TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dreadnought]

Does anyone know how Moody's upgrades go usually?

The current 'junk' status of Tesla's bonds is a ridiculous caricature of 'rating' agencies, and I'm not sure they want to upgrade Tesla so shortly before the expected S&P 500 inclusion. To save face they might be upgrading Tesla this month or in January (after the delivery numbers) - or are they usually stubborn?

Does anyone have a good read on the expected timeline of the Moody's upgrade of $TSLA debt?

The timeline will determine the level of embarrassment:

1. After blowout Q3 (too late for that)
2. After Q4 production numbers indicate even better Q4
3. After Q4 record earnings
4. After repaying 920M$ in cash
5. After S&P inclusion
6. After Tesla bought Moody's

Hard to predict how much they're willing to take. I would probably die of embarrassment at level 3 already.

 

[Pezpunk]

ahaha somebody REALLY doesn't want TSLA to finish over $360. seems like every day this week it dives to $359 at close.

 

[Tslynk67]

NASDAQ-100 green for the first time today. TSLA gonna crush the Close?

Nope, heading to $359,87

 

[EVNow]

Nope, heading to $359,87

Looks like they started MMA a little early. Still 15 minutes to go. They must have sold about 50k shares to bring the SP down by $3. I expect them to dump another 100k shares with 5 minutes to go.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like they started MMA a little early. Still 15 minutes to go. They must have sold about 50k shares to bring the SP down by $3.

I know, it's nuts!

Might be a tough call today with everything turning green they have to fight the macro too.

Welcome to the pointy-end of the day!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The manipulation is so obvious. Most stocks going up and reaching a high for the day, Tesla going the opposite way.

What’s the use? Are they really going to be doing this until next year?!?

 

[uselesslogin]

The manipulation is so obvious. Most stocks going up and reaching a high for the day, Tesla going the opposite way.

But to what end at this point? Do they think that if they keep it below $360 then the buyers will eventually give up and go home and then they can crash the stock. I never understood this kind of thing as being anything but a waste of money by the people doing it. Still it is fun to watch and now closing above $360 has become something significant and something to look forward to.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not sure how closely you are tracking - but my analysis is that it was best to have rolled in first week of November. My calls were worth more on 11/2 when the SP was 246, than Tuesday when the SP hit 266. In other words, that $20 SP increase was eaten away by time decay (plus some IV change).

Use a Black-Scholes spreadsheet to calculate the est. option price on a future date and SP. You can figure out - for a given SP increase whether it is best to hold the J'19 or to roll now. For my calls my calculation was that it was better to roll now than wait and roll - even with expected gradual SP increase.

Can you point me to a spreadsheet? The website I use to calculate options pricing sometimes goes down.

 

[AlexS]

Intraday high today 367.38. Tuesday high was 368.68.

my bad

 

[AWDtsla]

But to what end at this point? Do they think that if they keep it below $360 then the buyers will eventually give up and go home and then they can crash the stock. I never understood this kind of thing as being anything but a waste of money by the people doing it.

"Other people's money"

 

[Cherry Wine]

But to what end at this point? Do they think that if they keep it below $360 then the buyers will eventually give up and go home and then they can crash the stock. I never understood this kind of thing as being anything but a waste of money by the people doing it. Still it is fun to watch and now closing above $360 has become something significant and something to look forward to.

Isn't it possible that these same folks acquired their shares during this morning's dip and are creating this action at a profit?

 

[EVNow]

Can you point me to a spreadsheet? The website I use to calculate options pricing sometimes goes down.

Let me cleanup the one I downloaded a few weeks back - and I'll post it here for everyone. I made some changes so that you can track prices over a range of SP - and calculate your post tax returns.

5 minutes and $362. It's a thriller !

 

[Tslynk67]

But to what end at this point? Do they think that if they keep it below $360 then the buyers will eventually give up and go home and then they can crash the stock. I never understood this kind of thing as being anything but a waste of money by the people doing it. Still it is fun to watch and now closing above $360 has become something significant and something to look forward to.

Something to do with the March convertible bonds at $360, but I can't remember the arguments - someone here who actually knows what they're talking about can explain... Where's FC when you need him?

But as I further understood, it's actually irrelevant anyway. So let the idiots throw their money at it. In any case, I don't see any correlation between the SP and Tesla's success anymore, they're past the danger zone.

 

[lklundin]

It’s so obvious that there is someone accumulating.

I know. Because It's me.

 

[Tslynk67]

Is the curse about to be lifted?

 

[EVNow]

Looks like it'll close above 360 !

ps : Wow - 363.06 - up %0.93. NASDAQ up 0.42%.

 

[uselesslogin]

OK $363.06! So $400 end of next week then?

 

[humbaba]

The timeline will determine the level of embarrassment:

1. After blowout Q3 (too late for that)
2. After Q4 production numbers indicate even better Q4
3. After Q4 record earnings
4. After repaying 920M$ in cash
5. After S&P inclusion
6. After Tesla bought Moody's

Hard to predict how much they're willing to take. I would probably die of embarrassment at level 3 already.

This got me to thinking about the Moody's downgrade which was done shortly before the Q1 production report. I recall seeing criticism of the timing with the defense that they needed to demonstrate their prognostication abilities by heading off Tesla at the pass and changing the rating before the report.

In that context, the failure to issue an upgrade looks like indefensibly poor prognostication. Anyone paying attention knew that Q3 was going to be good (the only question was how close vs outstanding) so they could have easily done an upgraded before the production report or the earnings call.

But, no, as you point out this is just going to become increasingly embarrassing. Not that I expect them to care.

 

[AlexS]

ou yessss close over 363, lets celebrate.

I know who is eating toothbrush for dinner today.

 

[Toolsmack]

Highest close since 8/8/18 if my charting abilities are accurate.