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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. Unpilot

    Unpilot Sell order in at $5999.99

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    The bear spin is some weak as shat...if you know what I mean
     
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  2. Jayjs20

    Jayjs20 Member

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    I think for him, it's just a matter of pride vs money

    Anyways, remember two days ago when we were at 260? So far, it's +70 in 2 days+AH
     
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  3. ZachF

    ZachF Active Member

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    $330 AH
     
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  4. MarcusMaximus

    MarcusMaximus Active Member

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    $331, holy hell.
     
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  5. Bobbyducati

    Bobbyducati Member

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    well i sold all my excess shares at @320 on an order i placed earlier today. and my short call caps me out at $299/share so at this point im maxed out profit wise. congrats to everyone!
     
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  6. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

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    I think $325 is going to stick.
    4444Capture.PNG
     
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  7. T-Will

    T-Will Member

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    What happens now??

    upload_2018-10-24_14-4-41.png
     
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  8. azaz

    azaz Active Member

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    Charley Grant of WSJ who demonstrates straight up animosity towards Elon hasn't tweeted since the letter

    LMFAO
     
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  9. Wnuk

    Wnuk Member

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    Hope this doesn't turn into a NFLX. Macros are troubling, we need this to hold.
     
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  10. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    • Like x 18
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  11. MarcusMaximus

    MarcusMaximus Active Member

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  12. MXWing

    MXWing Well-Known Member

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    "I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."

    TESLAQ motherfrackers

    WHOOP WHOOP
     
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  13. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Active Member

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    Finally I have the feeling, the outlook for the next quarter is not too optimistic. A win should feel like a win.
     
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  14. mikevbf

    mikevbf Supporting Member

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    The plan is to produce batteries in all future GF's, but it is not clear in the report when they will start that aspect of the production in China.
     
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  15. EV forever

    EV forever Supporting Member

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    #52675 EV forever, Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 24, 2018
    Tesla guided for 15% in Q3 and achieved 20%. I find it positive to super positive honestly.

    20% exceeds past guidance. Rest of your post is spinning a negative tale where none exists.

    Mod: Offending post deleted on those grounds. Please stop responses.
     
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  16. Compton

    Compton Member

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    White shorts are turning brown.
     
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  17. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #52677 Ulmo, Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
    They are, but it is another short's lie, because from Q2 to Q3 accounts receivable increased $18,636,000 more than accounts payable increased, i.e., a growing company making more revenue, which has been the story all along, leading to more profit.

    It seems as if all the shorts come from declining companies that never grew in their life, and don't even know what it looks like, and all the manufacturing analysts left for offshores long ago because we are supposed to be a "service economy", but now we aren't any more and they are miffed because their offshore stuff isn't doing what they want.
     
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  18. ThereAre4Cars

    ThereAre4Cars Member

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    Yeah the tariff is an understandable adjustment like fx but since it's small (50M$) we can ignore it's implications. The mix of lower margin versions is plus or minus an adjustment to the margin outlook depending on just how many sell, since on the other hand the P and AWD sales again are higher than prior expectation.
     
  19. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #52679 Fact Checking, Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
    I have just gone through the update letter with a fine comb, including the numbers, and WOW.

    There's not a single negative note compared to realistic expectations. The China tariffs were expected and a -$50m hit from them is much lower than expected.

    Some highlights:
    • They only sold $50m in ZEV credits - I.e. below last year's levels, and still made a record quarter.
    • Very little "accounts payable" cash generation: the 1.3b generated from operations is genuine and sustainable (!)
    • Inventory levels are picture perfect.
    • Opex got reduced (!), this is a beat as well.
    • Model 3 gross margin above 20% - this is way above guidance and was the main driver of this jaw-dropping quarter and profitability.
    • Capex lower than expected, despite accelerated GF3 investments.
    • They are guiding to pay back bonds in cash in Q4, and paid back $80m+ bonds in cash this quarter already.
    • In Q3 Tesla already earned enough cash to pay back the $920m March 2019 notes (!), the "Cash Crunch" bear thesis is dead.
    • If Moody's was consistent they'd have to upgrade Tesla's credit rating to investment grade right now.
    • Customer up-sales from <35k cars is ~50% of trade-ins, this indicates an at least twice as large addressable market for the Model 3 in the U.S. as we speculated about so far (!).
    • They expect even better Model 3 sales in Europe, because the mid size premium sedan market is twice as large there. (!)
    • They expect to start assembling the first Model 3's in the Shanghai Gigafactory in 2019 already (!), which should be fantastic for China sales and margins, as these units will have 0% Chinese import tariffs.
    • Guidance for Q4: similarly robust cash generation expected - this is good news in term of future Gigafactories and revenue growth.
    • No equity raise needed or planned, convertibles get paid in cash not shares, no dilution!
    I'm absolutely stunned!

    Lots of kudos to @luvb2b for calling this correctly: that was a masterpiece of a model.
     
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  20. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

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    Well they are going to start taking orders for Model 3 delivery in China this year, and plan for GF3 to be making Model 3s sometime next year... Maybe the first Model 3s will be imported... (I can't imagine people wanting to wait 3/4 of a year after they place their Model 3 order.)
     
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