bdy0627
Active Member
RSI on the hourly chart is around 17. Fairly oversold at the moment.
Edit: Now at 14.
Edit: Now at 14.
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I added during pre-market this morning at $268 and I'm lined up for a larger buy if we get to $250... just trying to feel out the bottom and not go all-in too soon (all shares, no leverage (yet)). The past couple of days have been really wild. Long TSLA!
What has been the catalyst for such a drop when the production ramp feels way more real now than when a few weeks ago ?
1) I don't think they need to raise any funds any time soon, possibly ever, 2) they've only issued straight debt once in the nearly six years I've been following the company. if they reach a point they want to raise funds again, straight debt may or many not be available at favorable terms, but, they can do a convertible offering or a stock offering as well.
Also, as a new investor, I appreciate all of the wisdom this thread and others have provided.
bdy0627
Active Member
Perfect storm, it seems, to drop sentiment through the floor. But nothing really has changed in the past few weeks with Tesla other than that the ramp now looks better than it did.
need to leave the house soon, but, worth keeping in mind there are institutional investors looking at Tesla's market cap currently at $43 billion, thinking, it's only once every few years you get an opening like this anywhere in the market. contrary to the propaganda campaign style pumping of the "Cult of Elon" narrative, Tesla is very heavily owned by institutional investors.
of course, I'm not leaving the house without another buy order entered at $252.80... last buy was $262 and change.
update: markets rebounding some, moved order up 50 cents and it executed. see you all later.
of course, I'm not leaving the house without another buy order entered at $252.80... last buy was $262 and change.
update: markets rebounding some, moved order up 50 cents and it executed. see you all later.
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bdy0627
Active Member
Something to note is that our RSI on the hourly chart is now below where it was at the bottom of the big dip in Feb 2016. It can always go lower, but it's now 14.8.
bdy0627
Active Member
It's basically all sellers and no buyers..people just dump whenever there's an up movement.
*raises hand*
Just bought a small lot of shares. My truck has officially been backed up and emptied. I had thought my core share position was set, but can't pass up this opportunity.
What I am saying is that Tesla has large purchase agreements, notably with Panasonic that bind Tesla to take up a number of cells (and pay for it) that they then need to warehouse because Model 3 and Tesla Energy production are both bottlenecked at the moment. These purchase agreements as reported are $2.7B for 2018 with over 90% from Panasonic. At $100 per kWh that's 27 GWh Tesla must buy this year. Guidance is 1 GWh of Tesla Energy product, leaving us with 26GWh of cells that Tesla is contractually bound to purchase. 9 for the S/X makes 17GWh for the Model 3 or enough for over 225 000 LR Model 3s. That's a number Tesla is almost guaranteed to miss. So will Panasonic let them off the hook, if they don't buy that many cells. Or will they buy them, pay for them and see cash being converted in inventory. So how you see that story unfold is very relevant in trying to determine Teslas cash position over this year.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Scrounged some more cash to transfer to my Fidelity account. Once it is there I will buy more TSLA. Buying yesterday at $280 seemed like a bargain at the time 
Maybe they're focusing on exit rate - maybe hard to prevent time off around Good Friday and Easter. Stop the clock on Wednesday or Thursday and let the workers rest. That way they lose a day or two of production, but the final week's production is maximized.
Or, as has been suggested, maybe this isn't happening at all...
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Same old same old as yesterday, or last week, the market is crazy right now, but nothing has changed with Tesla recently except that the ramp is going much better. The market is just relying on Bloomberg Tracker.
Speaking of which I took a closer look at their 2 methods, using VIN registration vs user reported VINs. Usually there is a ~2000 gap between the 2 methods, method 1 (VIN registration)l gives 2000 higher than model 2 (user VINs). But now the gap is down to ~1600, method 1 isn't keeping up the increasing pace as method 2. I really don't see any info that Bloomberg (or any outsider) could have that could decipher what VIN registration means, so I think it's reasonable to discount method 1 and focus more on method 2.
Doing the same sleuthing as what we do here on TMC, I eyeballed a line fit. I also estimated the size of each week as a blue box below. Using this scale, it looks like the slope now is at ~1300-1400/wk. Keeping in mind that Bloomberg doesn't clean up their data, people who received a low VINs a while ago but reporting it now gets the current date, so I think the slope is still underestimating the true slope.
dandurston
Member
Scrounged up some loose change for one J19 390 Leap.
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