TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

So Elon pulling earnings forward a week has caught me in the unfortunate position of having sold 295 weeklies on my 4000 shares this week for some cash flow.. not expecting any runup this early (wasnt going to take any covered call risks on the actual earnings report). Anyone have suggestions for recovering from this predicament? Im going to be kicking myself pretty hard for holding steady the last 8 years and blowing all the gains missing this earnings ==(

Buy back some options.

This is how I lost full position in NFLX, FB and AMZN and missed on 2x-4x gains. I wish I kept at least portion of the position.

This is also why I commented few times that this strategy is akin to picking pennies in front of the steamroller. You could collect lots of pennies, but you better be ready to sell at a price you write options. I'm not trying to criticize you, as I said, I did it myself, just repeating dangers for the sake of silent readers that may be considering it...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Or put in some capitol?

Non native speaker here. Seen this word being used here a few times. But isn’t capitol where the government resides and capital the stuff you can buy TSLA with?

 

[JRP3]

I always assumed SR would use same motor as LR simply because it's one less part variation to deal with. I hadn't ever really considered it plausible they'd build a smaller one. But perhaps at this scale, the cost savings per unit outweigh the additional overhead and logistics of having another part variation.

I think the size and cost difference would be too small to bother.

 

[tivoboy]

Non native speaker here. Seen this word being used here a few times. But isn’t capitol where the government resides and capital the stuff you can buy TSLA with?

Thanks Siri

 

[Carl Raymond]

Hi Carl,

So, did you have lunch, or are you waiting for a banquet?

Cheers!

Yeah, I'm smiling. I was all in. Tipped off my two daughters yesterday that the stock was about to jump. One picked up 8 in pre-trade at $258. So today I'm psychic super dad. Got a good feeling about the ER too - dessert to come.
Cheers
(edit: confusing post if I don't clarify that it's already Wednesday here Australia - the action for us is overnight)

 

[Zaxxon]

Smeagol, his B.S. unravelled.

In case anyone here isn't an old fart like some of us, these are inspired by Darmok, one of Star Trek: TNG's classic episodes. Well worth the two bucks for anyone interested (YouTube), or on Netflix and Amazon Prime Video if you've got either of those.

Incidentally, Picard's experience in Darmok conveys the feeling I often have when trying to explain Tesla to folks who have never experienced the car for themselves.

 

[wipster]

His name is That Which Must Not Be Spoken Of

(it's Gabe Hoffmann, he's a pos)

You are correct, he is a true POS! Hopefully the first, and last, time I hear of him.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Why not? Say TSLA recieves 0% loan from them to build GF4 there, what's wrong with that? (plus maybe tax incentives)
It will obviously speed up the EV adoption and afterall, that's probably the core TSLA mission.

The negative association with KSA could easily do more harm than good for some time. And all the anti-Tesla people will happily remember this for years, even after the rest of the world has once again forgotten the sins of KSA.

 

[MXWing]

In case anyone here isn't an old fart like some of us, these are inspired by Darmok, one of Star Trek: TNG's classic episodes. Well worth the two bucks for anyone interested (YouTube), or on Netflix and Amazon Prime Video if you've got either of those.

Incidentally, Picard's experience in Darmok conveys the feeling I often have when trying to explain Tesla to folks who have never experienced the car for themselves.

Darmok is a wonderful story that stands on its own. You don’t need to have any seen any Star Trek at all to enjoy it.

Test drove a Model X in 2016, put down an order, and bought sizeable TSLA the first trading day.
Car before the stock.

My eyes open.

 

[oneday]

Smeagol, his B.S. unravelled.

Einhorn, his short shorts unsightly

 

[Cherry Wine]

Priced jumped up $2.00 in AH. Any thoughts on the move?

 

[tivoboy]

I think Tesla didn't want to give Wall Street time to play it's "expectations management" game; i.e. slowly upping their forecasts into the earnings call so that TSLA eventually misses it.

I think the move up of the earnings call could have been just a bit more logistical and practical than anything else. I'm not reading into it that there are "great results" that they just can't wait to release. As some analysts have alluded to.

The company likes to do earnings calls on Wednesday. So, next week will be Halloween. Elon, and many other parents probably want to take their kids trick or treating that late afternoon, evening. Certainly on the EAST coast, it will already be night time, so all the analysts, etc will want to be out with kids. I'll add, that having worked in domestic auto factories before, we've also had Halloween trick or treat IN the factory. People dress up, bring in their kids, etc. Maybe something like that is going on. For those of you who don't already know this, Halloween is the in the top five largest holiday in the USA. Crazy. In years past, it was top three.

The following week, 11.7.18 well, it could be even SCARIER than Halloween. The day AFTER what is going to be arguably the most relevant mid-term elections in at least MY lifetime could provide some SIGNIFICANT market volatility and or an earnings call results, great or not, could be totally LOST in the market narrative of possibly a 5-8% overall market sell off (I'm not predicting this, but it has been discussed). So, better to steer clear of these macro milestones if one is able to.

 

[hacer]

Have to agree. But just to be clear, you mean the short seller?

Here's the full letter (actually using 4 of our charts): https://citronresearch.com/wp-conte...n-on-Tesla-story-too-compelling-to-ignore.pdf

Hmm, did they get your permission to use your charts? If not that's a copyright crime because they used them for a commercial purpose. Could be big money suing them for infringment.

 

[M3Rider]

Non native speaker here. Seen this word being used here a few times. But isn’t capitol where the government resides and capital the stuff you can buy TSLA with?

The easiest way to track down non native speakers in this thread is to see who puts $ sign after the amount, not in front of it.
It'd be obvious to you a lot sooner

 

[dqd88]

Ooo this is going to be a fun, violent high volume day.

Imma predict 277 SP at close.

Only 277? Where's your optimism?!

 

[mltv]

I think the move up of the earnings call could have been just a bit more logistical and practical than anything else. I'm not reading into it that there are "great results" that they just can't wait to release. As some analysts have alluded to.

The company likes to do earnings calls on Wednesday. So, next week will be Halloween. Elon, and many other parents probably want to take their kids trick or treating that late afternoon, evening. Certainly on the EAST coast, it will already be night time, so all the analysts, etc will want to be out with kids. I'll add, that having worked in domestic auto factories before, we've also had Halloween trick or treat IN the factory. People dress up, bring in their kids, etc. Maybe something like that is going on. For those of you who don't already know this, Halloween is the in the top five largest holiday in the USA. Crazy. In years past, it was top three.

The following week, 11.7.18 well, it could be even SCARIER than Halloween. The day AFTER what is going to be arguably the most relevant mid-term elections in at least MY lifetime could provide some SIGNIFICANT market volatility and or an earnings call results, great or not, could be totally LOST in the market narrative of possibly a 5-8% overall market sell off (I'm not predicting this, but it has been discussed). So, better to steer clear of these macro milestones if one is able to.

You are probably right. wouldn't want the TSLA investors (long or short) be driving out there with more than driving on their minds with all the kids out there.

 

[sundaymorning]

$297-298 AH, shorts are in panic mode. Tomorrow will be fun.

 

[bdy0627]

Andrew Left: I'll leave this here:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Love this interview with Left. He absolutely nails it, which is totally crazy hearing it from the head short seller. It's astounding how sentiment is doing a 180 suddenly...just before earnings, with TSLA at the way bottom of the trading range. Coincidence??? Regardless, everyone should watch this interview just to finally hear this short making all the points we have made for a very long time here.

 

[oneday]

Remember, ANY manufacturer is going to have a significant cost advantage compared to Tesla come H119, and certainly H219. for an A3 etron and e-golf and an imported ID platform vehicle VWAG could be well positioned to significantly increase NA sales - and that's what I find compelling

I call bull on this one. They may have some cost advantage. On things like door handles, windows, stamped panels sure. But certainly not on things like electric drivetrain components. The battery, electric motors, inverters, and control components they will have a significant cost disadvantage.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I'd cool it on goading the shorts. I'm a long and a TSLA bull for sure but I've seen this a bunch of times .... I'm really hoping that we see some positive earnings tomorrow but I'm POSITIVE there will be plenty in the report to spin as negative ... there always is.

Long term I think we are in good shape and I think Tesla in 5 years will be very profitable and the leading car manufacturer in the world .... what happens in the next few months is anyone's guess and let's face it ... recent shorts have been winning. Of course I'm talking about those that shorted when we were in the mid to high 300s. Many of them still have profit and are not in panic mode at all ....

Not trying to rain on anyone's parade but let's keep this in check .... Tesla is a volatile stock and company ... it's got HUGE upside potential but it's also still risky.

Cheers to the longs