TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

*Sigh*

My new theory. (Not entirely serious, but possible...)

The short-seller cabal has actually read this. Before they read this, they were trying to force the stock below $360 (because they thought that Tesla wouldn't be able to pay the bonds in cash). Now that they have finally noticed this provision, they are trying to force the stock below $252, for exactly the same reason.

They still don't realize that Tesla will simply pay the bonds in cash.

Are they *that* stupid? I am more tinfoil hat minded and ascribe them more intelligence than that. I figure it's just mostly psy ops and attempts at shorting-for-profit

 

[neroden]

Forgive me if this question has been covered before in the past.

Question: with so much money to be made on Tesla stock, is it not likely that some large financial institutions/hedge funds etc have people monitoring the amount of vehicles leaving the Fremont production facilities?

As I understand it (correct me if wrong), Tesla vehicles leave the plant in plain sight - so it wouldnt take much of an effort to set up a small monitoring team to simply count each vehicle leaving on the back of a car carrier - either in person or via a video feed.

Is it not feasible some institutions know exactly how many cars Tesla produces?

It's feasible, but frankly Troy did just as well with crowdsourced data.

I mean, if I didn't have a life, I might get a room next to the factory and monitor it myself.

 

[AWDtsla]

*Sigh*

My new theory. (Not entirely serious, but possible...)

The short-seller cabal has actually read this. Before they read this, they were trying to force the stock below $360 (because they thought that Tesla wouldn't be able to pay the bonds in cash). Now that they have finally noticed this provision, they are trying to force the stock below $252, for exactly the same reason.

They still don't realize that Tesla will simply pay the bonds in cash.

It's not hard to see why they'd try to do that. If Tesla is barely scraping by with the Model 3 program, 230M in November plus 920M 4 months later could be a fatal blow. Again assuming Model 3 program fails, and Elon can't find the funds. Which of course it isn't, and which of course he can.

 

[AWDtsla]

Are they *that* stupid? I am more tinfoil hat minded and ascribe them more intelligence than that. I figure it's just mostly psy ops and attempts at shorting-for-profit

Possibly like the CDO crisis, they consumed their own BS too long, can't tell what's real and what's not.

 

[neroden]

Curious of which three not-for-profit media entities you're thinking of.

The Guardian, local public radio affiliates, and the Tampa Bay Times.

Though also the Philly Inquirer now, apparently!

There are actually a fair number of not for profit podcasts / Youtube shows / etc. but very few not-for-profit *platforms*.

 

[neroden]

The POINT is for Tesla to survive to see the transition happen! It is going to take the collaboration of governments and many companies to bring about lasting change. We are investors in BYD, NIO, WPRT, and others, companies that are working to clean up global transportation and make money in the process.

Really, Donn, you are? You've made so many different and seemingly-not-quite-consistent claims about what you invest in, that I'd like to see that screenshot showing your BYD and NIO investments. Are you sure you're not just trading options in those stocks?

 

[neroden]

Could credit ratings be like certified residential real estate appraisals? Just as rating agencies in the mid-aughts were erring far too much on the high side, so were certified appraisers on residential properties. Having been involved with three residential transactions this year and seeing the appraisals of both the bought and sold properties, the pendulum has swung past half way in the other direction on residential appraisals.

In a word, yes.

 

[neroden]

The general public is unaware of the delivery issues, they have almost no bearing on public perception changing.

I do think the delivery issues have reduced the benefit of Tesla's word-of-mouth. However, reducing it from "every single person you talk to wants to buy the car" to "only 3/4 of the people you talk to want to buy the car" isn't going to affect demand over the next year or two.

 

[Krugerrand]

Saul Goodman ??, you're kidding,, right?

Well, in the moment, that’s who came to mind. I’m open to suggestions.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla has a great product. Anyone notice the gas prices lately? $4 a gallon in Southern California. Anyone care to guess when it’ll get to $5?

Tesla's Battery In South Australia Breaks Stranglehold Of Natural Gas Industry | CleanTechnica

 

[Smokey4141]

Do you recall the identity of the lender you read about? My original comment, TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable , asked whether you were conflating registered capital with an actual extension of credit (debt) which would infuse cash. The latter would also be contrary to Elon's repeated asserted that he neither needed to nor wanted to raise new capital in 2018 other than through existing credit arrangements (ABL and Warehouse Line). Your link talked about registered capital not a loan. We'll see in a month if it shows up on the debt schedule.

I agree with you Brian, and the term "Registered Capital" seems to have thrown off some people..
It's almost like it was designed to confuse, and it works!

"Registered Capital" is like me sending a Letter of Notice to my bank, letting them know that ~if~ I win the Powerball......make that TWO Powerballs.....I'll be depositing up to $680 million into my account with them... Until I do it....there is no money...

At this time, there is not $680 million in cash or loans, for any Chinese Giga-factory...

 

[neroden]

That share price of $232 also applies to:

The Board has a policy that limits pledging of Company stock by our directors and executive officers. Pursuant to this policy, directors and executive officers may pledge their Company stock (exclusive of options, warrants, restricted stock units or other rights to purchase stock) as collateral for loans and investments, provided that the maximum aggregate loan or investment amount collateralized by such pledged stock does not exceed twenty-five percent (25%) of the total value of the pledged stock.​

One catch: nobody actually knows how much Musk has borrowed, other than him and his banker and his accounting.

Also, it looks like Musk can pledge as much stock as he likes, so if you believe that set of estimates, he's fine down to $94.85. Assuming he doesn't pledge SpaceX stock instead, and I'm damn sure that's good collateral.

 

[neroden]

I suspect they would structure it so that a wholly-owned subsidiary (Tesla Shanghai LLC or something) was the one getting the loan and thus being saddled with the debt. If they do that, would it show up on a 10Q for TSLA (other than that they own a subsidiary)?

Yes, because of the utterly arcane "consolidation" rules of US GAAP.

 

[gene]

Tesla has a great product. Anyone notice the gas prices lately? $4 a gallon in Southern California. Anyone care to guess when it’ll get to $5?

$4.19 where I live. The higher the gas goes, the happier I am!

 

[sundaymorning]

$4.19 where I live. The higher the gas goes, the happier I am!

It’s been so long since i’ve had to buy gas I stopped paying attention. But I was pretty shock to see the price at $4 today.

 

[neroden]

Automotive spending just isn't that high of a percentage of ad spending:

Um, Karen... the second-largest ad-spending sector? As your chart says?

It makes far more sense to fight over clicks amongst themselves than to team up to save 12,5% of total ad spending. Aka, an editorial direction decision that increases your clicks by more than 12,5% but sacrifices auto ad spending entirely is worth it to you. Getting clicks on the story matters most.

True, but I wouldn't say auto spending is a small percentage!

The highest percentage is on retail, which I think means particular store brands? (Shop here rather than at the other identical store or Amazon). That's new -- in the days of TV, it used to be laundary detergent and cereal were #1 in ads.

Auto's the second-highest! As it always has been. That's big.

If you can increase total eyeballs by 15%, fine, that outweighs it... The thing is, it's hard to consistently increase clicks by that much. Most increases in clicks are way less than 12.5%.

 

[neroden]

I hope this motivates our government to act quickly, before it’s too late. If we go past a certain threshold, then there’s no coming back.

Not to get too political, but the Republicans are still denying climate reality. If our government is to act quickly to stop and slow down dangerous climate change, it will be because the Republicans are removed from power. This is not controversial.

 

[neroden]

And surprise, they were long $1.2B+ earlier this year,.....playing the ride.

I've seen them with very large put *and* call positions simultaneously. Does Susquehanna International Group do complicated spread trades, perhaps?

 

[Smokey4141]

Hi Thekiwi, how ya going?

You seem kinda intent on ignoring that the Saudi investment triggered the jump in TSLA on Aug 7th, not Elon's tweet. Understanding the real cause of the jump will lead to a better understanding of the day, and subseqent events. It is this underlying cause that frightens and motivates TSLA short-sellers.

The SEC investigation was a extreme tactic forced by TSLA shorts. It is unheard of to rush such an investigation through in less than 2 months, and release it the day before record 3rd Quarter production numbers were due. And just one month before Tesla's Q3 Earning Report would put the lie to the short thesis about profitability. It was a desperate and despicable act.

However, if Elon hadn't sent the tweet, shorts would simply continue to attack him though their next available means. Their goal is to separate him from Tesla operations and management. This pattern of character attacks was established long before Aug 7th. Shorts think if they can break Elon, it will lead to the downfall of Tesla. They will fail in both attempts.

That's their real goal. The SEC sideshow is kabuki theatre. The story right now is the Saudi investment. I suspect we'll know more after Oct 18. If the KSA PIF goes big on solar and storage, Tesla could double in size vs the Automotive division alone.

And that scares the *sugar* out of the shorts. Using oil money to build up renewables is like the Hulk breaking off the short's longer leg and beating them with the stump. Thor is already doing it in Norway (EV sales in Norway has already surpassed dino-sales, and their soverign wealth fund holds $Billons in TSLA). Elon is Ironman. If any more Marvel Superheroes get involved in this fight, the shorts will look like the penguin in a Batman movie.
View attachment 342071

No one will be surprised by this, but I disagree here...
The SEC issue(s) is hardly Kabuki theater....
The initial SEC settlement was done quickly to ~minimize~ the effect they'd have on the SP, and get it behind them, and EM....
And a few days later, EM couldn't stay away from Twitter, and just went ahead and mocked them....

WHILE the SEC is still investigating them, and so is the DOJ....

Except now they're pissed.... Who wouldn't be?
To just "fluff-off" either, like they're nobody, is a serious, serious mistake...

 

[neroden]

They do not pencil out.

Just shut up, Donn. You don't know what you're talking about. There's a reason taxi and limo services are buying Model Ses as fast as they can get them -- Model 3 is an even better deal for them.

Financially, the ROI is just so much better for a Tesla than for a gasoline car that it's not funny. These are people who actually did business analyses and even started businesses because they know for a stone-cold fact that the ROI on a Tesla for a high-mileage service is far, far, far, far better than for any gasoline car.

You are just spreading easily provable lies now, Donn. I mean, I researched the numbers on this *five years ago*, and then I watched people *actually start taxi and limo services* based on these numbers, and then I watched the reports after a few years as they talked about how they'd been highly profitable and were expanding.

Just too expensive to operate a Model 3 full-time without commercial access to SC use. The monthly payments, lack of a lease program, higher insurance, and shorter warranty on drivetrain and battery pack just don't work for high mileage operations. Without SC access a driver is limited to what he can charge at home for hours of operation. It would only work for a very part-time gig and perhaps for a referral-gathering exercise.

Using a decent MPG gas car gives a driver a much better ROI. There are some nice late model sedans and vans on the used market for $11-15,000 with lots of rear seat legroom, wider seating, or third-row seating, and larger cargo spaces. Even with gas and maintenance, they pencil out much better than a base $50,000 Model 3 without in-town SC access.

This is so much total bullshit it's ridiculous.