TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[M. Thompson]

The problems of ice age etc will pale in comparison to all the wars we'll have because of climate change.

The biggest problem will be water. As the rain pattern changes (think, 5 consecutive Monsoon failures in Indian sub-continent, home to 2 Billion people), water wars will become common - aided by huge migrations. Trump will start looking like a dove on immigration.

Some estimates put world population around 1 Billion by 2100 AD. In other words, some 7 Billion will die untimely deaths.

Put bacteria in a jar of sugar water and watch. They keep growing and consuming sugar, until there is none left. They all die off. I'm fairly sure, humans are not very different from bacteria. This is my optimistic take - since bacteria don't kill each other.

The current general consciousness of humans that we live in a fishbowl (earth), will change with time. Mars and the rest of the Solar System awaits.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Shouldn't that be a RED bar not green? Looks like a dip. A sell.
Probably an error

Not sure, but didn’t cause much of a dip, either. That’s why I’m wondering if it was someone executing a call(not clear on if there are limits on when that can be done), which wouldn’t affect the SP, other than likely showing up at some lower level temporarily.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I just finished reading @Papafox's article at A Field Guide To Potential Securities Violations By Tesla's Foes — In Depth | CleanTechnica. Great article.

I've seen literally tens of thousands of manipulations. I rarely document them. I often watch the tape, and sometimes I comment on them. Here's one of my recent comments made exactly after such a manipulation:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

What is the exact timestamp of that message? One of the many horrible things TMC did was remove timestamps, but timestamps deliver vital information.

Anyway, I didn't document that ladder down. Am I supposed to? It's still in the tape. SEC could easily look it up and prosecute. But I haven't heard of them doing so.

Update: I've been investigating when that above post was made. Here are some screenshots that parameterize the timeline to be before 3:54AM Pacific Time:
View attachment 342722 View attachment 342723

Update: I sent a query to NASDAQ for that information, but I don't know if they will respond or the best way to get a copy of that information. Does anybody know how to get Times and Sales information from NASDAQ or anywhere for research for a past event 8 days ago? Does anybody have a recording of the information (Times and Sales on TSLA, including time, exchange, price, size, ask, and bid)? October 3, 2018, between 4AM EDT and 6:54AM EDT.

At least on desktop, if you hover the mouse cursor over the date, it will pop out the exact time. I'm in Central time zone so adjust accordingly. See attached image.

 

[SpaceCash]

Not sure, but didn’t cause much of a dip, either. That’s why I’m wondering if it was someone executing a call(not clear on if there are limits on when that can be done), which wouldn’t affect the SP, other than likely showing up at some lower level temporarily.

I don't believe that's how calls/puts look when executed. If you exercise a DITM call with say a $200 strike price, the price does not briefly drop to $200 just due to your execution. This is an anomaly for sure

Edit: You basically said what I'm saying

 

[lklundin]

You forgot Donald Trump.

Yes. The businessman who made himself a small fortune - from a big, inherited one.

 

[SpudLime]

Yes. The businessman who made himself a small fortune - from a big, inherited one.

Not gonna lie. I was rather impressed with the level of effort to move the money around to avoid paying the taxes.

 

[Buckminster]

International Space Station May Be Stranded As Boeing, SpaceX Prep NASA Launches | Investor's Business Daily
TSLA is gonna rocket (pun intended) - Elon will almost certainly work exclusively on SpaceX to get to the ISS by Jan. Certainly no time to Tweet about pedos! Back in time to sign-off the Model Y design and bask in the glory of having finally beaten the shorts.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

International Space Station May Be Stranded As Boeing, SpaceX Prep NASA Launches | Investor's Business Daily
TSLA is gonna rocket (pun intended) - Elon will almost certainly work exclusively on SpaceX to get to the ISS by Jan. Certainly no time to Tweet about pedos! Back in time to sign-off the Model Y design and bask in the glory of having finally beaten the shorts.

“NASA said Boeing's first unscrewed Starliner test flight will be in March 2019”

Oh dear..

 

[Buckminster]

“NASA said Boeing's first unscrewed Starliner test flight will be in March 2019”

Oh dear..

Yup, Le Creuset are sponsoring the vehicle:

 

[Fact Checking]

Different headliner, seats, and trim. Assembly wise, fairly identical. Body and paint lines need to be set up for the different roof panel, but that is (mostly) one time automation,..

It's not so simple:

• Different audio system.
• Different seats (non-powered, non-heated).
• Different (simpler) center console.
• No glass roof chassis assembly steps.
• Different (simpler) side mirrors.
• Different (simpler) headlights.
• Many of these require new plastics injection mould sets and fragment the batches which reduce throughput.
• Most of these variants require different, new subassembly preparatory steps which complicates parts conveyance to the main assembly lines.
• Many of these require new assembly stations, which space and tooling Tesla could use to increase throughput.
• Introducing these options increases the risk of line stoppage, reducing overall throughput.

There's a reason why Tesla started with a single variant of the Model 3: every variant added is a huge deal to throughput.

Even AWD was introduced relatively late, despite it being much less of a complexity than Standard Interior and despite it adding income.

Standard Interior removes income, at significant expenses and risks to the main assembly pipeline. My guess is that non-PUP is going to be the very last debundling step - but I could be wrong of course.

 

[Unpilot]

With the market kind of meandering along around 250...and with relatively low volume it seems to me it would be fairly easy for a big player to move the SP either way.

It seems many people are scared off due to Macro event's ...but if I had some powder I for one would be buying!

 

[mongo]

It's not so simple:

• Different audio system.
• Different seats (non-powered, non-heated).
• Different (simpler) center console.
• No glass roof chassis assembly steps.
• Different (simpler) side mirrors.
• Different (simpler) headlights.
• Many of these require new plastics injection mould sets and fragment the batches which reduce throughput.
• Most of these variants require different, new subassembly preparatory steps which complicates parts conveyance to the main assembly lines.
• Many of these require new assembly stations, which space and tooling Tesla could use to increase throughput.
• Introducing these options increases the risk of line stoppage, reducing overall throughput.

There's a reason why Tesla started with a single variant of the Model 3: every variant added is a huge deal to throughput.

Even AWD was introduced relatively late, despite it being much less of a complexity than Standard Interior and despite it adding income.

Standard Interior removes income, at significant expenses and risks to the main assembly pipeline. My guess is that non-PUP is going to be the very last debundling step - but I could be wrong of course.

Those are all supplier issues, not assembly ones. If anything, simpler means less connectors to mate. From the assembly POV, all those things have common mount points (other that the body difference). Bolting and connecting a power seat is virtually identical to a manual one.
Yes, there will now be two types of sub assemblies (and thus more material management), but most of the Tesla side assembly task remain the same. Door panels and side mirrors attach to doors the same.

 

[HG Wells]

It's going to be much quicker than the recent migrations too, I think. Furthermore, with the climate pattern changes, areas where certain crops are grown today will no longer be suitable. Grass-lands too will shift. Farmers will go out of business, the balance of power will shift between countries. There will be great civil unrest, many wars, famine, etc.

And then I think about the North Atlantic Conveyor. If we get enough ice-melt to reduce the salivation of the oceans, this could shut-down, the climate change will then be dramatic and very rapid. The gulf-streams will fail, we'll see an ice-age return to the Northern Hemisphere.

And everyone affected will be scratching their heads wondering why we didn't avert this when it was still possible.

I also hope I'm wrong, because the consequences dwarf anything our species has had to deal with in the past.

SEE SEE
That cold snap means we don't have to worry about Global Warming ! /S

PS: Salination not salivation.
Change in salt content.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

SEE SEE
That cold snap means we don't have to worry about Global Warming ! /S

PS: Salination not salivation.
Change in salt content.

I had assumed the ice melting would make things less tasty for the ocean. Learn something new every day.

 

[cheshire cat]

I had assumed the ice melting would make things less tasty for the ocean. Learn something new every day.

More to do with density ( of water) / temp

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, at least for now we're avoiding that sudden downturn of all markets at 2:00EST. Hopefully that continues.

 

[cheshire cat]

Hominins have been through many ice ages. One of them reduced us to a world population of only 600. We nearly went extinct.

Beginning 195,000 years ago, the global climate entered a period of cold and dry conditions that lasted for 70,000 years, a phase called Marine Isotope Stage 6. In interior Africa, this shift triggered drought conditions so severe that much of the continent would have become uninhabitable. Genetic studies of modern human DNA tell us that at some point during this period, human populations plummeted from more than 10,000 breeding individuals to as few as 600. Homo sapiens became a highly endangered species; we almost went extinct. This “population bottleneck” means that all humans alive today are descended from this tiny group of survivors. The result: our species has less genetic diversity than a single troupe of West Africa chimpanzees.

Did you used to play Mr Olsen in Police Squad ?

 

[Fact Checking]

Note that James Murdoch has not said anything about it - not denied it.

BTW., I have the suspicion that James Murdoch is behind:

• The unprecedented leaks from the Tesla board in the past few months, showing concern about Elon's behavior, leaking details from the going-private deliberations, undermining Elon's messaging overall
• The self-serving "rumor" that James Murdoch is a leading candidate for chair of the Tesla board ..

If you look through the list of Tesla board members then the only person who has the media contacts, the experience and the track record to leak highly confidential board deliberations (which is illegal and immediate grounds for termination of board membership), is James Murdoch.

James Murdoch's scandal at the News of the World was that his journalists hacked targets including major politicians for scoops and bribed officials on an industrial scale, on a scale that shocked even Fleet Street veterans.

I have no doubt James Murdoch would leak without any moral qualms, if he thought he could get away with it.

He might be a more liberal Murdoch, but is still a Murdoch ...

 

[ZachShahan]

Well, one can only wonder what Elon is reading today.

No tweets

Hopefully he is free to communicate again soon.

 

[dqd88]

So which will Tesla release first? Sr with pup or lr without pup?

Does anyone know exactly what the SR will lack compared to LR (besides battery diff)?

My guess
no heated seats
no glass roof
less premium sound system
cloth seats (not sure, hard to picture it with cloth seats)
are these off? what else?

And are these all encapsulated in what people are referring to as the PUP?

Trying to understand what accounts for the price gap ($9k for battery, then $5k for PUP?)

(apologies if this is off topic/in another thread)