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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I see now, the threat is a continuing hung parliament. In Australia when that happens, and there's no way to deal around it, the Queen's representative dismisses the government and we have a fresh election. Happened once in 1975.
1975 Australian constitutional crisis - Wikipedia
Hmmm - No.

In US, the president is directly elected. In tomorrow's election, the president is not going to change (alas).

Only some members of the upper chamber (Senate) and all the members of the lower chamber (House) are up for election. Currently Republicans control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. That allows them to pass most of the legislation they want (with a lot of caveats). The polling suggests Democrats have some 85% chance of getting the majority in the House. Senate, though, similarly has a 85% chance of remaining Republican. This creates a "divided government" i.e. President is from one party (Republican) and the House is with the Democrats. Markets like that.
 
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Yes, rich bankers also like to get tax cuts... but they aren't getting any more, regardless. There's nothing left to cut. I mean, you could blow an even bigger hole in the federal budget during a boom where the Fed is already raising rates... but at that point the Wall Streeters are gonna start worrying about inflation (which in fact they already are).
If you think Republicans won't again try to cut taxes, you are being naïve. Already Trump is talking about "middle class tax cuts" - that has always been code for crumbs for the middle class rest for the upper class.

They don't care about deficits or even inflation. Yes, they don't want central bank increase interest rates (which makes sense) - but that's only part of the equation.
 
OT, but the Elon crypto scammers are expanding: Twitter accounts hacked in Elon Musk scam

Twitter seriously needs to do something about this...
Mannnn if one falls for the tweets posted in that link... One basically deserves to lose their btc. And their twitter loicense

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As was somewhat logical given the push to deliver cars and the mere fact that Q3 ended on a Sunday, one of Tesla's partner banks hadn't quite delivered all the cash for cars that had been financed and sold in the last days of Q3.

Nice find!

Checks written by customers on Friday and Saturday probably didn't clear in time to be booked as cash flow (most checks in the U.S. are T+1 settled I think) - so those increased Accounts Receivable.

10%+ of AR is $115m+, and this is probably just the largest bank Tesla is working with for California deliveries (Chase or BofA?). There are possibly other banks as well, so the cash held up by a Saturday end of quarter was possibly even higher.

I.e. even this detail from the 10-Q is a positive development for Tesla: no meaningful credit risk from these large banks and it should be a nice chunk of cash inflow that helps Q4, which quarter is going to end on a Monday.
 
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Market traders are currently terrified by Trump's wildly erratic behavior, especially the randomized tarriffs, randomized sanctions, and frankly, the Presidential hints that he'll treat people better if they divert business to Trump-owned companies.

The Republicans are basically rolling over and doing absolutely anything Trump asks, even when he's acting nuts. If the Republicans retain the House, the market will crash.

Market traders would probably like some nice, stable government gridlock / checks-and-balances right now. The expected outcome would probably be the one the market liked best.

Markets often like governmental gridlock because it is highly predictable.
Republicans retain House and Senate, markets will rise. Less regulation and possibly more tax cuts...
 
Last weekend there was well over a hundred posts relating to the Tesla pick-up truck. Interestingly not one post Monday on the topic. Is it possible the decision to go with a "Blade Runnerish" punk design targeting the highest-end F series was partly responsible for the drop on Monday? I think it's the right move to start, however a lot of negative feedback that Tesla is not targeting the F-150 volume leader first. Curious. Ford ended up 1.6% Monday. O'K, it's not weekend overtime. Enough about pick-up trucks. Carry onwards and upwards.
 
This is all wildly more expensive than buying vacant land in Buffalo (you have probably never looked at how cheap it is

It's not just about "buying any land". $10k/acre near-Buffalo farmland (enough to buy water rights for a whole town in Nevada to match the land Tesla has bought in Sparks, but I digress) isn't equipped for building a factory, as if it's some sort of zoned, utility-connected industrial park.

and not having to build your own housing development (which is actually pretty expensive)

The cheapest solar farm in Nevada (solar farms = generally well cheaper than rooftop solar) is $2,3/W. Tesla Solar has never hit these prices. GW1 (pre-expansion-plans) was to consume 70MW. So at the cheapest Nevada solar farm prices and pre-expansion energy consumption figures, that's $161M. Now we pull up PVWatts. A flat-roof solar array in Sparks receives 2,55 kWh/m² in December, while in Buffalo it receives 1,10 kWh/m², or 43% as much. And that's assuming that your array isn't covered in lake-effect snow. So at our minimal prices, with minimal power demands, and always-clean solar panels, the power cost premium for Buffalo vs. Sparks is $212M. A fifth of a billion dollars.

Of course, even this pales in comparison to other issues like the supply chain advantages of being unified into fewer facilities, being closer to Fremont, of tax incentives ($1,3B in Nevada; I guarantee you, after the GF2 hiring debacle, New York is in no rush to be giving any more good deals to Tesla), etc.

Good luck with that. I suggest you try it. This is one of those times I know you're not from the US, because you've never looked into the politics of buying out farmland or water rights.

1) Check what you "know". I grew up in the US.

2) Living in the US does not somehow make you an expert on water rights. What's next, Sarah Palin is a Russia expert because Alaska is near Russia?

Rather than writing this post, you could simply have looked up how water rights on the Truckee River work:

Water Rights | Truckee Meadows Water Authority

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How is water acquired for new projects?

Any time someone wants to build a house, subdivision or business, they must dedicate water rights to TMWA to meet all the water needs of the project. Most of the water rights used this way have been purchased on the open market. When people who own water rights decide not to use them any longer, they can sell them to TMWA, developers and other parties. Most of these unused water rights are agricultural irrigation rights. TMWA converts agricultural water rights to municipal water rights to serve new projects.

There is no such thing as new Truckee River water rights to service development because additional water cannot be diverted from the river or pumped from underground aquifers. So, when unused water rights are presented to TMWA to service new homes or businesses, it is the same amount of water that is already allowed to be diverted. It is simply transferred from agricultural use to municipal use. Groundwater rights (wells) are treated in the same way.

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I'll repeat: Tesla needs to do nothing more than buy up some of the existing farms on the Truckee River (or at least their water rights). Or any of the dozen other means for getting water that I laid out, most of which you completely ignored.

But hey, let's ignore all that! Let's go back to your very first notion, the incredulity of shipping in water from other places. Obviously, "over the rockies" is not the nearest place with surplus water; that would be northeastern California and parts of southern Oregon. Given that aqueducts provide water all the way from inland California so cheaply to the coast that it's used for farming (remember, farms buy water by the acre foot), and do so far cheaper than desalination (which as you'll recall costs $2,50 to $5,00 per thousand gallons - from seawater, not from only-somewhat-brackish water like Pyramid Lake), obviously this is not by any means a prohibitive cost.
 
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