is why the short trolls are here and elsewhere on social media, attacking the "story" and slandering the man behind the story, Elon.

This is also why the influx of 6 billion dollars of capital this quarter alone should scare the shorts: over 83,000 people with enough assets to buy a $50k-$150k car, the majority of them new Tesla owners who bought their first Tesla, just started experiencing that story and are realizing that the rumors are ... all true.

Many of those new owners, like many new iPhone owners did a decade ago, will see through the FUD based on first hand experience and will see how undervalued Tesla is at current price levels.

Totally agree, as a matter of fact” long term capital management “ the hedge fund that blew up was practically
A Day trading operation.