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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I wonder if the new nav SW will be too CPU intensive for the old MCU, and Tesla doesn't want to delay releasing the new nav on the cusp of the flood gate opening for the M3 with bunch of non-owners now taking delivery, and they didn't want too much blow back from existing MS/X drivers if their MCU slows down too much with the new nav, so they're offering this as an option to keep those customers content.

No it won't be. It's vector based, so the files are smaller so less memory intensive. Also very efficient zooming in and out vs a purely rastor based tile steam like today. Google made this transition in the client side a long time ago and it allowed for a lot more junk on the map. It might be a bit more processing intensive but that will be hidden by the far more responsive and light vector based maps. Vector is basically a mathematical representation of the lines and colors. Much smaller then defining the color of every pixel in every tile, which also takes more bandwidth and memory.
 
TSLA dropped aftermarket to $272, Moody downgrade may take another bite out of SP.
Tomorrow could be a good setup for capitulation... Or not
My plan has changed. If it continues going down, I'm throwing everything in at $250, 2020 leaps (I am already nicely leveraged), and I'm borrowing from my HLOC somewhere between $200-$220, just like in Feb '16! Those buys created some spectacular returns at the time.
 
Any predictions for first quarter deliveries? I am guessing about the following:

11K M3 - Extrapolating from the Delivery/VIN spread sheet here on TMC
23K S & X - Just a wild guess, thinking it will be slightly soft due to lack of inventory and the winter quarter.
34K Total

This would be a 36% unit increase over last year.

One interesting thought is that the Model 3 could beat the BMW 3/4 series US only deliveries very soon. Typically the BMW sells about 8K per month in the US but it has been on the decline. For sure the M3 will pass the BMW 3/4 in the US sometime next quarter. The possible Canada diversion would be the only thing to stop it.

When you think about that achievement it is quite remarkable. BMW 3/4 series has a 40 year legacy.

Then sometime this summer it will sell more than the Audi A4, MB C-class, and BMW 3/4 series combined which is about 17K per month. At an ASP that is likely higher than all of them. The Germans automakers will be sweating as this will be hitting the core of their market. It will be interesting to see if it expands this market or has as much of an impact that the Model S did on the S-class and 7-Series sales.

Keep a long term view on the stock. The automotive industry has slower clockspeed than most industries so the disruption will not be an Apple like 2-3 years. It will take a decade or more due to the longer product cycles and the capital intensive nature of the business.
 
TSLA dropped aftermarket to $272, Moody downgrade may take another bite out of SP.
Tomorrow could be a good setup for capitulation... Or not
My plan has changed. If it continues going down, I'm throwing everything in at $250, 2020 leaps (I am already nicely leveraged), and I'm borrowing from my HLOC somewhere between $200-$220, just like in Feb '16! Those buys created some spectacular returns at the time.

If you don't mind me asking, which 2020 strike price? I have been using 500 to keep the cost down.
 
I swear this is an exact repeat of Feb / March 2016 in the woes of the X ramp. We could just copy and paste all the bears and bulls posts from that time period and save us all a bunch of typing... Literally the similarity in the posts is uncanny.

This also feels like then in that another trip to $240 could be in the cards, like it was to $140 then. But whatever, it will be fine. Model 3 is ramping, slowly but surely.

This is only extremely painful for those that are leveraged. If not leveraged, then just chillin'. At least I am.

Just for fun, I went back to the 2016 threads.

Here's what was said today:

Wow, there's no stopping today is there?

Here's what was said in Feb 2016:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Stock is making me sick. Down 5 more.

Why would Elon be open to making Tesla supercharging stations available to all electric cars not just Tesla?

Earnings must really suck. :cursing:

And a panicked-sounding post from former forum member Maoing in Feb 2016: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Looking at the whole market which has decent bounce later today, but what TSLA is doing? only less than $2 from the new low and $2.3 from 50% point of ATH ($245.7). The volume has been > 9M shares for both Friday and Monday, isn't it big compared to average 3-4M/day? TSLA broke 180 strong support (2014.5 low, 2015.3 low and Elon exercised options just over that) without bounce, model X production is still a question of when and how? This is the biggest pivot point for this GREAT downfall (otherwise macro should not push SP down below 180). TM/EM was definitely misleading investors, how come they are waiting for redesigned parts while claimed exponential ramp up one month ago? The model X crap will bring fundamental issues for Tesla in multiple folds:
1) TRUST: management is misleading, if not called lying, this fundamental integrity issue for investing a company;
2) Cash flow: model X was supposed to provide much needed cash for Tesla growth, but it's been put hold, so capital raise become more realistic in this difficult market;
3) Capital raise: model X was supposed to boost SP to over $300 and dilution of capital raise will be much smaller than doing it under $150;
4) Elon Musk margin call: Elon Musk borrowed hundreds of million dollars from investment bank with collateral of his TSLA holding to buy TSLA shares, at some point, he'll receive margin call if the downwards trend can't be stopped
5) Growth: with current macro, we can't expect much growth for model S, but if model X can't make up the 50% YoY growth gap, then the growth momentum will get questioned in upcoming ER. You know how picky is the market right now for high flyer stocks.

As many investors anticipated, positive model X reveal and production can bring TSLA the benefits of Trust, cash flow, momentum of SP and many more. But right now, we are in opposite side and the truth just got hide many times by TM management.

I seriously thought Maoing was having a panic attack for all of February.
 
Just for fun, I went back to the 2016 threads.

Here's what was said today:

Here's what was said in Feb 2016:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

And a panicked-sounding post from former forum member Maoing in Feb 2016: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

I seriously thought Maoing was having a panic attack for all of February.

Then, as now, there were also a few contrarian bargain shoppers -- here are a couple examples from Feb. 9, 2016:;)

I'd say buying opportunity if you have the funds. I mean nothing fundamental has changed with the company since a few weeks ago, and if back then someone told you they had some shares for sale under $150 what would you have done?

If you can stomach some ups and downs this seems like the best opportunity for long-term investors since early 2013. Short-term problems with X launch and market downturn have created a great opportunity for LT investors. Added to my shares Friday for first time since 2012.

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
 
I can't say which way this will go, or if how much longer this volatility will last, but I think everyone should be prepared for a very rocky period while things with Model 3 are uncertain.

Expect a lot of nonsense to be posted here at TMC, at Reddit, and elsewhere. A lot of it will be the same as 2016: people spreading FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt), usually through posts that have little substance. Intention is almost directly proportional to the effort made in posts. I pay attention to bearish investors who back up their arguments with substantive information based on production, cash flow, and working capital estimates, even if I disagree with their conclusions. People who don't post with much effort are likely trying to influence retail sentiment or avenge for past losses.
 
Probably opens at 280 tomorrow morning? Remember never bet against elon.

I've been a Tesla owner since 2013, and have bought 3 so far, but Elon is now on my hit list. My investment strategies for the last 5 years have been based on the information that he has given us (I listen to ever earnings call and read every earnings report). I understand that manufacturing is hard, but I expect the CEO to have a freaking clue about the ramp and the challenges they face. The fact that he has been more wrong that I thought humanly possible, has now cost me an incredible amount of money. I will get maybe half of it back if the stock recovers in the next 6 months, but I have no choice now but buy back at a huge loss naked Puts that I sold two months ago, because my account has dropped so much that even though I didn't use Margin, I am getting margin calls on my naked Puts (which don't expire for 9 more months). This would NOT have happened if Elon had been even close to accurate. After I weather this storm, I will NEVER, EVER, base any of my investing in TSLA on what Elon has to stay. I use to think people that called Elon a Liar were a bunch of paid trolls. Now I realized that half of them were right. This is a sad day for me because I have really admired the guy. Don't invest based on what Elon says - advice!
 
I'm long TSLA starting in 2012. I hold only shares. These big dips have happened often enough that I can not even remember how many! The dips always seem depressing emotionally. But I always buy at these time only to feel elation some days or weeks later. My overall cost basis on all my shares is still only about $140, so I don't know the feeling some of you later investors might feel. But I can say, Musk is a very bright fellow, Tesla will succeed and succeed well. So, if you are holding shares sleep well! Time sensitive investors, I wish you well.
 
umm....didn't they say on the most recent Q call that they had enough cash on hand to get to June with the Model 3 ramp up? That was their buffer.....seems like they will just make it, so all the "needing more capital raise" stuff is FUD/manipulation.....
 
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