TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wipster]

Now that's a nice way to start the day!

Now this is not a nice way to start the day...

 

[lklundin]

Well, I expected a cascade of sell orders at 340, but instead seems to be more buys that were triggered.

Don't think we'll see green today - aside the bad macro, the shorty-shorts are making mischief...

I bought some at 338, so let's see what happens...

 

[EVMeister]

Drax7, did your sense of humour go down with the market? Or did it not IPO yet?

 

[erha]

Looks like this day is improving. I got a bit worried there for a while. Don’t want a recession now. Hopefully NASDAQ will trade flat for some months to come now...

 

[Drax7]

Drax7, did your sense of humour go down with the market? Or did it not IPO yet?

Time out , peace

It’s a tense situation, fight or flee conditions, red alert,
Facebook turning was a leading indicator.

 

[KarenRei]

Looks like this day is improving. I got a bit worried there for a while. Don’t want a recession now.

I vote for a deep recession that miraculously lifts right around the Q4 report.

 

[MartinAustin]

It looks to me like TSLA is recovering all of this morning's deficit, and may be green by the end of the session

 

[Drax7]

I vote for a deep recession that miraculously lifts right around the Q4 report.

Yeah right, keep choreographing your trades instead of investing

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah right, keep choreographing your trades instead of investing

Yeah, learn to recognize a joke when you see one.

 

[Pezpunk]

go home TSLA, you're drunk.

 

[KarenRei]

go home TSLA, you're drunk.

Macros are drunk. Lot of fear going around, it seems.

 

[EVNow]

Looks like this day is improving. I got a bit worried there for a while. Don’t want a recession now. Hopefully NASDAQ will trade flat for some months to come now...

I don't think a recession will hit before 2nd half of 2020

But trading flat looks unlikely. Lot of politics driven uncertainty.

 

[KarenRei]

TSLA's deficit vs. Nasdaq has dropped to under half a percent.

 

[SpaceCash]

My money's on green by EOD

Now I'm going back to sleep for a spell

 

[Unpilot]

My money's on green by EOD

Now I'm going back to sleep for a spell

Green...weak...I say ATH!

 

[Fact Checking]

Macros are drunk. Lot of fear going around, it seems.

Yes, $TSLA today almost perfectly mirrored the fluctuations of the NASDAQ-100 futures: they bottomed together and they peaked together.

The macro fears are justified: both Italy and BRExit are big unknowns that will have global effects if the crisis escalates, Trump obviously can tank the economy. Flight from the Euro to the dollar will drop all USD denominated equities.

At least the U.S. housing market doesn't look like is tanking from today's report (as expected really), that's one less recession trigger to worry about.

 

[jhm]

A metric sugar ton, especially if they are switching to trucking from rail for deliveries. Each Semi is a momentary drop in revenue for a long term boost.

generalized categories that cross over in timing:
Delivery transports (Tesla owned)
Fremont to Sparks trucks
Fremont to Port of LA trucks (emissions restrictions)
Supplier trucks (with cost reductions to Tesla)
Outright purchased trucks.

MA: Red but trending up...

Each early truck that Tesla retains for its own use is an investment. It is also R&D. It would be well played for Tesla to have a highly reliable product before taking it to market. For example, the problems that BYD is having trying to move aggressively into electric buses is tarnishing both its own reputation and the image of EV buses generally. Tesla really cannot afford to enter the market that way. They need to have a thoroughly battle tested fleet of semis before they take this product to market. Even beta testing with high profile clients is high risk. We absolutely do not want a situation where the likes of UPS is returning beta version products back to Tesla. Just imagine the flood of negative press that would generate. That could well send the stock back to sub-$300 levels a year or two from now. Tesla needs at least tens of millions of test miles on its own fleet before walking into that.

 

[Chop110]

Green...weak...I say ATH!

TrendTrader007? Is that you?

 

[tivoboy]

If you followed me into this, I closed this bcs today. bought back dec355 for 23.25, sold dec345 for 34$, net credit 10.75$ (paid 0$). Could probably have let the $345 stretch a bit but buying back the Dec355 was key.

If we CLOSE over $355.5 today it will be a good sign.. if we don't, it won't be a good sign. Not sure what is bringing this little rally, its a bit of a disconnect and I don't think its just everybody coming around to thinking TESLA is somehow undervalued.

A close under $355 could lead to another sub $348, and I would look to put this spread on again.

So, didn't really think I'd be able to re-enter this trade so quickly, but put it back on today picked up the dec345 call at 19.24 (it went to 18.8x), and I'll look to try and sell the dec355 call to pair this up at 26-27.5$ for a net CREDIT of +6.75-7.75$. Spread will pay 10$ at expiration as well. I think I might just watch and hold this to expiration.

stay frosty.

 

[tivoboy]

I don't think a recession will hit before 2nd half of 2020

But trading flat looks unlikely. Lot of politics driven uncertainty.

technically, we never really know exactly WHEN the recession "hits" until after it has hit.