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Since journalism, as we know it, is dead - a good reason to install Pi-hole®: A black hole for Internet advertisements
Your daily Seeking Alpha Rundown:
Here's How We Short Tesla And Still Sleep Soundly
Summary: Don't worry, we all know that Tesla is going down eventually. Buy calls to deal with the risk and then ignore the volatility. And the cognitive dissonance about the fact that you're also going long on Tesla.
Quote: "Because we agree with Jim Chanos and Mark Spiegel. Tesla could be one of those once-in-a-lifetime shorts. When we typically short, we are looking for a move down between 10 and 20 percent. Not so with Tesla, our largest short position. We expect to wake up one day with Tesla stock down $30, headed to down $150, and who knows from there."
Tesla, Dieselgate, And The Future
Summary: EVs are a government-promoted scam because you can sequester carbon more cheaply by other means, and I don't understand the concept that subsidies exist to kickstart an industry so it can sustain itself. Solar City was a fleecing fraud. Don't switch to clean energy, just go vegan. It'll fix any problems you have with your genitals as well, and yes, I'm actually talking about Viagra in a Seeking Alpha article.
Quote: "The absurd dream of an integrated renewable energy company is quickly coming to an end. From a societal standpoint, it was always more make-believe than real solution anyway"
Here's How We Short Tesla And Still Sleep Soundly
Summary: Don't worry, we all know that Tesla is going down eventually. Buy calls to deal with the risk and then ignore the volatility. And the cognitive dissonance about the fact that you're also going long on Tesla.
Quote: "Because we agree with Jim Chanos and Mark Spiegel. Tesla could be one of those once-in-a-lifetime shorts. When we typically short, we are looking for a move down between 10 and 20 percent. Not so with Tesla, our largest short position. We expect to wake up one day with Tesla stock down $30, headed to down $150, and who knows from there."
Tesla, Dieselgate, And The Future
Summary: EVs are a government-promoted scam because you can sequester carbon more cheaply by other means, and I don't understand the concept that subsidies exist to kickstart an industry so it can sustain itself. Solar City was a fleecing fraud. Don't switch to clean energy, just go vegan. It'll fix any problems you have with your genitals as well, and yes, I'm actually talking about Viagra in a Seeking Alpha article.
Quote: "The absurd dream of an integrated renewable energy company is quickly coming to an end. From a societal standpoint, it was always more make-believe than real solution anyway"
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Welps, have just been given a good view (or maybe a long is trolling SA and the shorts at the same time?) into how a logical short can deal with a rising TSLA (using ITM/NTM call options to hedge against their short position): Here's How We Short Tesla And Still Sleep Soundly - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Also of interest is the mutual opinion that TSLA price movements are predominantly driven by traders (even the MMD could be done by the traders to generate volatility):
"While the average S&P 500 stock turns its shareholder base over every 200 days or so, Tesla (which is not in the S&P 500, but with a market cap far larger than most S&P members) does it in about 20. That’s unprecedented in public markets and it means the stock is dominated by day trading technicians. This makes for an extremely volatile brew."
I think the short interest will take a very long time to wind down along with a steady climb in the SP (in fits and spurts following earnings calls or announcements, followed by settling to higher lows during quiet periods). These would be near perfect conditions for selling covered OTM calls or OTM puts.
Know thine enemy.
Also of interest is the mutual opinion that TSLA price movements are predominantly driven by traders (even the MMD could be done by the traders to generate volatility):
"While the average S&P 500 stock turns its shareholder base over every 200 days or so, Tesla (which is not in the S&P 500, but with a market cap far larger than most S&P members) does it in about 20. That’s unprecedented in public markets and it means the stock is dominated by day trading technicians. This makes for an extremely volatile brew."
I think the short interest will take a very long time to wind down along with a steady climb in the SP (in fits and spurts following earnings calls or announcements, followed by settling to higher lows during quiet periods). These would be near perfect conditions for selling covered OTM calls or OTM puts.
Know thine enemy.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
That’s straight from Twitter trolls, shocked & outraged that regulatory credits are increasing at the same rate sales are increasing. They couldn’t come up with a stupider argument if they tried. Maybe a crazier one, but not a stupider one.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Wow, he suggests making TSLA short positions profitable by ... buying call options (i.e. going long - I kid you not), and he is also warning:
"Using call options to supplement short positions requires a certain mentality. You have to be capable of some cognitive dissonance and thereby allow yourself to use a bullish position to fortify your bearish overall investment."
Firstly, for the average Tesla short that shouldn't be a problem at all: shorting Tesla after the Q3 earnings report has to come with a healthy dose of denial of reality and has to result in significant cognitive dissonance.
Secondly, he does not seem to be realizing that by riding waves of volatility up with call options he's effectively closing his short position temporarily or is even effectively going long TSLA. Yeah, realizing that would cause another healthy dose of "cognitive dissonance".
BTW., he doesn't actually offer any rational reasons for why he is short Tesla, other than "it's overvalued" and that he agrees with Mark Spiegel - where he appears to have missed the fact that Mark Spiegel first suggested shorting Tesla at $170 price levels...
Also, this disclaimer:
"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA."
Is not actually true: if he really does what he recommended in the article then he's actually running a long-short investment strategy on Tesla. Does anyone here with a SA account want to point this out in the comments? I'm curious what kind of hilarious replies such a comment would get.
Is this the beginning of a new trend: shorts will go long Tesla like "Andrew Left", but will still pretend that they are short Tesla? What's their next investment advice: "Buy $TSLA to bankrupt Tesla through an exodus of employees who will go into early retirement as millionaires!!!"?
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Were I holding, I might be looking at the weekly (this week) 350$ calls to sell at about $6.5-7$. nice ~2% premium for a short skim of some premium.
Wow, he suggests making TSLA short positions profitable with call options and warns:
"Using call options to supplement short positions requires a certain mentality. You have to be capable of some cognitive dissonance and thereby allow yourself to use a bullish position to fortify your bearish overall investment."
Firstly, for the average Tesla short that shouldn't be a problem at all: shorting Tesla after the Q3 earnings report has to come with a healthy dose of denial of reality and has to result in significant cognitive dissonance.
Secondly, he does not seem to be realizing that by riding waves of volatility up with call options he's effectively closing his short position temporarily or is even effectively going long TSLA. Yeah, realizing that would cause another healthy dose of "cognitive dissonance".
BTW., he doesn't actually offer any rational reasons for why he is short Tesla, other than "it's overvalued" and that he agrees with Mark Spiegel - where he appears to have missed the fact that Mark Spiegel first suggested shorting Tesla at $170 price levels...
Also, this disclaimer:
"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA."
Is not actually true: if he really does what he recommended in the article then he's actually running a long-short investment strategy on Tesla. Does anyone here with a SA account want to point this out in the comments? I'm curious what kind of hilarious replies such a comment would get.
Is this the beginning of a new trend: shorts will go long Tesla like "Andrew Left", but will still pretend that they are short Tesla? What's their next investment advice: "Buy $TSLA to bankrupt Tesla through an exodus of employees who go into early retirement as millionaires"?
Sounds like some serious short kool aid to me....
Pezpunk
Active Member
hahha. "how do we stay solvent shorting Tesla? we go long Tesla."
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Did they not notice that Tesla are now making cars at above break even level, and ramping higher still, basically printing money? I really thought that the Q3 report would be sufficient to teach the concept of fixed and variable costs, but it appears these shorts may need another lesson, one with the subtlety of a sledge hammer. Oh well, February not that far.
Tesla patent addresses panel gaps using clever clamping assembly
Uh, oh, does that mean No more panel gaps ?
What will the bears complain about ?
Uh, oh, does that mean No more panel gaps ?
What will the bears complain about ?
larmor
Active Member
Didn't you hear- Tesla will burn all that cash to generate energy....
Wow, he suggests making TSLA short positions profitable by ... buying call options (i.e. going long - I kid you not), and he is also warning:
"Using call options to supplement short positions requires a certain mentality. You have to be capable of some cognitive dissonance and thereby allow yourself to use a bullish position to fortify your bearish overall investment."
Firstly, for the average Tesla short that shouldn't be a problem at all: shorting Tesla after the Q3 earnings report has to come with a healthy dose of denial of reality and has to result in significant cognitive dissonance.
Secondly, he does not seem to be realizing that by riding waves of volatility up with call options he's effectively closing his short position temporarily or is even effectively going long TSLA. Yeah, realizing that would cause another healthy dose of "cognitive dissonance".
BTW., he doesn't actually offer any rational reasons for why he is short Tesla, other than "it's overvalued" and that he agrees with Mark Spiegel - where he appears to have missed the fact that Mark Spiegel first suggested shorting Tesla at $170 price levels...
Also, this disclaimer:
"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA."
Is not actually true: if he really does what he recommended in the article then he's actually running a long-short investment strategy on Tesla. Does anyone here with a SA account want to point this out in the comments? I'm curious what kind of hilarious replies such a comment would get.
Is this the beginning of a new trend: shorts will go long Tesla like "Andrew Left", but will still pretend that they are short Tesla? What's their next investment advice: "Buy $TSLA to bankrupt Tesla through an exodus of employees who will go into early retirement as millionaires!!!"?
The cost to borrow TSLA shares to short is so low now, that it's actually a viable hedge. Not saying that it's a better idea than simply going long TSLA. Someone earlier described it best as a way to lose money slowly with the hope of making a profit on a surprise downturn.
If you are an investment manager and short on Telsa, at this point you have three options right?
1. Admit you were wrong and go long.
2. Claim that you are still right to be short, knowing you are wrong, and try to keep your job for as long a possible before you get fired for losing too much money. (and maybe praying or a miracle)
3. Convince yourself that being short is still the smart play.
Of course that #2 guy is going to keep up the same argument. If he stopped he would be admitting that he was wrong and would accelerate his own departure.
1. Admit you were wrong and go long.
2. Claim that you are still right to be short, knowing you are wrong, and try to keep your job for as long a possible before you get fired for losing too much money. (and maybe praying or a miracle)
3. Convince yourself that being short is still the smart play.
Of course that #2 guy is going to keep up the same argument. If he stopped he would be admitting that he was wrong and would accelerate his own departure.
Wow. That's econ 101 right there. You can argue that we shouldn't do that, but to say you don't understand the concept.... Who the heck pays this guy?
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N5329K
Active Member
Milk of Amnesia would be very useful for shorts.
Robin
So, funny enough I'm actually planning some tests with some ex car colleagues. We're just trying to figure out the place and the time. One of the things I want to test/view the execution of is what happens when I'm in AP and a car to my right or left is tracking along with my speed in front just in front of the bumper or a bit farther in front and they DRIFT over into my lane. What does the car do while in AP? What if there is ALSO ANOTHER car to my other side - essentially blocking the path AWAY from the car that is drifting into my lane. I'd like to try this from the direct side of my car and at the front offset to my car.
Of course, we're trying to find a place and time where the overall traffic is low (we'll be driving all three cars and on a three-way conference call and are all VERY good drivers, but I'd like to do it where there are little to NO other factors to introduce.
Good catch, my Googling wasn't water specific, 9,000 gallon capacity is not achievable with water. At 5,250 gallons per semi,
Edit: I'm the one who is screwing up units. 700k gallons a day..
Train cars can haul 23,000 gallons (198,000 lb load limit), so
Any place with close rail service could be a water source.
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Esme Es Mejor
Member
Some quick thoughts about the truck Elon talked about in the Recode podcast:
1. I don’t see where Tesla would get the batteries for a high-volume truck in the next few years. 3 & Y should soak up most of GF1’s production, with Semi, Roadster, and TE using any spare capacity. As such, Tesla’s first Pickup almost has to be high-price, high margin, low volume.
2. As a low volume project, it can’t command a lot of CapEx. It should be able to share batteries & motors with 3/Y/Semi. It also needs to share production space— either with the S/X production line, or with the Semi production line.
3. I have no idea if it’s technically feasible, but I’d love to see it made on the S/X line. It looks like the line can produce 30k vehicles per quarter (120k/year) but Tesla is 18650 battery limited to ~100k per year. If Tesla could produce 20k/year Crazy CyberPunk Trucks (using 2170 batteries) on the S/X line, they’d more fully utilize their production capacity & increase margins on all three vehicles.
1. I don’t see where Tesla would get the batteries for a high-volume truck in the next few years. 3 & Y should soak up most of GF1’s production, with Semi, Roadster, and TE using any spare capacity. As such, Tesla’s first Pickup almost has to be high-price, high margin, low volume.
2. As a low volume project, it can’t command a lot of CapEx. It should be able to share batteries & motors with 3/Y/Semi. It also needs to share production space— either with the S/X production line, or with the Semi production line.
3. I have no idea if it’s technically feasible, but I’d love to see it made on the S/X line. It looks like the line can produce 30k vehicles per quarter (120k/year) but Tesla is 18650 battery limited to ~100k per year. If Tesla could produce 20k/year Crazy CyberPunk Trucks (using 2170 batteries) on the S/X line, they’d more fully utilize their production capacity & increase margins on all three vehicles.
copyhacker
Member
It's good to have TeslaMondo back today:
https://teslamondo.com/2018/11/05/pardon-that-brief-intermission/
The list of bear talking points is especially delicious.
https://teslamondo.com/2018/11/05/pardon-that-brief-intermission/
The list of bear talking points is especially delicious.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Invent the water? ALL the water in NV is spoken for already.
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