TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

The shorts are turning on their own: Why Citron Is Wrong on Tesla

Wahlman's claiming that Left is just being an opportunist and that he's jumping ship due to the threat of a profitable Q3. He think's it's just a temporary blip and all part of the show. wahlman and spiegel are still in denial. I'd love to see the looks on pablo santos and montana skeptic's faces as they realize their potemkin village is collapsing!

That means, the retail shorts haven't capitulated yet. Tomorrow will probably be a holding pattern or a slow SP rise until earnings.

Andrew left, MBS, MS, chanos et al holding the bag.

 

[dgodfrey]

It would be even funnier if it was in miles per gallon with an assumed 30mpg.
So like 80 cents per gallon. (or whatever it maths out to in the local area)

Can you imagine the confusion at the superchargers that are at gas stations?
Or should we call it enlightenment?

It would also catch the eye of the ICEV drivers when you put it into a context they understand. If you only base it on $/kWh, they won't have a clue how it compares to gas $.

 

[Reciprocity]

What would happen to the Japanese production capacity for those old cells when they switch to the new Gigafactory cells for Model S and X? In this battery constrained world it would be a pity for Tesla to give up on that capacity. It’s still very useful for storage.

They will upgrade their machines for 2170, or continue to make cells for other autos. Doubt they would just shut it down completely.

My theory, and I know it's nuts, but my theory is that Tesla will continue to sell the 100D as 18650 and come out with a P120D to start, then straight 120D. They will get rid of the 75Ds at that point as those are replaced by higher end model 3s in terms of price and market segment.

10GWh is what Panasonic makes in 18650s, so that's a lot of cells to just cut off completely. So I expect at the very least that they will make cells for other car makers.

 

[BornToFly]

I thought it was absolutely brilliant when Tesla announced last night that it would release earnings in just two days. I was very confident that there would be a good rise today, although I thought it would be in the 5-10% range. The short notice gave no time for the FUDsters to make up more false facts to spew all over the internet to drive the SP down even further. Of course, when I saw what the rest of the market was doing, I felt even luckier because TSLA would have been destroyed today without the announcement. I'm going to sell some of my calls tomorrow before close and convert them to more shares, just in case we get another buy the rumor, sell the news even (they won't go down as much, but if the SP continues to climb, I'll still benefit). Good luck everyone!

 

[HG Wells]

And so TSLA closes up 12,72%. AFAIK, Tesla's highest ever daily increase was ~16,5% in 2013.

I think we will beat that 16.5% on Thursday.

 

[bhtooefr]

The difference in top speed and acceleration may just be due to current limits from the reduced-cell battery. Though it would be an interesting twist of the SR was intended to use a lower power motor and those were ready but the SR packs weren't so they decided to build hybrid "MR" with SR motor/inverter and cell-reduced LR architecture pack (as MR pack).

The MR specs are about the same acceleration but reduced top speed from SR, and I just assumed that the SR pack would have less oomph and the MR pack does too, but maybe the cell reduction method to make a MR on LR architecture actually ends up with less peak power for less top speed than the SR. If that's the case, perhaps it would explain the MR having a lower top speed than the SR, even if they used the same motor. Of course, we might just see the top speed of the SR reduced too.

I always assumed SR would use same motor as LR simply because it's one less part variation to deal with. I hadn't ever really considered it plausible they'd build a smaller one. But perhaps at this scale, the cost savings per unit outweigh the additional overhead and logistics of having another part variation.

Personally, I don't see how the SR could be more powerful than the MR, unless Tesla is using a different cell design (more optimized for power, less for capacity) for the SR. Previously, 96s31p was the configuration that had been found for the LR-architecture-SR by Electrek, with 96s46p for the LR, and my guess is 96s36p for the MR (the front page article is wrong - 3446 cells does not evenly fit into the LR architecture, it'd be 96s35.9p in that case, so I'm guessing 3456 cells). So, I think it has to be that they just didn't have the power to do 130 mph on the MR, which doesn't bode well for the SR's top speed either.

As far as motors... the rear motor in a Dual Motor non-Performance car has a lower rating than the RWD or Performance cars (although we also know that many (most? all?) Dual Motor cars are built as Performance in reality, and just software-locked to be slower). Could be that there was a glut of lower-rated motors that they want to allocate to the MRs? Also, interestingly (although it could be a side effect of the battery being smaller, too), the warranty is 8/100 instead of 8/120 on the MR.

 

[Boomer19]

Wow "Citron Research" is embarrassing. I basically don't know anything and I could come up with a better research paper on Tesla (Substance + Style) in about 3 hours.

Must be nice - slap this piece of crap together, confirm you're going on cnbc and then buy some calls.

yep, all perfectly legal by current sec standards. smh

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Regardless, everyone should watch this interview just to finally hear this short making all the points we have made for a very long time here.

Indeed. Him being the first... well...
Only Nixon could go to China. Ancient Vulcan saying.

 

[elasalle]

I think we will beat that 16.5% on Thursday.

Possible, mainly because we are taking back lost territory.

 

[Boomer19]

His name is That Which Must Not Be Spoken Of

(it's Gabe Hoffmann, he's a pos)

yes, he’s a lying sausage of a used car salesman. they all are, let’s be honest

 

[Reciprocity]

Currently, the Chinese market is closed off to Tesla.

Last year Tesla said China accounted for 17% of Tesla automotive revenue.

They did not say 17% of unit sales but I would say at least 12%.

It is really quite amazing Tesla Gen II vehicles still production constrained without access to world's largest BEV market.

Timing is also helping Tesla. With tax credits expiring, pulling some demand in the US forward and starving regions or outside the US over the last half of 2018. Starting Jan 1, the tax credits are still there just a bit smaller and pent up demand in Europe should ease the China pain. By mid 2019, either the tariffs are solved and/or Tesla releases 120D on 2170 with refined interior and HUD. Tesla had always been supply constrained with S/X and they gave always shifted deliveries to where it made the most sense.

How fast can Tesla build a factory in China to do knock down kits for model S/X? Can they get model 3 production my Q1 2020? Time will tell.

 

[Zaxxon]

It ended up $3.44 on 265k shares. I think it means we’re not done yet.

Uhh, yeah. We've got over a hundred bucks to go. It's ludicrous that the stock is not at ATH given what this report will deliver.

 

[Boomer19]

But you left out the details that he just wanted to re-short at a higher price: Gabe Hoffman on Twitter



So no change of heart.

OK Maybe you were talking about Richard Pearson/MoxReports: MoxReports on Twitter



But he sort of contradicts himself, as just 2 hours prior to that he said he wasn't long TSLA. And Tesla had already moved up the earnings release... Did it really take him that long to find out that Tesla announced a date?

haha exactly!
they’re just all hustler liars trying to portray a story about themselves, their firms, and their strategies as if their work is something cutting edge and hasn’t been done before. “other shops do this, but here we like to....”
but it’s all bullshit.
the concept of taking advantage of someone isn’t much different then when jed traded fletcher two pelts and a bottle of shine for a pair of boots, and one made out poorly on the deal.
nowadays, they’re still cherry picking the weak and throwing them under the bus on the way to the front of the line, but using media deception and other smoke and mirror tactics when needed, all with the stamp of approval and SECurity they enjoy from regulatory bodies.

 

[generalenthu]

Pretty well written argument from Mr. Left today. When he was short TSLA, how many of these arguments were false? It was pretty clear they were headed for a big quarter, sometime ago.

Lesson is big guys talk their book, and don't be surprised if you see the tune changing. Don't be caught with convered calls, or try what @tivoboy was saying, by selling and looking to buy under 260 after q3 earnings.

 

[defc0n]

Maybe a strange time to ask, but does anyone have any clue what happened with the large amount of projects going on in Puerto Rico? Has Tesla already received revenue from that?

 

[EVNow]

I think we will beat that 16.5% on Thursday.

I'm wondering whether the price action today was all because some shorts got afraid - or is positive earnings is also assumed ? What happens on Thursday depends on the answer to this question.

BTW, on 9/28 SP lost 14.5%. It gained 17.3% the next day on 10/1. This was the SEC suit and settlement.

 

[BornToFly]

I worry that the FUD machine will go 100% after the ER, especially if there is still a small GAAP loss. They will ignore positive cash flow, and the headlines will read that Tesla still can't make a profit even with record sales....

 

[MP3Mike]

Is there a firewall b/w Chanos and Left at Citron?

Huh? Chanos doesn't work at/for Citron. He is the president/founder of Kynikos Associates. Why would there be a firewall between two different companies?

 

[elasalle]

Huh? Chanos doesn't work at/for Citron. He is the president/founder of Kynikos Associates. Why would there be a firewall between two different companies?

duhh, thanks (foolish me )

 

[shrspeedblade]

Chanos and Einhorn, trying to hold on:

Now this is what I want to see the rest of the week!