TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Something about these colors makes me happy.

 

[Unpilot]

Think we will see the push right at the end to force the SP lower?

 

[wipster]

Just thinking of the military applications for somewhat-movable storage. Another market?

Hospitals after a natural disaster?

 

[KarenRei]

As soon as I saw the name "Megapack" leaked/rumored, my first thought was shipping crate sized powerpack. Rather than deploying several powerpacks and an inverter, and wiring them together and to the grid, they would be pre wired, self contained cooling and all, and they would simply wire the crate to the grid, and be done.

With some basic site prep for leveling and anchoring, you could probably have it up and running within hours of its arrival. The military should love these things.

I could imagine that the next big step would be a variant that comes with a self-deploying solar array. I wonder if it would be acceptable to transport operators for a customer to modify ISO containers so that they can be unhinged and fold open? Now just think of how awesome *that* would be. "Rome wasn't built in a day, but this gigantic solar power plant was." Panels could be on collapsible wings like you see on satellites / spacecraft, with a support pole at the end of each one and guy wires to hold them in place. If elevated enough and not too dense, they could function as partial shade cloth for crops grown beneath (some crops actually grow better in partial shade, and shade reduces water loss). That would so take over the world.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Make battery storage systems and STORE THEM IN A WAREHOUSE and wait for an emergency? really???

Rain fire on them while they're down really.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Model 3 production averaging 4,400 per week so far in Q4 (20,100 units). That's an increase from 4,300 in Q3. (unattributed src at Fremont via He Who Must Not Be Named)

 

[Fact Checking]

Chanos sounds like he's still short Tesla:

WallStCynic (a.k.a. Jim Chanos) on Twitter​

Good. I hope he follows this all the way to the end, throwing more good money after bad, until he's broke.

His latest argument doesn't even make much sense. Tesla used that 'entity' language for over a year now and from Q2 to Q3 it changed the following way:

"As of June 30, 2018, no entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance."

"As of September 30, 2018, one entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance."​

Since accounts receivable is at $1,155m, this means that they have one particular invoice that's at least $115m worth. My guess is that it's the outstanding invoice to a large energy storage installation. They had $400m of storage sales in this quarter, and one of them might be a larger customer.

I'd rate this as "good sign: Tesla is moving up the storage business food chain to higher value contracts", but I'm sure Chanos can see something sinister in it.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Exactly the thought. Stockpile them next to a port and you can have them wired into the grid anywhere in the world a few weeks later.

A 40-foot ISO container has 43,9 times the internal volume as a 100kWh powerpack. Now, with powerpacks, you also have to have power modules, not just energy modules, which argues for multiplying by less than 43,9 - but you'll also be able to use space more efficiently, and energy density will be growing. Let's just say 45x. So 4,5 MWh per container. A single cargo ship could carry tens of GWh. Equivalent to hundreds of the Australian battery farm.

Not bad at all.

I'm expecting a redundant but single dedicated cooling system for all modules (instead of each powerpack and inverter having it's own integrated cooling system). That saves even more volume for more cells.

For disaster relief, it would be interesting if they also had a solar panel container that has some kind of easy to deploy fold out structure (like folded panels with large tires/wheels on the bottom of the fold out structure so that it's easy to deploy quickly). Though you'd probably need quite a few of them to pair with a single Megapack ...

 

[KarenRei]

Make battery storage systems and STORE THEM IN A WAREHOUSE and wait for an emergency? really???

You think they'd only be for emergencies? There's huge growth in the demand for large batteries for grid storage. Tesla will always have some inventory on-hand, and the ability to redirect production to emergency needs where required.

 

[traxila]

As I stated previously, if the market stabilizes and does not go bear I can see TSLA emerging as a market leader and bellwether. They can start talking about the TANG stocks. Today’s action showing how this could play out.

 

[homer214]

I felt it was hurried, Elon didn't get a chance to talk like he did on Joe Rogan's. Also it felt scripted in a sense that she read off what she wanted to ask, and pushed subject matter that she wanted to push. But there was never a feeling it was a conversation. Complete different feeling comparing this to Joe Rogan's interview.

Anyways I listened for Elon, thought he did well.

It seemed like an interview with a real journalist with some interesting news bits along the way. Elon’s criticism of faux “journalists”/attack dogs early in the interview was unfortunate, though perhaps understandable. Otherwise, it was a good listen.

 

[Brando]

@Foghat - right on
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Recode Decode, hosted by Kara Swisher
just ad saleswomen - pathetic - regret I bothered to listen
condescending - so tired of her yes, so, right, etc... like she understands EVERYTHING Elon says while she obviously isn't even listening. [Elon couldn't even explain solar city roof tiles to her. pathetic]

[got to love her opening - "no smoking zone, put out the weed and listen" - just an ad selling narcissist working Recode Decode- I'll never bother to listen to this women again.
[got to love that company name - Madison Avenue at its best]

At least Joe Rogan tried to listen and tried to understand what Elon was saying.

 

[mongo]

Think we will see the push right at the end to force the SP lower?

Maybe, we are off max pain, so it's about a $6 million swing per 2.50 stock shift. (if I'm reading correctly). $345 would be their target, I think (still green).

I'm expecting a redundant but single dedicated cooling system for all modules (instead of each powerpack and inverter having it's own integrated cooling system). That saves even more volume for more cells.

Combined cooling would make the most sense, since the air based coolers wouldn't work well in an enclosed space.

The container would likely mass out before it cubes out (weight vs volume). When I ran the numbers on a Powerpack trailer charger, 3 MWh of PP (14 units) hit 50k pounds, but only 50% of the trailer floor space. Including 3 Inverters would get to the 60k lb max, with room (30%) to spare (for solar panels?). Combining the cooling systems would save weight.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

As soon as I saw the name "Megapack" leaked/rumored, my first thought was shipping crate sized powerpack.

If they use a shipping container form factor, the next step is to load a bunch of them into a cargo ship and connect them to the drive motor. You could even swap them out with a crane while in port.

Might as well put them on trains too.

 

[Brando]

The NN prophet has spoken. haha, joking aside totally agree. Hope to see the coast to coast as a solid proof of concept in 2019. Even once it's rolled out to customers will definitely be a US thing first then North America and later Europe. Every time I visit Europe and see the streets in cities I shake my head and think, "yaaa, maybe you guys get FSD two years after North America does."

walking/biking [and public transport] eliminate the need for FSD in Euro cities - eliminating cars in city centers is the obvious thing to do

 

[Fact Checking]

Ah, here's that ever-so-predictable FUD we were all waiting for from the 10-Q:

I've read them all, so that you guys don't have to!

Tesla's 10-Q Reveals Q3 May Not Have Been Profitable, After All

In that gem of a post Anton Wahlman makes the following fantastic argument:

"In the 10-Q, Tesla now reveals that one entity constitutes 10% or more of its accounts receivable balance."

"Not even a Saudi Prince buys 1,500 Teslas, so did Tesla sell them to a rental car agency (Enterprise) without disclosing it?"​

Firstly, 10%+ of accounts receivable is $115m+. If only Tesla had other business segments than cars. Like storage products that it sold $400m worth of in Q3 alone?

Energy generation and storage           $399,317,000

... with a single large utility with a larger than $115m order? Impossible, it must be cars!!

Also, the question asked in the headline has no logical connection to the article itself, so we are left to guess whether Tesla had indeed made more than $300m in profits!

A Closer Look At Tesla Q3 Margins

Here 'jaberwock', in a hilariously long article manages to hyperventilate over supposed lack of demand decreasing Model 3 ASPs any quarter now, while not mentioning even once that:

• Europe has a sedan market twice the size of the U.S. sedan market where Tesla already sold over 6 billion dollars worth of Model 3's,
• and that the Model 3 is cash-only payment at the moment and not even offered with a lease yet - while ~80% of the new car sales are financed.
• Small details like that it's illegal for Tesla to even sell cars in half of the U.S. states while Europe generally doesn't have such car dealership protectionist legislation also eludes our genius of a Seeking Losses Alpha author.

So that purported 'closer look' at Tesla margins and demand managed to miss some of the most trivial, most obvious upsides to Tesla demand - while the article ends with a disclaimer that is a surprise to absolutely no-one:

jaberwock: "Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA."​

Tesla Can't Get Its Story Straight

In this article "Bill Maurer" manages to miss several things about Tesla:

• He somehow believes that Tesla's past disclosures that they want to smooth their delivery flow must absolutely be applied to start of quarter production as well. I'm sure he'd prefer if Tesla had 20,000 undelivered cars at the end of each quarter for the sake of ... "smoothness", tying up cash in finished goods inventory?
• Much of the rest of his article is trying to hold Tesla responsible for not being a perfect predictor of future order flow.

He begrudgingly admits it in an update on the 3rd page of the article (that I might have been the only reader to ever reach) that half of his article was based on a false premise:

"***UPDATE: We’ve just received word that Tesla was overwhelmed by orders on this final day and, as such, has removed the October 15 deadline for the guarantee of the full tax credit notice from its website. This seems to indicate that Tesla has enough U.S. orders in now for the remainder of the year."​

So Tesla was totally sold out at the beginning of Q4 already?? Imminent bankwuptcy, bankwuptcy - erm I mean positive cash flow ...!!!

TL;DR: The bears/shorts on Seeking Alpha are disappointing me - is this really the best they can give?

 

[skybluecgreen]

I'll have to disagree with this. While the interview was firm, Kara Swisher simply asks tough questions and doesn't let the subjects get away with s..t. She's probably known Elon for over a decade at this point (probably even back to Paypal days) and interviewed him several times over the past decade. She's VERY well connected here in the valley and other silicon coasts, knows simply everyone and gets scoops directly from them and everyone else for that matter.

And recode is a significant operation in the space, so no worries that the participants in their conferences and podcasts are going anywhere.

She answers 'right' or 'uh huh' to everything he says as if she is saying 'I know that' or 'so'? I thought she was arrogant and annoying. Elon told her she was not listening to him and I agree.

 

[Nocturnal]

Hospitals after a natural disaster?

Literally countless applications. Construction sites come to mind. No more inefficient, dirty, dangerous generators. Sooner or later those will replace peak demand gas turbines that utility companies fire up to handle peak usage.

 

[Foghat]

Maybe, we are off max pain, so it's about a $6 million swing per 2.50 stock shift. (if I'm reading correctly). $345 would be their target, I think (still green).


Combined cooling would make the most sense, since the air based coolers wouldn't work well in an enclosed space.

The container would likely mass out before it cubes out (weight vs volume). When I ran the numbers on a Powerpack trailer charger, 3 MWh of PP (14 units) hit 50k pounds, but only 50% of the trailer floor space. Including 3 Inverters would get to the 60k lb max, with room (30%) to spare (for solar panels?). Combining the cooling systems would save weight.

Did you catch from his interview that he is using model 3 chassis as train cars in boring company operations?

 

[Cobbler]

Nobody thinks that the SEC will further prosecute the missed projections of M3 production in 2017? They've found 15 witnesses (former employees) who will testify in court that Tesla was aware that they couldn't hit their targets.
I think we'll see a new major dump of shares when the SEC holds a press conference to announce that they'll continue to sue the board for misleading investors (the same with the 'funding secured' tweet). Timing wise when SP nears $360.
Chanos is too confident in his latest statements about his short position in $TSLA.
I simply don't trust it. He'll make money of this