TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

dang i was so close to buying more at $330 this morning. oh well. maybe the next FUD article will push it to $325 for an hour before recovering.

 

[X Fan]

Yeah, so that framing by the WSJ is actually pretty close to propagating lies/falsehoods actively, the WSJ is again coming very close to attempted illegal market manipulation:

• The ZEV claim is bogus: Tesla only sold ~$52m of ZEV credits in Q3, lower than expectations. Their GHG credits went up with unit count going up - as it does for absolutely every other car maker that is selling EVs.
  
• The warranty claim is bogus: Tesla actually increased their warranty reserves by $187m in Q3, they almost doubled their warranty reserves from the year before, from $3688m to $644m. Per car provisions are down, but warranty expenses were coming down in Q2 already - I did some quarterly statement data mining here, FWIIW. It's also a common-sense dynamic: early Model 3 batches needed more rework, as they increased the unit count their quality metrics improved and they don't have to reserve as much for Model 3 warranty repairs anymore.

So if you read between the lines the WSJ is actually indirectly bullish about Tesla, without admitting it.

CNBC is another site that prints constant FUD. Today’s junk: Tesla, Facebook and 3 others are the most undemocratic stocks on Wall Street

 

[Pezpunk]

since when are corporations supposed to be democracies?

 

[KarenRei]

Firstly, 'not customer' is misleading: the 'entity' language was introduced in Q4/2017, i.e. has been there for almost a year - it covers both customers and other corporate entities Tesla does business with.

Secondly, if the fact that Tesla is owed more money than before and they still managed to generate 1.3 billion dollars in cash from operations is the worst shorts can find in the Q3 10-Q then that's actually very bullish: praise by omission.

I'd also like to note the sudden ironic switch of shorts being very worried about Tesla not as a debtor, but as a creditor!

That statement seems incredibly obvious to me: Tesla Energy's business is overwhelmingly large customers. 10% of AR would be less than 30% of Tesla Energy's revenue this quarter.

 

[Alphacrux]

So if you read between the lines the WSJ is actually indirectly bullish about Tesla, without admitting it.

Yeah, it’s the most “positive” article I’ve seen in the WSJ yet (which isn’t a compliment to WSJ journalism).

Of course the comments are the worst part. The usual trolls. And probably new trolls.

 

[Fact Checking]

CNBC is another site that prints constant FUD. Today’s junk: Tesla, Facebook and 3 others are the most undemocratic stocks on Wall Street

LOL, so has CNBC been taken over by communists, asking for the nationalization of these undemocratic co-called "corporations" owned by those who spent money to purchase the stock and directed by a CEO ... voted on by shareholders?

 

[KarenRei]

One semi-tanker can haul ~9,000 gallons.
Eliminate lawns, and the average household needs <70 gallons per person per day.
10,000 people would have a daily usage of 700k gallons or ~80 tankers per day IF water is not recycled.
Add in water recycling, and the new water introduction requirements are much much less. Can build new construction with potable, and non-potable (clothes washing ,toilets) supplies if needed. Along with separate waste streams, black vs grey water.

ISS has water recycling, BFS and Mars will need recycling, no reason GF1 can't set that up...
Some info (seems slightly dated)
Water Recycling and Reuse | Region 9: Water | US EPA

Agree wholeheartedly. Does anyone think Tesla wouldn't pay 2 times, 3 times, 5 times, even 10 times normal water rates if it wouldn't keep them growing? Of course they would. So they'll truck it in, or they'll pay to install gray water recycling systems, or they'll desalinate brackish water, or any of dozens of other things.

It's sort of like how all you often hear people speculating that water right access will prevent the oil industry form developing in X location. It never does. Because I've got news for all of those people, the oil industry can always afford to pay more for water than you can, and they'll always find a person who will take their money.

 

[KarenRei]

LOL, so has CNBC been taken over by communists, asking for the nationalization of these undemocratic co-called "corporations" owned by those who spent money to purchase the stock and directed by a CEO ... voted on by shareholders?

Meanwhile in the real world, Tesla is the only major automaker in the US (possibly the whole world?) that provides all of its employees with stock options (aka voting rights), and has a very flat management structure.

 

[ggr]

I have to say, having used NoAP now for about 500-with purpose driven miles, I have not really seen any of the negatives that the poster in that thread is highlighting, even though I have seen ALL of the SCENARIOS they comment on. Additionally, in some of the examples the poster highlights, I've actually seen the opposite more POSITIVE and intuitive response from the AP system on NoAP. I don't have the time today to comment there, but i'll certainly be doing it. The ONE area where I'll agree the car is clearly less capable than a driver is coming to an OFF ramp and decelerating while coming into the curve of an off ramp. The car really wants to go slower than any driver would otherwise go, and that is a clear negative - especially if the rear brake lights aren't being illuminated. I'm sure after Tesla gets their target 10M miles of active drivers data and gets to crunching it, this will improve quickly.

Off topic for this thread but I just completed a long drive on NoAP, and at least one thing @wk057 says is correct. If I try to do a lane change while someone is beside me, it warns and refuses. But if it suggests a lane change and I confirm while someone is beside me, it starts to do it.

Edit: except for those two overrides, it drove perfectly on three freeways for about 30 miles.

 

[AZRI11]

LOL, so has CNBC been taken over by communists, asking for the nationalization of these undemocratic co-called "corporations" owned by those who spent money to purchase the stock and directed by a CEO ... voted on by shareholders?

The new head of CNBC

 

[Fact Checking]

Yeah, it’s the most “positive” article I’ve seen in the WSJ yet (which isn’t a compliment to WSJ journalism).

Yeah, I suspect Charley Grant deleted 10 interim drafts of that WSJ article - he just couldn't stomach writing "Tesla" and "profitable" in the same sentence, without the obligatory "will never be" between those words!!!

Must have been the most difficult article of his career to write.

 

[ZeApelido]

Ahaha, Lake Tahoe already provides about 75 percent of the water supply for the Reno-Sparks area. Good luck trying to get water rights outside existing communities.

It's not a engineering issue; its a resource allocation issue, and that means politics. And that means a long slow fight. Faster to build production elsewhere.

Lake Tahoe Water Wars, Unending--Part 2 of 2 | Tahoetopia

I was being sarcastic. Agree water rights has historically been a huge issue out west.

"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown"

 

[Mobius484]

I was way off, took a beating. Congrats to all of you bulls on a great 3Q.

With that said, the Q3 report had a lot of interesting things in it. The AR spike is the oddest of all because the banking reason doesnt hold water.

Also the strange disclosure of 10% of AR is due from 1 entity (not customer).

Tesla energy

My observation is that any $15 move in the morning, in either direction, will be mostly reversed in the afternoon (in the absence of news). It's tempting to get into trading, cashing in on this phenomena.

My thought exactly...

That statement seems incredibly obvious to me: Tesla Energy's business is overwhelmingly large customers. 10% of AR would be less than 30% of Tesla Energy's revenue this quarter.

Exactly!

 

[mekberg]

lololol

Can't wait to see how this plays out.

Here's How We Short Tesla And Still Sleep Soundly - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[tivoboy]

But if it suggests a lane change and I confirm while someone is beside me, it starts to do it.

I've actually experienced that scenario, but didn't have that experience. The M3 waited till the car to my left passed and then slotted in behind them to complete the left lane change. I would have probably just tapped the go pedal a bit to scoot in in front of them though. I was on the mode just BELOW MadMax. I purposely forced the left lane confirmation exactly when the car was just passing my rear bumper to see what the car would do. It did take a while for that scenario to present itself, so I purposely increased my desired TAXX speed as I was coming up on another car. Could be a different in calibration (but it shouldn't be), could be the road travelled or overall speed. Unsure.

 

[mongo]

lololol

Can't wait to see how this plays out.

Here's How We Short Tesla And Still Sleep Soundly - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Didn't click on SA link, so I'll just guess...
Ambien?

 

[dondy]

If you are not being sarcastic- it's so far away from the truth.

Actually I am not. If he was not he would ignore any and all "established" media platforms anyhow associated with the Wall Street. This last "postcad booth" included. They don't report news and actually don't service Tesla's clients.
He would also ignore and not defend any clueless attacks, because any reaction just leads to another round of FUD.
if he wasn't clueless he would separate his personal and Tesla "info"account and relate all questions and suggestions there and answer them (if he wants personally) under "Tesla's service" umbrella. But his taking credits and using his name is too important for him.

If he wasn't media clueless he would never even think about negative remarks about media in general,
If he wasn't media clueless he would act exclusively or through official channels or attacking specific journalists only (still better to leave it to anonymous lawyers). The journalist crowd is very dense, and even current ideological "enemies" know and protect each other. You won't find any serious report on any obvious lie or misreporting by established journalist. Think good why.

. While I fully support (because I understand it's importance) his use of the twitter, one has to be blind not to see collaterals.
What is also telling that because he doesn't use anything beside reddit and twitter he is clueless about general information streams and how they work. If he wasn't he would use much more of youtube and Tesla would make clips of SpaceX fame.
It is only now in 2018 he tries to change his habits with Twitter after numerous naggings by his still existing friends and SEC suit.

 

[EVNow]

since when are corporations supposed to be democracies?

How about getting US to be democratic for a start ?

 

[mongo]

Off topic for this thread but I just completed a long drive on NoAP, and at least one thing @wk057 says is correct. If I try to do a lane change while someone is beside me, it warns and refuses. But if it suggests a lane change and I confirm while someone is beside me, it starts to do it.

It would be interesting to find out if it is going to fully merge into the other car, or if it is just asserting its presence. In some merge cases, you do need to force yourself in...

 

[mekberg]

Didn't click on SA link, so I'll just guess...
Ambien?

"pairing a short with call options" aka "I enjoy dying a slow, painful death."