TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

OT
Hesitate to ask: What is NFI?

I have NFI. ;-)

 

[lklundin]

its a bit map rendering of an autotrace of a rendered image. Its a clip from

But I liked the pony...

 

[Curt Renz]

Curt: are ARK-type ETFs, then, bog-standard good* old-fashioned closed-end funds?

*for a given definition of "good". I don't like 'em and never did, though I had to run one for a long time.

In short, yes.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Indeed, I only call it as I see it.. I don't have any ulterior motive. I don't presume to think that I could somehow change the direction of a billion dollar company with my posts on some random online forum. I'm simply posting about what I see in macro impact, equity market, company business and equity technicals for the stock in question. The marriage of that is how I get my thesis, then I distill that into where I see the best opportunity for return. Selling/buying calls, spreads, buying the stock outright, overwriting, or simply sitting on my hands waiting for the stock to come to me (usually at a lower price). And yes, I do very well at this across most major sectors. I'm not good with real estate or consumer retail (other than the tech side)

I AM trying to make money and I do that very well and predictably and I don't have any shame in making the money in either direction. While not shorting the stock directly (if that is the directional bias that I see) I'll buy puts, or lighten long positions or sell calls. The derivatives market is there for that purpose. And as well, I simply call it like I see it. As most who have comment here have noted, I call it as I see it and it pretty much goes EXACTLY in that direction. Don't be misled that I am day/hour trading - I'm not. I swing trade and that is simply a high confidence in directional bias over short to medium term durations.

I'm not posting things about major racial bias in the factory, or quality control concerns (okay, I did post some about that back in the spring because I said in 2017 that were would be production delays and QC concerns) so I can't see how this is spreading FUD.

And if it is right, literally 80+% of the time, how can it be FUD other than accurately predicting the future?

As an inexperienced investor who would like to add to their long TSLA holdings by taking advantage of short-term price swings, I greatly appreciate the musings and commentary of you, @neroden, @KarenRei, and a select few others. And frankly, we're all done a disservice if this forum becomes an echo chamber of super bulls where every upswing is the $4000 squeeze.

So, thank you, and please keep sharing your thoughts. There's at least one forum member who reads more closely when your name pops up, I assure you.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Quite an impressive price action day. Gotta be shorts forced to cover. Delightful.

Noob question. Is short covering a computer triggered action or a human decision? If it's the former it fits with the start of trading up spikes we've seen last two sessions.

 

[lklundin]

Noob question. Is short covering a computer triggered action or a human decision? If it's the former it fits with the start of trading up spikes we've seen last two sessions.

Short Covering just means that stock that was borrowed and sold is repurchased and returned to the lender.

 

[SpaceCash]

Noob question. Is short covering a computer triggered action or a human decision? If it's the former it fits with the start of trading up spikes we've seen last two sessions.

It's not automatic. One must "buy to cover". Can be forced by broker if one's margin runs out, however

 

[Zaxxon]

It is likely that from now on, his nonsense no longer will be listened to

Oh, yeah. I'm sure that this instance of extremely obvious lying will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. That's the ticket.

 

[Heimdallr]

Needless to say I'm very happy with TSLA share price action today, outperforming NASDAQ by more than 4%. If we look at the estimated sales numbers from InsideEV, Tesla seems to be on track for a new record quarter for deliveries. Growth seems to have slowed down from last quarter's breakneck pace but that had to be expected.

Here's the comparison between Q4 and Q3 for Tesla for the first two months:
Model S: 4'100 vs. 3'825 +7%
Model X: 4'425 vs. 4'075 +9%
Model 3: 36'400 vs. 32'050 +14%

If we extrapolate this growth to December, we get:
Model S: ~ 8100 deliveries
Model X: ~ 8700 deliveries
Model 3: ~ 61'500 deliveries
Total: 78'000+ deliveries for the US alone, not too shabby

Model S & X are available worldwide and Model 3 is sold to Canada in addition to the US.

 

[tivoboy]

I noticed this and theorize that it falls in line with an obfuscatory campaign. Everyone expected a jump yesterday and it would have been too contrarian to forecast something low at that time.

But, I'll remind you that Sunday morning I predicted we would open at 362.5+ Monday morning, and well we did. The 370$ from last Friday was based on the risk on element that the market and equity futures were already presenting and what I expected to actually occur from the G20 meeting over the weekend. which well occurred exactly as detailed. So, I'm not sure how this is intentional obfuscation.

 

[SpaceCash]

But, I'll remind you that Sunday morning I predicted we would open at 362.5+ Monday morning, and well we did. The 370$ from last Friday was based on the risk on element that the market and equity futures were already presenting and what I expected to actually occur from the G20 meeting over the weekend. which well occurred exactly as detailed. So, I'm not sure how this is intentional obfuscation.

You HAVE accurately predicted precise sp levels several times, can't dispute that

 

[Unpilot]

Oh, yeah. I'm sure that this instance of extremely obvious lying will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. That's the ticket.

Yeah....this is the one.....yeah....

 

[shlokavica22]

No Flipping* Idea... it's a TLA I made up myself, just to confuser others...

And you call yourself Elon's fan tsk tsk


So, anyone else paying attention what's going on with the macros? Anyone worried?

 

[Heimdallr]

And you call yourself Elon's fan tsk tsk


So, anyone else paying attention what's going on with the macros? Anyone worried?

Adhere to the old mantra:
Warren Buffet: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

 

[Lucky_Man]

GMA (ABC News national morning program) ran a positive video feature on Autopilot this morning, with graphic showing how police stopped car without accident. 2m30s report took time to explain Autopilot feature and restrictions, reported that Autopilot has now logged 1 Billion miles, and included showing this Musk tweet.

NARRATOR: "According to the California Highway Patrol, the Officers finally maneuvering their vehicle in front of the speeding car, gradually slowing down. Tesla's Autopilot feature seemingly reacting and bringing the car to a stop without an accident. In this case, the Autopilot likely saved the driver's life and others, but experts warn drivers should not become complacent."​

Good report with no obvious FUD or 'concerns'. Overall I'll give it an 'A'.

The report aired today at 07:40 EST (before the Market opens). I'll post video later if it becomes available.


UPDATE: Here's the report from ABC News:

Video: Tesla driver arrested for allegedly sleeping

So, is the MSM coming around?

Cheers!

OT - OH (off hours)

Just got to watch ABC's video. Noticed the plates were marked 'CA EXEMPT'. What does that indicate?

 

[MP3Mike]

OT - OH (off hours)

Just got to watch ABC's video. Noticed the plates were marked 'CA EXEMPT'. What does that indicate?

It would be interesting to find out why AP didn't stop on it's own. Someone who stuck with firmware 7.x? Orange? Using an AutoPilot Buddy?

 

[Curt Renz]

OT - OH (off hours)

Just got to watch ABC's video. Noticed the plates were marked 'CA EXEMPT'. What does that indicate?

CA DMV: "Exempt state plates are placed on vehicles owned or leased by the state."

It's good to know that the state of California buys or leases Tesla cars. Let's hope that catches on with other government entities throughout the US and world.

 

[Carl Raymond]

It's not automatic. One must "buy to cover". Can be forced by broker if one's margin runs out, however

Forced as in broker asks firmly, or forced as in broker hits the buy button?

I'm searching for an explanation for the velocity of the last two morning upward movements. We kind of know that each breaking of new ground triggers profit taking. Surely a considered purchase would play it a bit cooler and wait for later in the day, hence my wondering if these are unconsidered purchases.

 

[nursebee]

Kahneman's third criterion is incorrect: you can have non-immediate feedback and still develop intuition. I mean, this is even what happens in chess, where the feedback can be very slow: your incorrect move on move 3 can lead to trouble many many moves later, and even if you're playing by mail (which is very slow), you can still develop chess intuition. It's not easy, because it requires mentally keeping track of what you're doing, but the feedback doesn't need to be *immediate*, it just needs to be burned into your brain repeatedly with strong emotional content. Perhaps obsession is required in order to develop intuition from non-immediate feedback.

Kahneman also doesn't realize that the stock market actually does meet those criteria. It is most certainly sufficiently regular to develop expert intuition. You have to have studied a couple of hundred years of it, pretty obsessively, I'd say.

Peter Lynch got to the point where he trusted his intuition on stock picking. He also said that he was living, eating, breathing, and dreaming stock analysis. The patterns in the stock market are subtle and tricky -- it's like developing intuition about quantum mechanics or about psychology (I guess it is a limited form of psychology) -- it requires far *more* practice than in other areas. But it's possible.[/


Lynch did not day trade, he did not make sporadic decisions based upon instinct. He is not an appropriate example for the kind of comments that get thrown around here -such as "my instinct told me to buy now".

I trust the university researcher on this more than some internet anonymous entity, though I welcome everyone to prove the validity of their ongoing instinct or intuition.

 

[Mobius484]

Loved the discussion points about titanium today, I had similiar thoughts when Elon talked about the its use in the truck. Strong performance TSLA today dispite macros.half the day my stock trader app was all red except Tesla. Grinnin’