TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Neroden - have you considered that your therapist could be Mr Fact Checker himself... He learnt everything he knows from you and you were paying him for it!

Funny -- but I actually have been talking only about other (non-investment-related) instances of the same "not doing their homework" phenomenon.

Neroden - you have been right about self driving for many a year. In our heart of hearts we grudgingly know that you are most likely right - just let us have our dream. We grew up with the Jetsons for christ sake - the future has been terribly disappointing so far...

OK.

At least we can all agree, we will all be rich and live in a better world, with or without autonomous!

I look forward to cars which will refuse to hit people (we can do that right now), and which don't spew fumes (we are doing that right now). Great improvements.

 

[neroden]

Yesterday, insideEVs published a teaser suggesting that Tesla might report October 2018 US deliveries "a wee bit shy" of doubling ALL EVs sold in the U.S. in October 2017.

I still don't know how InsideEVs gets their monthly Tesla delivery estimates. They seem fairly accurate, but does anyone know how they actually *do* it?

 

[Earlian]

Nice catch. TSLA and AMZN have been swinging somewhat in tandem this afternoon and inversely to AAPL. Some speculators may have been pulling some of their cash out of TSLA and AMZN to put into AAPL as a play before its earnings announcement.

Apple with a big beat. Hopefully we can ride that wave tomorrow!

Yeah, they're only down 4% in AH

Maybe there’s a chance some money flows back into TSLA?

I mean Apple having cash is nothing new. But TSLA becoming a cash monster has probably more upside to the hill over the next year....

 

[hobbes]

This is sold and not produced numbers. October "sales" to east coast doesn't "count" until November.

International produced in October doesn't "count" until December once customer takes delivery.

Cars produced in December count in December if they get delivered inside California / West Coast.

Also, Tesla most likely emptied their queue of cars in transit for the end of quarter, so have to refill them now. Still expecting FUD headlines from this.

 

[SpaceCash]

Maybe there’s a chance some money flows back into TSLA?

I mean Apple having cash is nothing new. But TSLA becoming a cash monster has probably more upside to the hill over the next year....

Not to mention TSLA disregards the rest of the market OFTEN

 

[X Fan]

I follow this stuff very closely. Your information is dated - like dated by decades. Just look at the TPP fiasco. Yes, teachers are still influential - but industrial workers have lost almost all influence compared to employers.

Geez, unions are less powerful in US but spend still commands influence within the Party, ie $167m in 2016 elections.

Granted, Teamsters has far less today but Teacher, Service, State/local Govt workers have more vs the past.

One of the benefits of being an independent that cares deeply re: the environment and conservation is that I just ignore the BS of both parties.

Anyway, sorry to disrupt the focus on stock price movement. Carry on....

 

[neroden]

Yeah it's highly misleading that they compare their "real world range" observations to WLTP for most brands, so most cars are ~10 - 20% short in the "real world", but then for Tesla they compare their real world results to NEDC results. Of course they get a larger difference since WLTP is more conservative. It's irresponsible journalism to use that result for the sensational headline that Tesla's fall shorter of range expectations than other brands.

Hmmmmm.... if they actually compared all the other cars to WLTP range and Tesla to NEDC range, then that may be stock manipulation and is certainly trade libel. Should be reported to a regulator.

 

[RobStark]

Is he always this unhappy?
I have only skimmed his "articles" on SA...can't get very far before I break down laughing.

Anton suffers from RBF.

Resting bitch face - Wikipedia

 

[Tslynk67]

What is CtW's TSLA position?

I have not heard of them before.

Total size fund is less relevant that how many shares they own.

I couldn't find that info either, so I suspect it's not much.

Last I heard, public companies operated as democracies based on votes = %age of shares.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Hmmmmm.... if they actually compared all the other cars to WLTP range and Tesla to NEDC range, then that may be stock manipulation and is certainly trade libel. Should be reported to a regulator.

On note of range, I hope tesla restates their model3 range with the increased regen just delivered

 

[MXWing]

Anton suffers from RBF.

Resting bitch face - Wikipedia

Yep. There’s Vader face for Vader and RBF for Anton.

 

[hobbes]

Translation:

"The numbers quoted by InsideEVs are incorrect, but bear in mind that Tesla makes cars for international and East Coast customers during the first half of the quarter."

The "but" in Elon´s reply doesn´t really make sense. I would have expected either "Numbers are not wrong, but bear in mind... (that´s why they are low)" or just "numbers are wrong". Most likely he missed a "not" in his effort to keep the response short. (Also strange that he used #´s instead of #s, I´d have bet he knew better... )

 

[Buckminster]

Hmmmmm.... if they actually compared all the other cars to WLTP range and Tesla to NEDC range, then that may be stock manipulation and is certainly trade libel. Should be reported to a regulator.

There is no regulating the brits - we will just have a vote and leave you!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yes, me. But only because it's actually available to order in the UK (unlike the Model 3). And because I got it on an 18 month lease deal for £400 /mo no deposit. A steal for a car of this price... I'll drive it thinking of the Tesla that will probably replace it.

Why would they give you such a deal?!? £7200 for 1,5 year, they’ll lose a lot of money on that lease. I thought this only happened with compliance cars in CA. But in the UK? It’s not like Jaguar are swimming in money, they lost a bundle in Q3. Do they have trouble selling iPaces already? I really don’t understand it.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hmm. Conclusion? Eva Green is still HOT!

Serafina...

 

[Driver Dave]

I couldn't find that info either, so I suspect it's not much.

Last I heard, public companies operated as democracies based on votes = %age of shares.

"The six investors own a combined 0.55% of Tesla’s shares outstanding, according to Mr. Waizenegger."

From:
Tesla Investor Group Calls for Board Overhaul, More Oversight of Elon Musk

 

[neroden]

The "but" in Elon´s reply doesn´t really make sense. I would have expected either "Numbers are not wrong, but bear in mind... (that´s why they are low)" or just "numbers are wrong". Most likely he missed a "not" in his effort to keep the response short. (Also strange that he used #´s instead of #s, I´d have bet he knew better... )

He means that the numbers for October are lower than September because of the geographical-allocation stuff, *but* that InsideEVs numbers are not actually accurate. (For instance, perhaps the correct number is closer to 19,000.)

 

[Tslynk67]

I still don't know how InsideEVs gets their monthly Tesla delivery estimates. They seem fairly accurate, but does anyone know how they actually *do* it?

 

[MXWing]

SA bears are slacking. I feel generous so will give them a thesis they can run with:

There is a plot twist to Elon’s tweet:

Inside EV overreported the numbers.

Actual numbers worse.

 

[Buckminster]

AAPL earnings call - and I thought the last Tesla call was boring...
They are no longer gonna advise how many of each product they have sold within the quarter. The analysts won't like that. Down another 1% to -6%.