TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachShahan]

Exercising and selling stock options immediately is a nice, low stress strategy that in the long run is still going to perform similarly to trying to time the market. It also allows diversification away from him sole source of income.

It's also much easier to put on an "automatic" exercising and selling plan that the SEC requires of insiders on the level of Deepak, who by the nature of his job is always in possession of material non-public information.

Ah, so now we finally know, you are Deepak, not Elon!

 

[jhm]

Those who ordered $54k LRs, but did not get them yet - I assume they also will get $1k back?

Yes. Tesla says, “We made a slight adjustment to our pricing for Model 3 following the introduction of the Mid Range Battery last week. We will honor the lower pricing for all in-progress orders.” So anyone who took the chance of ordering early and is still waiting on delivery will be getting the benefit of the price adjustment.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

So this is an overheated economy with hiking interest rates. What are the parallels? 2009 presumably but no one thinks banks are at risk this time. I don't understand the level of fear here... who's the macro wizards here?

 

[tivoboy]

So this is an overheated economy with hiking interest rates. What are the parallels? 2009 presumably but no one thinks banks are at risk this time. I don't understand the level of fear here... who's the macro wizards here?

Well, technically the last time the fed started raising rates was in May 2004, and it STOPPED in dec 2007.. after that, well it wasn't pretty. By 2009 - well we all know that story.

For a better possible parallel (so MANY things are different in the world between decades its really hard to do apples to apples compares), one might look to the 1993-1999 period. Similar job growth (although we had better job growth up to a couple years ago), similar levels of employment, rates were HIGHER to begin but they were in a tightening phase. GDP growth was BETTER back then, but of course still rising. We were CLOSER to a prior recession, that really is something but that period was a solid sustained growth in earnings, and market growth.

I don't see us lasting that long though.

 

[FS_FRA]

So this is an overheated economy with hiking interest rates. What are the parallels? 2009 presumably but no one thinks banks are at risk this time. I don't understand the level of fear here... who's the macro wizards here?

Sub-prime auto-loans?

Your president and his clear grasp of economics of any dimension /s

etc...??

 

[Bobbyducati]

rolling in to this with 265 short call @ $34, and some extra shares on top of that. I want to believe we're off to the moon, but ive lost count how many times the opposite has happened. I hope i am forced to roll that call forward on friday

 

[jhm]

F is a four letter word, right?

It's a one-digit word.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Sub-prime auto-loans?

Your president and his clear grasp of economics of any dimension /s

etc...??

What. You mean it doesn't make sense to brag that the tariffs are filling the treasury coffers? Or that China is screwing us because there's a net trade imbalance? It's called 'imbalance' for a reason right!? It doesn't make sense to give fiscal stimulus in a fully employed economy and then complain about rising interest?

I almost feel like the illuminati orchestrate these market raids to force the administrations to do their bidding.

 

[beachbum77]

And a base F-150 is only 30 centimetres longer than a Model X. Given that the bumper of a pickup usually sticks out about that much further behind the rear wheels than the bumper of a SUV behind its rear wheels, that's pretty much a match.

As for whether Y will be as big as X, that'll have to be a "let's agree to disagree" concept until the unveiling



Come on now. Are you really going to make me point out that I repeatedly pointed out that you get a far better lightness-bank-for-your-buck by cutting cell cost-per-kWh and redirecting money into reducing frame mass, than you do by increasing cell energy density? I was literally talking about how chassis mass reductions are the affordable way to keep costs down.

Karen, That F-150 is not a heavy duty truck. HD starts with the F-250 on a heavy steel frame. Unit body construction does not work for HD applications due to the stress loads that can lead the bodies to warp and twist.

HD applications are almost entire crew cab 4x4 configurations too in the U.S. and Canada. Visit any construction site and look around at what they buy on your next visit to NA.

 

[shrspeedblade]

That would seem similar to speculating that the Model 3 was going to be as big as the Model S. They already have a Model X, why would they make what is supposed to be a less expensive version the same size?

I tend to agree, especially when you consider what some of the top selling vehicles in the U.S. are:

These are the 20 best-selling cars and trucks in America in 2018

The Rav-4/Escape/CR-V/Rogue are all hot. With Tesla's EV skateboard packaging advantages it could be much like the 3, more interior room for their class.

 

[RobStark]

The DMV registered new vehicle pricing has been available for years, if you knew where to get it. Today, that data is basically what TrueCar uses to build their dealer pricing quotes. Every new car that is purchased and registered in a zip code, that pricing is available.

How does a regular person access this data?

I know insurance companies and law enforcement agencies can.

With permission from each automaker data marketing companies can get this information from that specific company. Aggregate that information and resell it for $$$ in market research reports.

And TrueCar gives you the best price on base models last I checked.

 

[FS_FRA]

What. You mean it doesn't make sense to brag that the tariffs are filling the treasury coffers? Or that China is screwing us because there's a net trade imbalance? It's called 'imbalance' for a reason right!? It doesn't make sense to give fiscal stimulus in a fully employed economy and then complain about rising interest?

I almost feel like the illuminati orchestrate these market raids to force the administrations to do their bidding.

Sorry! Forgot...clearly I'm not the macro econ wizard I thought I was.....


...except I was kinda serious about the sub-prime auto loans issue!

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Well, technically the last time the fed started raising rates was in May 2004, and it STOPPED in dec 2007.. after that, well it wasn't pretty. By 2009 - well we all know that story.

For a better possible parallel (so MANY things are different in the world between decades its really hard to do apples to apples compares), one might look to the 1993-1999 period. Similar job growth (although we had better job growth up to a couple years ago), similar levels of employment, rates were HIGHER to begin but they were in a tightening phase. GDP growth was BETTER back then, but of course still rising. We were CLOSER to a prior recession, that really is something but that period was a solid sustained growth in earnings, and market growth.

I don't see us lasting that long though.

By the time 2000 came around the market multiples were absurd. Really doesn't seem comparable.

 

[tivoboy]

By the time 2000 came around the market multiples were absurd. Really doesn't seem comparable.

Not the entire market, a part of the market for sure.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

The DMV registered new vehicle pricing has been available for years, if you knew where to get it. Today, that data is basically what TrueCar uses to build their dealer pricing quotes. Every new car that is purchased and registered in a zip code, that pricing is available.

Exactly.

The reason people buy you dinner at Morton's is because they would be fleeced by the dealership otherwise. Thanks for not recognizing the glaringly obvious problem.

 

[tivoboy]

And TrueCar gives you the best price on base models last I checked.

One can customize a selected model and configurations on truecar and it will update the prices paid modeling.

 

[ZachShahan]

Interesting speculation - Gali thinks MOdel Y and Semi will be built at G1.
Gali on Twitter

I think that's been a pretty broad assumption for months, though, hasn't it?

 

[Todd Burch]

I think that's been a pretty broad assumption for months, though, hasn't it?

Agree. I don't think it would make sense for Tesla to make the new lines of vehicles anywhere else. They have abundant land, and collocating with cell production lowers logistics costs.

 

[M3Rider]

Old trick: their estimate is valid for about 12 hours only, when Tesla reports and "misses" Goldman's over the top estimate...

Since this clearly bad faith GS estimate had a clear impact on the TSLA price, the SEC should start an investigation and request documents from GS, to determine whether any illegal market manipulation took place that harmed Tesla investors.

I.e. the SEC should investigate the real, large scale, market moving fraud on Wall Street, not the micro-cap peanuts and Elon tweets they seem to be wasting their resources on these days ...

Seems this is an example of manipulation that would be nice to highlight as @Papafox has done once in CleanTechnica. Would be even nicer to highlight it before the fact(ER) to show that this is plainly visible, but not to SEC.

 

[EVNow]

Legacy OEMs regularly change cash back incentives and subsidized lease rates while keeping MSRP the same.

Not to mention kickbacks to dealers.

Yes, once a month.