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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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No.

I lied. I learned this trick from the smokey bird gang. Novel concept ain't it :D

Just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it's true.... ;-)

And I have no idea what you think I "lied" about, but whatever...
Since the mods delete my posts if I try to point out anything contrary to the popular view, I don't really care any longer. Think whatever you want..
 
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My post said that I disagreed with the notion that SEC actions have done more damage to the stock price than Elon’s Take private Tweet.

My basis is that without that tweet - none of the SEC actions would have existed - do you disagree with that? If so, on what basis?

Hi Thekiwi, how ya going? ;)

You seem kinda intent on ignoring that the Saudi investment triggered the jump in TSLA on Aug 7th, not Elon's tweet. Understanding the real cause of the jump will lead to a better understanding of the day, and subseqent events. It is this underlying cause that frightens and motivates TSLA short-sellers.

The SEC investigation was a extreme tactic forced by TSLA shorts. It is unheard of to rush such an investigation through in less than 2 months, and release it the day before record 3rd Quarter production numbers were due. And just one month before Tesla's Q3 Earning Report would put the lie to the short thesis about profitability. It was a desperate and despicable act.

However, if Elon hadn't sent the tweet, shorts would simply continue to attack him though their next available means. Their goal is to separate him from Tesla operations and management. This pattern of character attacks was established long before Aug 7th. Shorts think if they can break Elon, it will lead to the downfall of Tesla. They will fail in both attempts.

That's their real goal. The SEC sideshow is kabuki theatre. The story right now is the Saudi investment. I suspect we'll know more after Oct 18. If the KSA PIF goes big on solar and storage, Tesla could double in size vs the Automotive division alone.

And that scares the *sugar* out of the shorts. Using oil money to build up renewables is like the Hulk breaking off the short's longer leg and beating them with the stump. Thor is already doing it in Norway (EV sales in Norway has already surpassed dino-sales, and their soverign wealth fund holds $Billons in TSLA). Elon is Ironman. If any more Marvel Superheroes get involved in this fight, the shorts will look like the penguin in a Batman movie.

=== OFF-TOPIC === CUT HERE ===

BTW, enjoyed my time in Wellywood at the Embassy Theatre for the opening of LOTR:ROTK. Spent Christmas in Lower Hutt with friends among the Kea and the Kakapo. Rode my push bike from Auckland to Queenstown over a 4 week tour. MUCH preferred the North Island, but I'm still on the DOC mail list after all these years. Next visit, I'm buying a campervan at the YHA in Orcland. Unless Tesla has campervans in NZ by then. Oh, here's some Peter Jackson for you... :D Cheers!

PeterJackson.Wellywood.LOTR.ROTK.Premier.Dec2003.jpg
 
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My post said that I disagreed with the notion that SEC actions have done more damage to the stock price than Elon’s Take private Tweet.

My basis is that without that tweet - none of the SEC actions would have existed - do you disagree with that? If so, on what basis?

Kiwi, I agree with you 100%... Unfortunately, that now makes you a marked man... Sorry, man.. :-/
But you're right... ;-)
 
I like that suggestion, but would prefer that Deepak (and maybe Deepak would prefer that too) not experience a significant gravitas shortfall.

It's a conference call. Not a video conference.

Just take pictures. Post them years later after Deepak retires. For good.

And maybe Elon on Mars.

Or make it a screen background for Easter eggs on the 2040 Teslas.
 
I think business media sentiment towards Tesla is going to change with success: success in the marketplace (when compared to ICE vehicle sales in their primary segments), and financial success in terms of cash flow and profitability. And I believe in many cases it will happen like it happened with the Handelsblatt: the change will be an abrupt 180 degrees, as if they never wrote Tesla FUD before.

It will happen, but not after Q3, regardless of the numbers--the counter-narrative will be that the numbers are a flash in the pan or not sustainable. I will guess it takes 2-3 qtrs to reach a cross-over point where it becomes more entertaining and profitable to beat up on legacy automakers who are losing share to Tesla than it is to beat up on Tesla itself.
 
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Please, Musk, you're killing us with your twitter account! All of that stuff about SpaceX and successfully doing a ground landing in California has the stock market tanking! NASDAQ and Dow are both down. Companies are failing left and right. To save the economy the fed has been forced to hike the interest rate and to knock Nio into submission our President has escalated the trade war with China.

Please! Musk, we're desperate. Close your twitter account so that the stock market can recover!
You forgot you are speaking of the same little kid who was bullied and beaten in his earlier days. He never gave in then, so you expect him to knuckle down now?
Elon will not be silenced, why? Because he is Right and when you're Right, the rest of the world will need to come to grips with it. It is who he is, and what drives him. We are just along for the ride, so shut up or get out at the light.
 
11 AM? That's some awfully precise technical analysis. After the likely MMD, or attempt at one?

Yeah I'm assuming a MMD. It seems to have been lasting a bit longer than before lately. Macros / trade war fears are scaring me a bit right now too though so we'll see.

If the MMD pushes it below 248 tomorrow/soon then I really don't know what to say.
 
Already a year ago PV contracts in that region went below 18 $/MWh (i.e. contract awarded to company agreeing to build and operate PV-plant for 25 years for that payment),
How is Saudi Arabia setting solar pricing records? Is it sustainable – repeatable?

How would Tesla compete in that market, when their solar roof targets a rather affluent market (like the original Tesla Roadster)?
Jared Kushner and MBS are close. Elon is (quietly) a friend of Jared's. This is how this works.
 
This kind of price action is surely only driven by one of three things:
1) massively increased short selling
2) generalised sell-off
3) 1 or more large institutional holders trimming or exiting their position

Seems to me that we're looking mainly at at number 3, with possibly a bit of 2 (don't know that there's much evidence of 1 in a big way?). It's impossible to know why an institution might make that decision but it's a stretch to say it's definitely because of a tweet that Elon made last week or last month. It's just as easily because a given fund has a new manager with a different focus (i.e. Fidelity), or maybe Tencent need to liquidate to release some cash due to private sector liquidity squeeze in China. None of us know.

Given that many other large holders (and small!) may already be capped out on how much they want to put down on TSLA at this time, I wouldn't be surprised if the price action is fairly depressed for a while. The idea that Elon announcing he's quitting Twitter would lead to an immediate 20% price increase seems totally off to me. What you need is enough positive execution on the business plan that more institutional / strategic investors enter the fray in a serious way. Which may or may not be accompanied by a reduction in short interest.

None of which makes these prices any easier for retail investors with a 12-month or shorter view. And is exactly why you should only invest what you're prepared to lock away for a long time and try not to become too over-concentrated on any one stock. We'd all rather see a sea of green when logging into our brokerage accounts but if you still believe in the long term fundamentals, then that will come in time.
 
Are we talking about the same woman who as the head of the EPA unequivocally stated the air at Ground Zero was safe to breathe and that everyone should get back to work?

Have you lost your mind? That happens and I am history with all things Tesla.

I have faith that Musk and the BoD would do no such stupidity.
And let Howard Stern sponsor a rest stop. :eek: That is the only thing I liked about her.
 
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I can't blame you for falling for the "Elon has gone off the rails" short thesis in this whirpool of bullshit. I almost fell for it too. I've come to the conclusion this is simply not true. He's as eccentric as normal. I think his patience for bullshit is wearing thin, as is mine. I think for him a vacation is going to work at SpaceX. What else do you suggest he do, build model rockets in his garage to take a break from Tesla?

Study how to build sustainable biological habitats on Mars? That sounds like his style...
 
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Yup. Assuming the board does nothing, the maximum conversion rate is 3.9597, so as long as Tesla is above $252.54, they can settle the bonds in whole or in part through equity.

*Sigh*

My new theory. (Not entirely serious, but possible...)

The short-seller cabal has actually read this. Before they read this, they were trying to force the stock below $360 (because they thought that Tesla wouldn't be able to pay the bonds in cash). Now that they have finally noticed this provision, they are trying to force the stock below $252, for exactly the same reason.

They still don't realize that Tesla will simply pay the bonds in cash.
 
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