TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[X Fan]

Panasonic second-quarter profit down 15 percent as investment in Tesla batteries weigh
https://www.panasonic.com/global/corporate/ir/pdf/2018_2q/2q_financial_results_e.pdf

Looks like Panasonic incurred additional opex because they had to ramp battery production at Gigafactory 1 faster than initially anticipated.
Guiding to reach 35GWh capacity by end of Fiscal Year 2019. (March 31st 2019 is end of FY19 if I'm reading their financial calendar correctly. Consolidated Financial Results and Supplemental Financial Data for Fiscal 2018, the year ended March 31, 2018 | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global)

Aren’t we looking at 2018 PDF summarizing their 2018 fiscal year? Recent changes would not be reflected in that publication

 

[MXWing]

The first 4 vehicles were fundamentally different and bet the company moves.

As long as falcon wing doors are not on the Model Y, then Model Y production is not fundamentally different than Model 3.

Roadster. First long range ulta premium EV.

Model S First long range premium EV.

Model X. Can Tesla manufacture falcon wing doors at scale profitably?

Model 3. Can Tesla mass manufacture an entry level luxury car profitably?

Model Y shouldn't be can Tesla mass manufacture an entry level luxury car with Falcon Wing doors profitably. It should a Model 3 with slightly different silhouette.

Shorts can make disingenuous arguments but the market won't care.

Semi and Pickup are not bet the company projects once SEXY is successful.

They can be failures and the company can still move forward. But I very much doubt they will be failures.

Model Y has FWD? Has this been confirmed?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Full Spooky Demo:

D Shawn Kennedy on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

Model Y has FWD? Has this been confirmed?

I said Model Y shouldn't have FWD.

A little over 2 years ago Elon tweeted either Model 3 or Model Y will have falcon wing doors. Since then he deleted the tweet.

 

[Tslynk67]

Can't see it in his feed. Reply to someone? Link? TIA

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

Wishing you maps in Germany...

Well I'm in Belgium, but one assumes they'll both come at the same time...

 

[UncaNed]

Model Y has FWD? Has this been confirmed?

Who's hoping against FWDs on Model Y and why? Model X owners? IMHO as the owner of a flawless 2018 Model X, large numbers of model Ys with attention-getting Falcon Wing doors would be an excellent attention-getting marketing device. I haven't heard of any FWD issues lately, and mine work perfectly after 5,300 miles, so I think they have the design right. I'd have preferred a plain vanilla Tesla delivery van, but since I can't have that, at least I get to drive something really cool!

 

[SpaceCash]

Full Spooky Demo:

D Shawn Kennedy on Twitter

ABSOLUTE MADMAN!!!! <3<3<3

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon Musk on Twitter

oohthankgod

 

[MXWing]

I said Model Y shouldn't have FWD.

A little over 2 years ago Elon tweeted either Model 3 or Model Y will have falcon wing doors. Since then he deleted the tweet.

FWD on the Y would be a terrible idea. When you are trying to sell 500,000 of a vehicle you want it to be as simple as possible.

Model X doors creak pretty often. It’s not serious but can you imagine hundreds of thousands of Y owners trying to line up to get that serviced?

The X was an attention getter and good for advertising. However not everyone appreciates that attention and the 3 will be ubiquitous by the time Y is for sale.

 

[Zaxxon]

That may be true until they unveil/start producing Model Y. Then the cycle repeats.
"Tesla won't be able to produce the Model Y".
"Ok, but they can't make it at a profit".
"Ok, they can make a profit but they can't ramp production".
Replace with Model Y with the Semi or pickup. This was true for Model S, then repeated for Model X, again with Model 3. I don't believe it will be different with coming models.

I was all ready to reply to this, and then @RobStark beat me to it. Short version: those arguments will hold [even] less water with future vehicles than with the prior ones. The S/X/3 were all novel to the industry and to Tesla in some way (long-range EV, FWD, cheaper long-range and high volume). The Y is a slightly different 3, at similar volume/price/range--and the 3 is now profitably being produced by the hundreds of thousands/year. The risk involved in launching the Y is a small fraction of the risk last year with the 3. The Semi is a relatively simple body with Model 3 motors and packs, at relatively low volume. Low risk. The pickup will perhaps be novel, but by that point the Y and Semi will be successful, Tesla Energy will be ramped significantly compared to now, and Tesla will have half a dozen products on which to lean while ramping the pickup.

 

[SOULPEDL]

They are running out of topics.

Workplace safety concerns? Busted. Worst finding from CALOSHA was a misplaced extension cord.
High rates of production scrap? Never even hit the bottom line.
SEC investigation? Wrapped, no real impact, and no impact to the bottom line.
Lawsuits related to Model 3 production and share price? Tossed out by the judge.
Elon is eccentric? So f'ing what. The dude delivers.
Parking lots full of unsold cars? Oh right, they all got sold.
Can't make money selling cars? Ha!

The only thing I see left in the quiver for shorts to grab is another push on the DOJ story. But that's a straw, not an arrow.

This questions was exactly what Tesla did as a fishbone brainstorming session IMO, and the answer was safety which clearly received a lot of air time on the CC. My guess is the next weakness is EAP accidents.

Yesterday's civil lawsuit on Autopilot scared me (freeway, fastlane, disabled car in lane, rear-ended, injury). Stock doesn't seem bothered. He's accusing sales for his false sense of security even though this exact scenario was documented as a risk factor in the S User's Manual regarding speeds over 50 mph. Anyway, EAP crashes are at the top of my fear list, but I do love the new Safety data that Tesla started publishing quarterly - best anti-FUD on safety there is.

This risk IMO went down in the V9 upgrade (more aware and overall smarts), but the complexity also went up with NoA. It's both creepy and exciting when the car automatically activates your turn signal and changes lanes to change or exit freeways. When all lane changes are automatic, that will be scary at first. And when I say creepy/scary, it's not because it's Halloween today... I think it's that I have to monitor much more activity, (like when I tested Mad Max in rush hour traffic, taking every lane change as an advice. YIKES). Love it still, trusting more in time.

 

[Ulmo]

FWD on the Y would be a terrible idea. When you are trying to sell 500,000 of a vehicle you want it to be as simple as possible.

Model X doors creak pretty often. It’s not serious but can you imagine hundreds of thousands of Y owners trying to line up to get that serviced?

The X was an attention getter and good for advertising. However not everyone appreciates that attention and the 3 will be ubiquitous once the Y is for sale.

I agree with everything, with the caveat that they may think they have "solved" those problems due to experience and fixes, and go ahead anyway. I, like you, am a bit suspect of that approach unless they have an iteratively improved design they've thoroughly tested and works well. Model Y would not be the time to introduce highly speculative experiments that haven't been thoroughly tested and vetted.

 

[electracity]

ABSOLUTE MADMAN!!!! <3<3<3

Fred Costanza can now endorse Tesla.

 

[Mokuzai]

Power hour??

 

[wipster]

It's time for a 360, followed by 383, 413, 426, and a 440 six pack, s3x pack, or a handy shack pack for you weekenders...

 

[anthonyj]

Hilarious. It drops on super low volume and pops on high volume all day. $420 next week

 

[scaesare]

I've heard about starlink using phased array, but I didn't find anything definitive, care to share the source?

Admittedly, I am not privy to any insider details, but when I hear a constellation of over 10,000 satellites, I'm thinking it's very low in LEO orbit, and maximum capital efficiency dictates direct-to-customer transmission. Using ground-based relay/santennas adds cost (capital AND opex) and complexity, when your relay station can be 60-100 miles away from anywhere on earth somewhere in the sky. It just doesn't pencil out otherwise. Is there another thread that's already discussed this in detail?

The ground-relay scenario is when you need to bridge to a different medium, such as being the backhaul for a cell site. That arrangement allows service to small mobile terminals (i.e. phones and your Tesla car) usting the appropriate technology to meet the antenna/size & mobility requirements, yet use Starlink for the backhaul.

 

[scaesare]

Sorry, incorrect. The speed of light in fiber is about 1/3rd speed of light in a vacuum. You can get from anywhere on earth to the exact opposite point with only two intermediate (and two endpoint) satellites. Theoretically, at least, Starlink will be much lower latency for long distances.

I believe the rule of thumb is that light speed is reduced by about 1/3c in fiber... so the speed is about 2/3c or twice as fast as you suggest.

 

[MXWing]

I agree with everything, with the caveat that they may think they have "solved" those problems due to experience and fixes, and go ahead anyway. I, like you, am a bit suspect of that approach unless they have an iteratively improved design they've thoroughly tested and works well. Model Y would not be the time to introduce highly speculative experiments that haven't been thoroughly vetted.

There’s also no way around the fact that independent motors for the doors cost more, add weight, add complexity and increase the exposure to user accidents.

With 500,000 cars out with FWD, what are the odd of those doors hitting something overhead on a daily basis - pretty common.

A CUV without the ability to use the roof racks will make it a laughing stock.

Lastly, I am traumatized everytime I hear an unexpected beep around the X. I’m going to immediately duck or roll out of cover.

Death through decapitation or blunt force trauma via my own X is not how I want to go.

I love my X if course. It seats 7 and tows a cargo trailer with 21 pieces of luggage.

It’s just not a mass market vehicle.