TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[replicant]

Mini interview with Jerome, too. Phil also mentions that they will be at Giga all day, so I would expect further videos to pop up over the course of the day.

is it possible that this invitation is in response to VW's recent push on battery manufacturing?

 

[ZsoZso]

Your point from this Friday post is well taken, @Fact Checking. It just occurred to me that people will develop an intolerance for auto exhaust in much the same way they suddenly switched to a position of intolerance with second-hand smoke. All of a sudden, the realization that I don't have to breathe poison changes everything.

Much of the switch in attitudes within the U.S. started in California when smoking was outlawed in restaurants. People suddenly realized how nice it was to dine out and not breathe poison. Before long the safety zone expanded beyond Califonia and restaurants and in short order smokers were expelled from most all public places.

I remember when Northwest Airlines became the first U.S. airline to ban smoking on their domestic flights. Naysayers said that Northwest would regret it immediately because they would lose the entire smoking section of the plane to other airlines. Instead, loads increased at Northwest as passengers from other airlines sought refuge from breathing recirculated smoke in a large aluminum tube, 35,000 feet above the earth. In short order all U.S. airlines dumped their smokers too because non-smoking passengers weren't going to tolerate the poisoning any more. It only took one airline to get the dominos falling, and it will only take one vehicle manufacturer to do the same with clean air vehicles.

Years from now, we'll be able to stroll through Manhattan, or London, or Paris and enjoy the magic of these cities without choking on diesel fumes. By investing in Tesla and actively defending and promoting the company, we are the warriors fighting to make this future become reality. Signs are strongly indicating that we have already tipped the scales in this fight. Take a deep breath, fellow warriors, our time is drawing near.

Good points, but I'd like to add that the start of the change for smoking required a lot of effort, because the tobacco industry used very efficient FUD campaign to block it. The same tactics (and same Think Tanks and PR campaign) is used to block action against climate change now, see the film:
Merchants of Doubt (film) - Wikipedia

I am pretty sure this campaign is part of the funding behind the anti-Tesla FUD as well. So the battle is not as easy to win as it should be. We need to fight some deep pocket FUD-masters...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I've been pulling out some of my profit in TSLA recently, having been somewhat bearish about the November prospects (I'm more sanguine about December, at least how things look at present). Now that prices are down again, and particularly if they go lower, I'm thinking about using some of that money to buy February call options, to capture the effect of the Q4 earnings report. I've only been in stock previously; for all of you experienced options traders, do you have any tips to suggest?

Don't do it.

Actually, what do I know? One thing you need to figure out is how much would it hurt if you lost 50% or 80%?
It's likely you'll make money, but can you live with consequences if it turns opposite?

EDIT: I just read in another post that this is your play money, so I guess as long as it's small portion of investment funds, it's fine. I've had many a 300%+ on such investments, it's other ones that hurt...

 

[EVMeister]

It is calming to see TSLA just slowly creeping back up. Although it seems almost too quiet at the moment.

 

[KarenRei]

Don't do it.
View attachment 352297
Actually, what do I know? One thing you need to figure out is how much would it hurt if you lost 50% or 80%?
It's likely you'll make money, but can you live with consequences if it turns opposite?

EDIT: I just read in another post that this is your play money, so I guess as long as it's small portion of investment funds, it's fine. I've had many a 300%+ on such investments, it's other ones that hurt...

Yes, I still have plenty of stock. This is not a YOLO. This is profits from the previous stock rise.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Meet me there: Light-blue suit, yellow-striped tie and a cap that says "Elon checks facts".

 

[Thumper]

I am surprised not to see any cities in Norway on the European Model 3 debut list.

 

[EVMeister]

Or the UK... Oh wait, yeah we drive on the wrong side of the road.

 

[LoveTSLA]

As someone who was one of the few voices on this forum warning against irrational optimism when almost everyone here was talking about massive privatization-driven short squeezes, I would have to disagree with this statement. I was actually considering selling, but I took too long; had the price held for another day or two, I would have likely liquefied a large chunk of my TSLA assets.

Why?

First off, I was in disagreement about the potential / potential scale of such a squeeze. Note my sig; that replaced my previous sig arguing against the short squeeze exuberance. It caused quite a controversy at the time.

Regardless of whether people here agreed with me, Tesla bears certainly did not believe in any huge >$420 short squeeze. They saw $420 as a cap. The market clearly judged - despite people here investing at ~$380 - that there was ample probability for the deal to go awry (do I need to point out that as much as we may not like to admit it, they were right?).

We know how these things go. The bears' "Tesla is burning cash and en route to failure" narrative was still very much alive and influential at the time. And in this regime, whenever any good news about Tesla came out, it always led to a bunch of armchair sleuths "figuring out the real reason why this couldn't be good news". These negative arguments then would get shared and amplified (including by mainstream outlets), and eventually take down any price spike. With a limited upside and significant potential to wear down optimism, I saw holding as a poor investment at that time.... under one condition: that I'd be able to get back into Tesla later.

This, however, was the issue: in the initial chaos, I wasn't sure I'd be able to get back in before any privatization vote. I had no clue how long the timescales under discussion would be and any nuance that would be involved. It took me a couple days to get a handle on this, and decide that there was no immediacy. But by then the stock had dropped to ~$350, and shortly thereafter, ~$338. While that didn't convince me to go into a buying mode, it certainly took my interest out of selling.

But I can tell you this: I certainly had no interest in buying at ~$380. Which positioned me as one of the more bearish members of this forum at the time - a somewhat odd position to be in. So when you argue that "nobody could have seen coming" a price fall, that's simply not true.



Exactly. Short-term options are riskier. Which is why the premiums are lower and profit potential higher.

I've done enough profit taking to shore up my cash position for my non-investment needs. The rest that I've taken out is ready for new investment opportunities, and we're hovering near prices that I'd feel comfortable buying at. With this money, I'm looking to maximize probability-weighted profit potential, rather than to achieve guaranteed returns.

Quite a few short term swing traders here. I wish my job allow me to do that.

 

[mutle]

Please check if it is a EU model and if so, what the charging port looks like!

People on Reddit called their shops and have confirmed that it's an US model. Still hoping for CCS, there was a picture that Electrek posted recently which showed a Type-2 port which was moved up compared to where the port is on the US cars, there should be enough room for the CCS-DC connectors below. However if it is an option I hope it's available from the start.

 

[tivoboy]

Yesterday bought Dec $345 calls at 17$, today sold Dec $355 for 17$ creating Dec bull call spread for net .00$. I'ii probably sell it if it gets over 7.5$.

 

[SpaceCash]

In idle spirits, I bought a $365 call for this Friday.
Just posting here so I can claim to be a genius if it hits

 

[traxila]

Wow talk about contrarian indicators on this Board sometimes. Was getting all ready for test of 300 today lol

 

[Starno]

He's particularly bullish on TSLA longterm. Just peruse his history and pattern of posting. He def has a sweet spot for tsla and don't forget the manipulation with tsla is real, which can frustrate the technical analysis he specializes in

Maybe, I didn't really pay attention to him before so maybe he's good. But from the few times I have seen people screenshooting his tweets and posting it here, among the 3-4 times I saw them, almost always the SP doesn't follow what he predicts.

 

[SpaceCash]

Maybe, I didn't really pay attention to him before so maybe he's good. But from the few times I have seen people screenshooting his tweets and posting it here, among the 3-4 times I saw them, almost always the SP doesn't follow what he predicts.

I've always been of the opinion that TA is about as useful as reading tea leaves. But I still like his takes

 

[MartinAustin]

I am surprised not to see any cities in Norway on the European Model 3 debut list.

If they needed to increase demand in Norway, there would be Model 3 preview events in Norway

TSLA up $10... I'll take it.

The CNBC coverage is awesome... it's hard to spin the Gigafactory negatively. Good to see Jerome's first on-camera interview since his promotion. And... I notice some fresh new girders being put up in the exterior areas. Perhaps they are finally starting to add on a new section, now that they made $300million profit last quarter.

I'm sure there will be coverage all day... Phil LeBeau will milk it, since they made the trip to Sparks.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

In idle spirits, I bought a $365 call for this Friday.
Just posting here so I can claim to be a genius if it hits

i bought 380c for LOTTO this Friday in case if that elusive ATH hit.

Great minds think alike yes?

 

[dw4ngg]

I bought QQQ and FB puts.....

Edit: whoops, this is TSLA thread.. I have lots of Dec 21 $365 calls...

 

[avoigt]

Battery production plant visit

An inside look at Tesla's Gigafactory

Guillen:

• actually quite a lot (of efficiencies)
• we are adding production lines (from Panasonic) ... getting some greater economy of scales
• the design of the production lines themselves are becoming better
• we find efficiency here and there to increase the throughput and increase yield
• and thirdly we are improving the design of the cell
• the design of the cells is not frozen it involves
• and we have a very nice roadmap for technology improvements for the coming years

Nice inside view into the production facility in Nevada. Very confident notes from Guillen and it feels like they are at or below $100 on a cell level already but that's speculation....

 

[jbih]

I am surprised not to see any cities in Norway on the European Model 3 debut list.

I don't read Norwegian, but it seems they're coming to Skøyen:
Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter