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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Tesla has been less than transparent on this type of bad news in the past. They may know the answer, but are stalling for time. Just like M3 production number, who knows?

Trust me, Insiders (especially auditors or accountants or senior level management) know everything about the financial status, bottlenecks, and ramp-up numbers way better the government, media and outsider investors.. Some insiders even sold their stock positions before they release a bad press or earning report.
 
I know it’s Good Friday weekend soon but if you’re a Tesla employee be prepared to work overtime to churn this bad boy up and let the naysayers know emphatically we are in fact ramping at high speed, albeit it’ll be below 2,500. I’ll take 1,800 at this point, 2,500 by mid April is what I’m hearing from the street.

Rumor is they're shutting down the line Thursday, re-starting next Tuesday. Source seems to be an employee, don't know if he's reliable.

Charlie on Twitter
 
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Moody's: $TSLA "Tesla's liquidity position is not adequate to cover 2018 operating cash burn that will approximate $2 billion; debt maturities of $1.2 billion through early 2019. Cash needs will require a near-term capital raise exceeding $2 billion."

so theres that. But what does moodys know

was looking at those numbers last night in the 10K,

75% of that (a little over $900 million) is maturing in March of 2019... only about $300 million due before March. I say only, because here is the scale of what is going on- Tesla ended 2017 with about $3.4 billion in debt.

From a topline view, looks to me like the Model 3 ramp would need at least two more major (ie many months) delays before hitting 5K per month AND investors would have to be unwilling to loan Tesla money or buy more stock for there really to be a cash crunch. I'd put the odds of either of those events occurring at under 5%. I'd put the odds of both of those events occurring at under 0.25%.
 
Norway deliveries continue apace. By the end of the month - assuming 3 more elligible delivery days - I wouldn't be surprised if they're not up 100% on 1Q17...

Can you or any Norwegian give some color on Norway anticipating the 3? Is the sentiment that it’ll be as big or bigger seller than the S or X or those two combined? Will they like the smaller and sportier aspects or will they not like that they can’t load it with 2 tons of Ikea but instead only 1?
 
The shorts ending up on Elon's skewer AGAIN on the next big BBQ party is also a very real possibility.

Let me remind you about some past nay-sayers:
How Many Model S Electric Cars Can Tesla Really Sell?
So How Many 2012 Model S Electric Cars Can Tesla Really Sell?
IHS Automotive analyst Rebecca Lindland, for one, is skeptical that Tesla can move that many Model S cars in the current stage of electric-car market.
TechVines: Tesla banks on mass-market sales of Model S - Detroit Free Press
"The high price will limit sales, says Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with IHS Automotive. She doubts Tesla will reach its goal of selling 20,000 Model S sedans in 2013."
Her colleague Aaron Bragman was pithier yet, calling the company's plans to sell 30,000 cars a year "folly" in a March interview.
2012 Tesla Model S Electric Sedan: Industry Analyst Weighs In
Reality: The manufacturer sold 22,477 cars in 2013
Tesla's U.S. sales may be cooling off
Then they went on selling 60-80k per year... Folly indeed

Tesla is losing money on the model s:
In an article originally published on Reuters, Joseph White and Paul Lienert laughably claim that Tesla loses $4,000 on every car it sells.
Insight: Tesla burns cash, loses more than $4,000 on every car sold
Does Tesla really lose $4,000 on every car it sells?
Tesla's U.S. sales are cooling off. Investors are increasingly concerned about a decline in 2014 North American deliveries.
Reality: Model S is sold with 20+% gross margin

bmw tesla killers:
Conspicuous Consumption for the Smug Environmentalist
the i8 is arguably the first real challenger to Tesla’s eco-chic Model S.
BMW's 700 hp eDrive prototype can be a Tesla killer
BMW’s 700 hp eDrive prototype can be a Tesla killer
Reality: BMW sold 448 i8 in the US in 2017, while Tesla sold 27K Model S, i.e. 60 times as many! While the 700hp eDrive is nowhere to be found.

unbuildable model x:
Tesla Model X 'Unbuildable,' Business Model 'Upside Down': Chevy Volt Guy Bob Lutz Doubles Down
Reality: Tesla built and sold about 60K Model X last year.

Isn’t the Internet awesome? A place where everything you ever type is in the history books and can be pulled up at a moment’s notice to make you a hero or a fool.
 
That could mean that they already hit 2500 units a week and they are getting ready for the 5000 units.
I think that is extremely unlikely.
It's more likely those changes get them to about 2500 than that they are already there.

I'm pretty sure the jump to 5k doesn't require a long Shutdown persay, as part of it is installing the new additional battery pack line alongside the existing .Shouldn't need to shut the other one down until the final "okay hook it in" stage.
 
Anybody else plans to sell at the open and buy back when everything settles down? That's my plan if someone can convince me otherwise.

:rolleyes:

You do your thing; you seem to enjoy the emotional frenzy of your investment choices. I’ll just sit over here with my feet up relaxing and watching the show. Even though I’ve watched this movie more times than I can count, I’m always interested in seeing if the new players to the forum behave like those before them or if they suddenly learn the life lesson. So far they’re batting 0.000, but I remain hopeful.
 
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