TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

OT, but its after hours now and it is at least Tesla related.

I was reading the M3 manual and hit this, "While the ABS can improve stopping distance, it cannot overcome the laws of physics." I love the choice of words.

 

[tivoboy]

Nice close. Green Day green open.

 

[AudubonB]

OT, but its after hours now and it is at least Tesla related.

I was reading the M3 manual and hit this, "While the ABS can improve stopping distance, it cannot overcome the laws of physics." I love the choice of words.

That reminded me of first semester high school physics class - last year or maybe the mid-Eocene, I don't remember - when the quiz question gave vehicle's weight, velocity and another variable or two and said to use the minimum stopping distance using First Principles only.
So I wigged out and wrote something like "...then hits a 40" thick concrete wall and stops in 0 cm."

If anyone wants the specifics I'm sure I still have that quiz around here somewhere. After all, most the times I've moved since then have been on the NoAm continent..

 

[CorneliusXX]

True for commercial routes. They might get permission to do this.


Transport as a Service doesn't work for commuting routes anyway. As has been pointed out before, commuting hours are peak car usage hours, so it ends up putting the same number of cars on the road as if everyone owned a private car, and then sits idle the rest of the day. Not useful.

I'd assume vehicles would have more passengers on average in a sharing scenario but have no way to back up the info. If it cost $10 to get solo transport but $2.50 to share with three others then I think it is likely that many people would prefer to share. With advanced route planning there would be little downside to car pooling.

I was also thinking that this could be a great networking business, offer cars to certain industry subsets and you could get to know someone on the half hour on the way to work. E.g. if a lawyer wanted to get to know more lawyers they could select that subset. If you have a problem at work that requires an expert at graphic design - then say you want to travel with people in that industry. etc. If you don't like someone then block them from future commutes.

There's quite a bit of potential to make the commute both more efficient in terms of transport and time utilisation.

 

[AudubonB]

TSLA has moved up to 28th position in the NASDAQ-100 rankings, up from a consistant 30-31th place throughout November.

Is the market closed? Oh, good.

So for a post that IS On Topic yet still is devoid of any useful information, then:

IF these other placeholders' stock prices don't change, then in order to advance one rank TSLA must go to....

$372.63 to pass ADP at #27
$388.14 to pass Biogen #26
$386.15 to pass Mondelez
$414.80 Qualcomm

I ended the foolishness there - I think hitting $414.80 in the near future would be cause enough to celebrate that few would look to see where in the NASDAQ list TSLA might sit.

Okay, one last one: in order to topple a non-price-changing Apple at #1, TSLA would have to get to $5,055.56.
Next week, perhaps?

 

[avoigt]

Highest close since 8/8/18 if my charting abilities are accurate.

Thats correct but the fundamentals at that time have been very different compared to today.

In early August Elon did sent "the tweet" that made the stock jump from 340 to 378 in one day, the top was $387.

People and institutions buying that day considered it as fast money with an almost guarantee to make quickly gains but fundamental like production and deliver as well as profit/loss and cash flow has not been out for Q3. In fact everybody did expect at that time a cash burn quarter with a loss and low production ramp. Everybody was wrong.

Now the situation changed fundamentally. People who buy in on this today levels are more driven from the hard fact data about revenue generation, profit and cash flow expectations and not to make quickly a few bucks and sell again. To be fair some of those are still within the investor group of course but the melange of investors changed more to sustainable investment given the promising outlook of Tesla. More investors are real long as we had before more casino investors and maybe even day traders.

Given the situation the float of people that get nervous and sell quickly if bad news appear decreased and decrease further. That makes it more difficult for shorts to manipulate the stock because they rely on their ability to make weak shorts nervous and sell out of emotions. You get the positive cycle we are in, right ?!

All in all a very important and positive day however there is still quite some resistance in front of us up to the $ 389 level. Also we may see another pull back before we rise again.

..... but at the end all ways lead to $390 and above....

 

[SOULPEDL]

The best metric to use would be price per operating cash flow. In Q3 their cash flow was 1.4 billion dollars, which is 5.6 billion annualized, and market cap is around 60 billion dollars - which gives a ratio of about 10.7, still crazy low.

Remind me again why we aren't using Q3 profit x4 for est P/E?
$300 million, or $2.90 per share. So 60B/30Mx4 = 50 P/E.
Hmmm...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Remind me again why we aren't using Q3 profit x4 for est P/E?
$300 million, or $2.90 per share. So 60B/30Mx4 = 50 P/E.
Hmmm...

Trying again... $360/$2.90x4= 500 P/E. Correct?

I'm clearly missing something!!! Why would the ratio go up with more earnings? Makes no sense...

 

[sweter]

The manipulation is so obvious. Most stocks going up and reaching a high for the day, Tesla going the opposite way.

What’s the use? Are they really going to be doing this until next year?!?

When TSLA is going up but the market is going down is it not manipulation too? Who is such a powerful manipulator and why bulls are not doing that in the opposite direction? After all majority of shares is in longs hands?

 

[Mobius484]

All bleeding stops eventually....

 

[pyromatter]

Streetinsider.com on Twitter

Tesla $TSLA Said to Plan Paying March Note Holders Mix of Stock, Cash - Bloomberg

Dana Hull on Twitter

NEW on the TERMINAL: Tesla is Said to Plan Using Stock-Cash Mix to Pay Off March Debt. By moi and @MollySmithNews

 

[uselesslogin]

Trying again... $360/$2.90x4= 500 P/E. Correct?

No, $360/($2.90x4) = 31 PE.

(in other words estimate 12 month EPS first $2.90x4=$11.60 then $360/$11.60)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That reminded me of first semester high school physics class - last year or maybe the mid-Eocene, I don't remember - when the quiz question gave vehicle's weight, velocity and another variable or two and said to use the minimum stopping distance using First Principles only.
So I wigged out and wrote something like "...then hits a 40" thick concrete wall and stops in 0 cm."

If anyone wants the specifics I'm sure I still have that quiz around here somewhere. After all, most the times I've moved since then have been on the NoAm continent..

Technically false. There will be some forward movement of any non-infinite-mass barrier from the collision. Momentum is always conserved.

 

[dmunjal]

Fed saves the day again.

Restrained Inflation Reduces Urgency for Quarterly Rate-Increase Pattern

This is the real manipulation.

 

[Fact Checking]

Remind me again why we aren't using Q3 profit x4 for est P/E?

Because Tesla has a lot of expansion related costs that reduced profits - but which are not there in a no-growth, no-expansion-costs steady state scenario.

I.e. the GAAP P/E ratio is misleading and meaningless, which is why the shorts are pointing to it.

What is more representative of Tesla's corporate value is its money making performance.

 

[EVNow]

ou yessss close over 363, lets celebrate.

I know who is eating toothbrush for dinner today.

I'm very unimpressed with shorts today. Chewing on toothbrush in the bathroom while trying to manipulate stock price is not a picture of great confidence.

Its also possible the smarter ones have figured out the futility of spending money to keep it below $360. It never made much sense to start with. Even if we go with the weird, lets force Tesla to pay cash theory, the price that matters is the ones in Feb - which would be after Q4 close. So, everything would depend on Q4 earnings - not what they do to keep SP below 360 today in December. If Q4 is profitable with enough cash in the bank even billion shorting Tesla won't keep it below 360 in Feb.

If the macros are good tomorrow, we may not see 350s again for sometime.

 

[anthonyj]

Not sure how closely you are tracking - but my analysis is that it was best to have rolled in first week of November. My calls were worth more on 11/2 when the SP was 246, than Tuesday when the SP hit 266. In other words, that $20 SP increase was eaten away by time decay (plus some IV change).

Use a Black-Scholes spreadsheet to calculate the est. option price on a future date and SP. You can figure out - for a given SP increase whether it is best to hold the J'19 or to roll now. For my calls my calculation was that it was better to roll now than wait and roll - even with expected gradual SP increase.

Honestly wasn’t doing much analysis, was bullish so I held

 

[oneday]

Because Tesla has a lot of expansion related costs that reduced profits - but which are not there in a no-growth, no-expansion-costs steady state scenario.

I.e. the GAAP P/E ratio is misleading and meaningless, which is why the shorts are pointing to it.

What is more representative of Tesla's corporate value is its money making performance.

Realistically Tesla could double revenue from FY18 - FY19. Even if they miss a true doubling they should be awfully close.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Streetinsider.com on Twitter

Tesla $TSLA Said to Plan Paying March Note Holders Mix of Stock, Cash - Bloomberg

Dana Hull on Twitter

NEW on the TERMINAL: Tesla is Said to Plan Using Stock-Cash Mix to Pay Off March Debt. By moi and @MollySmithNews

Will be paid 50/50 cash/stock.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

When TSLA is going up but the market is going down is it not manipulation too? Who is such a powerful manipulator and why bulls are not doing that in the opposite direction? After all majority of shares is in longs hands?

Absolutely incomparable actions.