TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

As a country, do we prop up this industry like a zombie or do we have a national strategy pivot toward this new energy economy which all indicators show is happening underneath it all?

Doubtful that this admin (or even any other) would have the foresight and/or ability to guide such a pivot.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The bottomline:

Gas car sales growth stagnate.

Electric car sales exponential.

And led by Tesla(~50% of us electric market) which is still ramping production steaming its way to even lower cost, broadest acessable market vehicles that low middle income consumers are anxiously awaiting to buy.

The writing is on the wall. Oil and gas are on the way out. The scary thing is our whole international financial system backbone is built on oil and gas industry.

As a country, do we prop up this industry like a zombie or do we have a national strategy pivot toward this new energy economy which all indicators show is happening underneath it all?

Under this administration? Don't hold your breath for the latter.

 

[Fact Checking]

It seems like that may be happening already. IIRC growth in the big cities has slowed right? If I still lived in DC I'd be either paying rent or struggling with a crazy mortgage.

I believe what is happening right now in the U.S. is internal migration of young people from cities with crazy real-estate prices, to cities with lower cost of living: Colorado (Denver area), Texas (Austin, Houston, Denver areas).

If you check the county level maps you'll see that even in the cheap cost of living states the rural counties are depopulating:

Colorado Population Growth Rate (2010 - 2014) by County
Texas Population Growth Rate (2010 - 2014) by County​

(Caveat: these are 2010-2014 trends, i.e. ~4 years old. Some of the trends have changed, although not significantly.)

Note that with the exception of ridiculously high cost of living super-city-centers, even relatively high cost of living city centers are registering population growth: the self-reinforcing cycle of jobs creating prosperity which is creating higher
population density which improves economic efficiency, which attracts more young people, etc.

A good example is California:

California Population Growth Rate (2010 - 2014) by County​

Note how even the Bay area and San Diego metropolitan area is registering growth, despite very high housing prices - while LA is already showing signs of slowdown.

The biggest loser of this process is the Rust Belt and Michigan in particular:

Michigan Population Growth Rate (2010 - 2014) by County​

Ohio is struggling too, with the exception of the Columbus area that is seeing population growth:

Ohio Population Growth Rate (2010 - 2014) by County​

Checking those maps will explain a lot about the rise of Trump politics and U.S. politics in particular:

• explains why Texas has turned purple in 2018 and could turn blue in 2020 and could be more and more blue from there on, like California is today,
• it also explains why Kentucky, rather unexpectedly, turned blue in a number of key areas.
• Democratic-leaning demographies are moving into urban counties, making rural areas redder and urban areas bluer. (Often these migratory patterns are not properly re-weighted through redistricting, which process was ~80% controlled by Republicans in the last ~20 years, making "natural looking" gerrymandering easier.)

These demographic trends, which are unstoppable like the tide, are also predicting a cataclysmic event in the near future (2020 or 2024), when Democrats will rise to power on all levels of the federal government and won't lose it for 10-20 years, until the Republican party gets rid of the racist aspects of its politics and remakes itself as a party not based in resisting change/progress.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

Very disappointed with General Motors and their CEO, Mary Barra, for closing plants in Ohio, Michigan and Maryland. Nothing being closed in Mexico & China. The U.S. saved General Motors, and this is the THANKS we get! We are now looking at cutting all @GM subsidies, including....

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

....for electric cars. General Motors made a big China bet years ago when they built plants there (and in Mexico) - don’t think that bet is going to pay off. I am here to protect America’s Workers!

Hmm makes me think he might try to get something attached to Heller’s EV bill to exclude foreign-built cars. If he wanted to punish anyone making EVs elsewhere and importing them, that’d be the way to do it. Might even get it past the Dems in the house.

 

[uselesslogin]

Hmm makes me think he might try to get something attached to Heller’s EV bill to exclude foreign-built cars. If he wanted to punish anyone making EVs elsewhere and importing them, that’d be the way to do it. Might even get it past the Dems in the house.

OK, sure, but GM still makes the Bolt in the US and I don't know of any imported GM electric cars I can buy.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

OK, sure, but GM still makes the Bolt in the US and I don't know of any imported GM electric cars I can buy.

But does Trump know that?

 

[UncaNed]

The bottomline:

Gas car sales growth stagnate.

Electric car sales exponential.

And led by Tesla(~50% of us electric market) which is still ramping production steaming its way to even lower cost, broadest acessable market vehicles that low middle income consumers are anxiously awaiting to buy.

The writing is on the wall. Oil and gas are on the way out. The scary thing is our whole international financial system backbone is built on oil and gas industry.

As a country, do we prop up this industry like a zombie or do we have a national strategy pivot toward this new energy economy which all indicators show is happening underneath it all?

The Chinese, in a similar situation, would heap on the subsidies, tax breaks, cut through red tape and do whatever it takes to arrange for GM or Tesla to replace those dying factories with cutting edge electric auto manufacturing plants lickety-split.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Doubtful that this admin (or even any other) would have the foresight and/or ability to guide such a pivot.

LOL! Indeed, this Administration, and every preceding one, has done their level best to FIGHT such a pivot.

NO MATTER! EVs will RULE!

CH3ERS!

 

[Unpilot]

Dont anyone dare say

IT'S GREEN!

 

[JBRR]

Tesla could benefit from GM plant closings - Goldman Sachs - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Cherry Wine]

Hmm makes me think he might try to get something attached to Heller’s EV bill to exclude foreign-built cars. If he wanted to punish anyone making EVs elsewhere and importing them, that’d be the way to do it. Might even get it past the Dems in the house.

My .02: this is more red meat for Trump's base, to which EVs are bad.

 

[BLSmith2112]

My .02: this is more red meat for Trump's base, to which EVs are bad.

Has Trump ever out right said anything negative about EVs in general? I read once he owned a Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OK, sure, but GM still makes the Bolt in the US and I don't know of any imported GM electric cars I can buy.

This all bluster, Trump pandering to his base in the rust belt. Those jobs are gone, just like GM's access to the Federal EV Tax credit beginning in 2019 Q2.

Funny that's when GM ceases production of the Volt, wot?

P.S. Do you think Trump knows it's the new (Dem) House that passes tax law, not the Executive Branch?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I read once he owned a Tesla.

LOL! You need to stop reading InfoWars

Here's a Engineering Journal instead:

EMISSIONS: Trump makes his biggest move on climate with car rules

CH3ERS!

 

[M3Rider]

Having the resources and machinery capable of building large structures needed to build new space craft might be among the biggest challenges.

Assuming anybody makes it there in a functioning state after being exposed to space radiation. I haven't heard that it's been solved. But still 7-10 years to go per Musk.

 

[humbaba]

P.S. Do you think Trump knows it's the new (Dem) House that passes tax law, not the Executive Branch?

must. resist. responding to rhetorical questions. must. resist

 

[Nocturnal]

Has Trump ever out right said anything negative about EVs in general? I read once he owned a Tesla.

It's not like we can take him at his word.

 

[RobStark]

LOL! You need to stop reading InfoWars

Here's a Engineering Journal instead:

EMISSIONS: Trump makes his biggest move on climate with car rules

CH3ERS!

How about Green Car Reports quoting the Washington Post? Two bastions of right-wing reaction.

Donald Trump owned two American cars; one was a Tesla

 

[MikeQ]

LOL! You need to stop reading InfoWars

Here's a Engineering Journal instead:

EMISSIONS: Trump makes his biggest move on climate with car rules

CH3ERS!

How about Green Car Reports quoting the Washington Post? Two bastions of right-wing reaction.

Donald Trump owned two American cars; one was a Tesla

Not everyone who owns a Tesla is a tree humper.

 

[humbaba]

Assuming anybody makes it there in a functioning state after being exposed to space radiation. I haven't heard that it's been solved. But still 7-10 years to go per Musk.

I'm not sure what isn't solved. Its been a decade or three, so the numbers are fuzzy, but what I remember is that it hinges on having enough mass to absorb the radiation. And excess mass is not good for rockets. Especially when attempting to leave a gravity well.

No citations unfortunately, but I also recall that we've been lucky so far that astronauts have been in either earth or moon shadow when a nice burst of solar radiation passes by. Which seems unlikely on a long trip to Mars given their relative frequency.

Relevance to market action? Hmm... Musk plans on departing to Mars on the Starship nee BFR which is likely to permanently remove him from any position in his companies?