TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BioSehnsucht]

Weekend OT
My gut reaction to the 60 minutes segment was neutral. Nice to see Elon being Elon. As a fanboy, I was not pleased with the rehashing of old "controversy". I was not pleased with the childhood trauma push by Leslie. Elon handled it well and honestly.
There was plenty of ammo for FUD but those groups just make s%@t up anyway.
IMHO Macros will be more important than anything else tomorrow.
The long-term Tesla horizon looks quite bright (and solar powered).

Having watched the interview, it sometimes seemed like it was rushed from one topic to another when perhaps there was more to be heard. I suspect this is just the result of "editing for time" but the result was an excessive focus on FUD (which Elon did a decent job debunking, and like did a better job before the edits) and trying to paint him in an unfavorable light versus addressing thing fairly and focusing on truly relevant issues.

Unfollowing them on twitter may be a bit of an extreme reaction, but if Elon really did that I can understand why he did it. There was probably a lot of good stuff that didn't get aired in favor of rehashing old FUD.

Elon should make it a condition of all future interviews that he also gets a complete copy of the interview and is free to release it (edited or not) as he sees fit.

 

[Sancho]

Elon is a human Rorschach test. If you dislike Elon, every interview of him confirms your view of his instability and insincerity. If you like Elon, every interview confirms your view of his transparency and refreshing unorthodoxy.

 

[sundaymorning]

Twitter comments about this clip are remarkable tonight. Right out of the peanut gallery. A lot of people incl lawyers and journalists spewing nonsensical theories about Musk, his mental state, his attitude of entitlement, and whatnot. The bias and dislike for him based on nothing but ignorance and no doubt a lot of FUD is incredible.

Shorters are desperate, lawyers are opportunists, haters gonna hate. In the meantime, Tesla team puts in serious work and churns out more profit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is that 280Wh/kg at cell or pack level?

If it's as pack level, your 715Kg is pessimistic. Not all of the non-cell elements of the pack would double in mass, just because the mass of the cells doubled.

OT

Your questions have been "Jacked".

Cheers!

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Elon is a human Rorschach test. If you dislike Elon, every interview of him confirms your view of his instability and insincerity. If you like Elon, every interview confirms your view of his transparency and refreshing unorthodoxy.

He just looks like a blob of ink to me.

 

[mickificki]

60 min interview.

 

[MartinAustin]

There was so little new information in that 60 Minutes show that I honestly felt like it was filmed 2 months ago. (well at least, the day after the profit announcement)

Only that the SR Model 3 might be delivered 5-6 months from now sounded new, (but then, when was this filmed?)

Nothing positive for TSLA will come from this interview. However, with the avalanche of pro-Tesla news that has been coming out lately, it may have no effect on TSLA at all (would be worth noting)

Things like the trade-related macro conditions dragging the overall market downwards may have more effect on TSLA on Monday.

 

[dc_h]

I guess you don't know what you're talking about. I'm Parisian. Since 2012, I've been long tesla, cofounded a company that employs 5 persons and bought an appartment in Paris XVII (I hear grenades explode on the Champs Elysee from my bedroom). I was protesting along with yellow vests on Saturday. The unrest you've watched or heard about is the tip of the iceberg. What's going on on here are two ends of the political spectrum joining forces to compell politicians to commit to an ecological transition that poor people can afford. Without the latter (transition supported by all), we will end up with the far right. It is critical and urgent to get the governement to care about the way les petites gens are living. So far, they haven't care but they start to listen, now. People are finally trying to get something going (liberté, égalité, fraternité, all that) and will not accept the status quo. I recommend to listen to Nicolas Hulot when he explained why he had to resign.

If you have time to start a thread, I’m sure many here would appreciate more in depth thoughts. We tend to hear through our American meme prism.

 

[dc_h]

There was so little new information in that 60 Minutes show that I honestly felt like it was filmed 2 months ago. (well at least, the day after the profit announcement)

Only that the SR Model 3 might be delivered 5-6 months from now sounded new, (but then, when was this filmed?)

Nothing positive for TSLA will come from this interview. However, with the avalanche of pro-Tesla news that has been coming out lately, it may have no effect on TSLA at all (would be worth noting)

Things like the trade-related macro conditions dragging the overall market downwards may have more effect on TSLA on Monday.

Go to the websit. The 10 years after video was better than the tv segment.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There was so little new information in that 60 Minutes show that I honestly felt like it was filmed 2 months ago. (well at least, the day after the profit announcement)

Only that the SR Model 3 might be delivered 5-6 months from now sounded new, (but then, when was this filmed?)

Nothing positive for TSLA will come from this interview. However, with the avalanche of pro-Tesla news that has been coming out lately, it may have no effect on TSLA at all (would be worth noting)

Things like the trade-related macro conditions dragging the overall market downwards may have more effect on TSLA on Monday.

Yup. That reminds me, I need to check my laundry list (since this one is 8 mth old).

 

[dc_h]

He said maybe 5-6 months for 35k car, but sounded uncertain. That seems longer than the ~February date for the new cheaper battery pack that he has mentioned before! Demand is likely high enough for the higher-priced variants that it doesn't matter (and this may even be part of the reason for the delay), but that's something else that won't make for a good headline.

Depends on whose writing. If you like profits and high margin sales, it’s awesome. If you want the SR or lower margins, it is not good news. Guess I know what headline you’d lede.

 

[Carl Raymond]

There was so little new information in that 60 Minutes show

Let's remember that the average Mom n Dad investor, and even the average fund managing investor, is not nearly so well informed as regular readers of this thread. For Joe average, there was news in that broadcast. We may be surprised - it may move the needle. Since most random people I talk to have a negative impression of Tesla, this portrayal of Elon in a non-negative light could move the needle upwards.
Fund managers not only need to make the right investment decisions, they need to be able to justify those decisions. It's a lot easier when the people you need to justify those decisions to are on roughly the same page.

 

[anthonyj]

Crappy market conditions will result in a squeeze. After $389, shorts are charting through unknown territory and won’t have a reference point to sell short... big money is cornering the short sellers... too much money flowing into the stock at this time for this not to be the case. Also explains why some brokers aren’t allowing retail investors to short. Way too much risk.

In the stock market, the most unexpected outcome is the most likely outcome. We’re going to see a bubble-like squeeze within the next few months. It’s now or never.

 

[sundaymorning]

There was so little new information in that 60 Minutes show that I honestly felt like it was filmed 2 months ago. (well at least, the day after the profit announcement)

Only that the SR Model 3 might be delivered 5-6 months from now sounded new, (but then, when was this filmed?)

Nothing positive for TSLA will come from this interview. However, with the avalanche of pro-Tesla news that has been coming out lately, it may have no effect on TSLA at all (would be worth noting)

Things like the trade-related macro conditions dragging the overall market downwards may have more effect on TSLA on Monday.

I agree.

Let's remember that the average Mom n Dad investor, and even the average fund managing investor, is not nearly so well informed as regular readers of this thread. For Joe average, there was news in that broadcast. We may be surprised - it may move the needle. Since most random people I talk to have a negative impression of Tesla, this portrayal of Elon in a non-negative light could move the needle upwards.
Fund managers not only need to make the right investment decisions, they need to be able to justify those decisions. It's a lot easier when the people you need to justify those decisions to are on roughly the same page.

The best needle mover was profits. It will be the mover this quarter as well as the next. Longs understand this, the Tesla team understands it, and Elon has promised all quarters moving forward to be cash flow positive. My bets are placed.

 

[defc0n]

macros already looking bad for tomorrow yet again

 

[SpaceCash]

macros already looking bad for tomorrow yet again

Bad meaning GOOD because TSLA

 

[tinm]

Stahl repeats that Tesla is "billions in debt" not once but twice. But when speaking of GM or other car companies, never makes a peep about how monumentally in debt they are (sometimes by orders of magnitude compared to Tesla). I can't stand that kind of selective fact presentation. I get the feeling watching Stahl that she learned nothing doing this report. Or that the producer behind the scenes did the work and she's just the face for the camera, brought in at the last minute, reading the questions from a script, not knowing much at all. Such a shame, to assume the audience is a bunch of nincompoops who couldn't handle a serious, thoroughly-researched interview.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After $389, shorts are charting through unknown territory

385.00 was the all-time high closing price, occurring on Sep 18, 2017. Margin calls are made based on the closing price, not the interday high.

On Friday, it went to 379.50 during the day, but it closed below 360. So, no fresh margin calls would be triggered since Thursday's close was above 363.

I don't expect a Monday morning SP spike like we saw with Friday's "mini-squeeze". An there was plenty fresh shorting done on the way down from the peak Friday. So these new positions wouldn't be margin called until somewhere in the 400s, depending on their broker's equity minimums.

Cheers!

 

[SpaceCash]

385.00 was the all-time high closing price, occurring on Sep 18, 2017. Margin calls are made based on the closing price, not the interday high. It could go to 390 during the day, but if it closed below 360, no fresh margin calls would be triggered.

Cheers!

Not necessarily true. One could hold long positions in dropping stocks, which could trigger margin calls for TSLA short positions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not necessarily true. One could hold long positions in dropping stocks, which could trigger margin calls for TSLA short positions.

Uh... huh?

Do you mean for someone holding a long position on margin?

That's not allowed in a retirement account in Canada (nor any short position whatsoever). So I don't know what you're talking about.

Cheers!