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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Earnings Revisions

With the 30 September quarter earnings of $ 2.90 per share , revision must start to flow

Not before they load on shares.


Edit: In that regard - Option_Sniper on Twitter
$tsla tons big $$ buying these days. very obvious price actions. doesn't matter how it fluctuates in a week or two - it WILL go up big again.
 
Mannnn if one falls for the tweets posted in that link... One basically deserves to lose their btc. And their twitter loicense

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Bitcoic? suppoot? Come on Twits. These aren't even typos. C & T and O & R are on opposite sides of the keyboard. Everyone knows Elon can spell. Why would this create 492 loves? :eek:
Idiot fishing off the railway bridge ?
Yes, in the sense of fishing for idiots, as per the helpful link to Microsoft re: Nigerian scams filtering out false positives:
 
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I've been looking around TMC (and I admit maybe I'm just to stupid to find it...), but is there a one-page summary or something like that here that gives all the rational reasons for investing in Tesla? For a first-time $TSLA investor.

My wife is getting some cash freed-up, and I'm trying to convince her to put it in $TSLA....but she doesn't have the time to read through this forum etc. and I would prefer to give her a neutral view (or as neutral as we can be here on TMC), as oppose to my fan-boy slanted view...

The Hyperchange YouTube videos are good. To conclude that the stock is undervalued you have to first accept that Tesla are consistently misreported in the mainstream media. There are several reasons for this, but a strong one is that ICE automakers advertise while Tesla do not. The media look after their sponsors, and regurgitate the 'short thesis'. Hyperchange busts the short thesis open so you can invest, knowing that you know more than the shorts do.
 
I've been looking around TMC (and I admit maybe I'm just to stupid to find it...), but is there a one-page summary or something like that here that gives all the rational reasons for investing in Tesla? For a first-time $TSLA investor.

My wife is getting some cash freed-up, and I'm trying to convince her to put it in $TSLA....but she doesn't have the time to read through this forum etc. and I would prefer to give her a neutral view (or as neutral as we can be here on TMC), as oppose to my fan-boy slanted view...

Some fairly convincing arguments can be found by looking at the reasons short-sellers have given for becoming long after the Q3 report. Citron, for example.
 
Anecdotal but I don’t care: just got back from Romania, a truly corrupt government keeping its people poor. On my taxi ride from the airport, the early 30’s driver and I had a broken Romanglish conversation. Summed up: he knew about Tesla, claimed not to like ‘them/it’ (not sure specifically what he didn’t like) but quicky stated ‘it’ was the future.

I didn’t see one BEV/EV (did see two Camaros though) and the electrical infrastructure is...interesting. But the young people in the major cities, most of whom want to leave their country for better opportunities, all knew about Tesla.
 
If you think Republicans won't again try to cut taxes, you are being naïve. Already Trump is talking about "middle class tax cuts" - that has always been code for crumbs for the middle class rest for the upper class.
The upper class isn't paying any taxes to speak of at this point anyway. I guess they could cut it below zero, they've done that before.

They don't care about deficits or even inflation. Yes, they don't want central bank increase interest rates (which makes sense) - but that's only part of the equation.
It's true, the Republicans and their bosses don't care. The market traders do care, though, and they do not like inflation.
 
As Chief Editor of the Shortsville Times I feel it's my duty to give you the other side of investing in Tesla.

1. Oil is organic. Everyone loves organic food. Don't you think your car deserves the best ?

2. Bankwupcy ! They lose money on every car. The more they make, the faster they will go bankrupt.

3. Trump hates electric cars. Electric cars are unamerican.

Short the stock and become a Billionaire overnight ! It's the American way.
 
Water Rights | Truckee Meadows Water Authority

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How is water acquired for new projects?

Any time someone wants to build a house, subdivision or business, they must dedicate water rights to TMWA to meet all the water needs of the project. Most of the water rights used this way have been purchased on the open market. When people who own water rights decide not to use them any longer, they can sell them to TMWA, developers and other parties. Most of these unused water rights are agricultural irrigation rights. TMWA converts agricultural water rights to municipal water rights to serve new projects.

There is no such thing as new Truckee River water rights to service development because additional water cannot be diverted from the river or pumped from underground aquifers. So, when unused water rights are presented to TMWA to service new homes or businesses, it is the same amount of water that is already allowed to be diverted. It is simply transferred from agricultural use to municipal use. Groundwater rights (wells) are treated in the same way.

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Huh. So Truckee has a particularly generous ag-to-residential water rights conversion process. Interesting to know.

I'll repeat: Tesla needs to do nothing more than buy up some of the existing farms on the Truckee River (or at least their water rights). Or any of the dozen other means for getting water that I laid out, most of which you completely ignored.

One of the reasons I'm ignoring this silliness is that this entire set of ideas still requires Tesla to *build an entire residential subdivision*, including all the city services.

Ever looked up how much that costs?
It's hard to find these numbers, but the extreme lowball numbers are in the $100 million range, and you're already eating up any putative savings from greater solar power production in Sparks. For developers, it's normally financed by heavy debt loads. For 10,000 people it probably runs well over $500 million unless they get extremely cheap buildings.

This sort of high-leverage housing development is the last thing Tesla should get involved in. If they can get an outside financier to do it, OK.

And this is just to build enough housing to convince people to come to Sparks. The utilities, such as water, merely add to the cost, and are a sideshow.

Given that aqueducts provide water all the way from inland California so cheaply to the coast that it's used for farming (remember, farms buy water by the acre foot),
It's not remotely cheap -- it's wildly subsidized. California water politics is something I actually *do* know. There's a well-documented phenomenon in California of residential and commerical restrictions on water use while agricultural interests are allowed to outright waste water. Thanks for informing me that the politics are different in the Truckee River part of Nevada...
 
The upper class isn't paying any taxes to speak of at this point anyway. I guess they could cut it below zero, they've done that before.

It's effectively done already: the U.S. is one of the most lucrative, most profitable markets on the planet - and it is owned by birthright by ~300 million U.S. citizens.

Any similar privately owned market comes with significant fees/taxation: to Apple or Google every market participant has to pay a fee of ~30% of revenue, simply for the privilege to gain access and to be able to profit.

The upper class pays close to 0% taxes, i.e. they are already freeloading about -30% from fair market prices...
 
One of the reasons I'm ignoring this silliness is that this entire set of ideas still requires Tesla to *build an entire residential subdivision*, including all the city services.

Building a residential subdivision is not necessarily a cost at all. It's not free housing we're talking about here. Housing is an industry. People build homes because they profit on them when people buy them, to own or rent.

Large buys on prefab housing (what Elon has described) should serve them very well, financially. They have a captive buying / rental market; Tesla already turns away far more job applicants than they accept, and if there's an economic downturn, that's only increase.

To put it another way: if one wanted to take a hostile viewpoint to what Elon has proposed, he's basically talking about reinventing the old "Company Store" concept. And as we all know, in such scenarios, it's the company that makes out like a bandit.
 
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Building a residential subdivision is not necessarily a cost at all.
If you prefer different terminology, I could say it's a cash flow drain. It has to be financed during construction. Eventually, you may get lucky and people may buy them... or they might not.

Tesla does have a captive workforce who could certainly be convinced to rent, but whether they could be convinced to buy is another matter. Who wants to live in Sparks long-term? Really? It's going to be more like "going to the mines" to work for a lot of people.

It's the business of real estate development. This is a perfectly legitimate business, and gets large tax breaks, but it's very capital intensive. Is going into another extremely capital-intensive business the right thing for Tesla to do right now? I say no.

If they can get outside finance capital for it, then fine. But I say they shouldn't be using their own capital for it; it's a poor deployment of capital when they have service center, superchargers, and factories to build. The process of building roads and water lines and buying up water rights and so forth is merely tying up more capital.

Getting outside finance capital has not been the easiest thing for Tesla lately, and decisions which are highly finance-capital-intensive seem seriously unsound in Tesla's current state. Maybe in 5 years Tesla will be sufficiently awash in capital that it will make sense to start its own captive housing finance business, but it isn't now,
 
Ever looked up how much that costs? It's hard to find these numbers, but the extreme lowball numbers are in the $100 million range, and you're already eating up any putative savings from greater solar power production in Sparks. For developers, it's normally financed by heavy debt loads. For 10,000 people it probably runs well over $500 million unless they get extremely cheap buildings.

Retail prices for mobile homes :
1 b 1 bath 20k
2 and 1 30k
3 and 2 40k

10k people worth (one worker per family) costs 300 million. Elon makes his own mobile home plant, cut that in half (at least, what is mark up?).

Trench in the water, sewer , and electric to start (frost line is only 24 inches). Gravel base. Groundskeeping and maintenance included.

Whole thing is paid for from rent or salary adjustments anyway. (No one will buy them).

Say 400 million: a collateral loan at 5% interest and 15 year term that's $3.163 million a month year, $316 per worker per year, mouse nuts.p. minimal cost for housing from employee's point of view.
Plus with mobile, Tesla only adds units as needed, minimal surplus capacity.

Edit months not year

Also shipping container conversions...
 
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