TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SteveG3]

[snip...] Or that the producer behind the scenes did the work and she's just the face for the camera, brought in at the last minute, reading the questions from a script, not knowing much at all. Such a shame, to assume the audience is a bunch of nincompoops who couldn't handle a serious, thoroughly-researched interview.

So much of our media is to a very large extent simply an informercial for enormous concentrated wealth attempting to prolong enormous concentrated wealth.

However much of the selection of content was the producer, or was Stahl, neither would remain in the position of determining what airs on the giant corporations massive loudspeakers (6 corporations own over 90% of US media) if they did not keep that determination consistent with the perceived interest of the concentrated wealth that signs their paychecks. It has very little to do with whether they are quite ignorant about Tesla or quite well informed about it... far more to do with their complying with the scope of what is allowed on the CBS infomercial loudspeaker.

That said, CBS did include some compelling responses from Elon, so, despite my concerns, I have some appreciation for what did make it on air tonight.

 

[SpaceCash]

Uh... huh?

Do you mean for someone holding a long position on margin?

That's not allowed in a retirement account in Canada (nor any short position whatsoever). So I don't know what you're talking about.

Cheers!

Oh. Yeah long on margin is totally a thing here in the USA

 

[Gavyne]

I hate watching TV, 14 mins of heavily edited, narrated "interview" and that was supposed to be primetime material. CBS got their way and pushed their own narrative with their commentary. It's crazy how much things haven't changed with television. The Joe Rogan interview was 10x better and you actually got to hear Elon talk.

 

[tivoboy]

Couple comments about the 60 minutes interview:
1. It really seems like it was something forced by PR/Corp communications for Elon to do. I got the feeling he really didn't want to be there, didn't have something he wanted to say, almost like a hostage video. No FUD objective here, but I got the feeling that someone in the company said "hey, we really need to get you out there and do some PR".

2. How on earth did Leslie Stahl (sp) get away with NOT wearing one of the custom black Tesla factory hard hats! I've seen so many videos and been in the factory and I've never seen ANYONE not wearing the required hats. Someone somewhere is probably going to see that and give them some form of OSHA violation. ;-)

It's probably in her contract with CBS that she NEVER EVER no matter the situation will wear ANY hat of any kind.

 

[sparcs]

I don't think that 60 minutes interview turned out very well. It was edited down in a way that made it look unnecessarily combative at a time when Tesla is succeeding.

These general interviews rarely turn out well for Elon. Wish he would stick with the tech/science based interviews as those are usually fantastic.

 

[EVNow]

macros already looking bad for tomorrow yet again

Yes - Nasdaq future is down 0.8%.

My expectation for Monday is a "normal day" - so +/- 1% of Nasdaq.

 

[AZRI11]

Couple comments about the 60 minutes interview:
1. It really seems like it was something forced by PR/Corp communications for Elon to do. I got the feeling he really didn't want to be there, didn't have something he wanted to say, almost like a hostage video. No FUD objective here, but I got the feeling that someone in the company said "hey, we really need to get you out there and do some PR".

2. How on earth did Leslie Stahl (sp) get away with NOT wearing one of the custom black Tesla factory hard hats! I've seen so many videos and been in the factory and I've never seen ANYONE not wearing the required hats. Someone somewhere is probably going to see that and give them some form of OSHA violation. ;-)

It's probably in her contract with CBS that she NEVER EVER no matter the situation will wear ANY hat of any kind.

I think the combination of hair spray and wig qualifies as a hard hat.

 

[EVNow]

I expect some early negative trading fueled buy FUD and then recovery, but I'm probably wrong. I thought the interview was fine, typical Elon speaking truth.

If it goes back to 252 (or 253) quickly in the morning I'm buying Weeklies.

BTW, for experienced investors - what do you use to get real time macro / Tesla news ? I've been using Fidelity app (Advanced Trader Pro) - but it isn't really upto the task. For eg. is there a way to track breaking news on twitter ?

 

[Electroman]

I think there was like literally one week where I actually worked 120 hours and just didn't leave the factory. I didn't even go outside. I wanted to make it clear to the team. They needed to see that however hard it was for them, I would make it worse for me.

WOW !! Mark of a leader..

 

[Remus]

Shorts are celebrating on Twitter about Elon not respecting SEC

As if his 'short seller enrichment' Twitter didn't make it clear.

As if his one sentence contribution to SEC's 4 page explain to the judge didn't make it clear as day.

If this brings another buying opportunity I will take it!

 

[shrspeedblade]

Something I was thinking of shortly after the interview was that Tesla was in dire straits during the Model 3 ramp (as Elon referenced several days ago, although they probably could have raised capital again to survive) they still started the big delivery push in July so as to give the maximum number of U.S. customers possible the tax credit.

That's a heck of a call to make, and one only a guy who was on 60 minutes tonight could make. How many other companies/CEOs out there would actually put themselves in a tighter situation simply to benefit their customers. In our "return value to shareholder" dominated society I can't think of a single one. You can not like Elon, you can think him erratic or eccentric, but the people who struggle to understand and even hate him are those who lacking a good heart themselves are befuddled when confronted by the actions of a person who so evidently possesses one.

 

[wipster]

Couple comments about the 60 minutes interview:
1. It really seems like it was something forced by PR/Corp communications for Elon to do. I got the feeling he really didn't want to be there, didn't have something he wanted to say, almost like a hostage video. No FUD objective here, but I got the feeling that someone in the company said "hey, we really need to get you out there and do some PR".

2. How on earth did Leslie Stahl (sp) get away with NOT wearing one of the custom black Tesla factory hard hats! I've seen so many videos and been in the factory and I've never seen ANYONE not wearing the required hats. Someone somewhere is probably going to see that and give them some form of OSHA violation. ;-)

It's probably in her contract with CBS that she NEVER EVER no matter the situation will wear ANY hat of any kind.

I have seen her wear hard hats before... to tell you the truth I thought they were just baseball caps. Cool to know they're actually hard hats!

 

[wipster]

Forwarded by Elon and from Bill McKibben:
Remarkable new study: Without federal and state subsidies, nearly half of U.S. oil production would be unprofitable. https://t.co/UYXgI0NbyB

 

[Electroman]

That article is more than 12 months old.. depends on your definition of new..

 

[wipster]

That article is more than 12 months old.. depends on your definition of new..

Don't look at me, Elon just forwarded it on Twitter.

 

[sundaymorning]

Shorts are celebrating on Twitter about Elon not respecting SEC

As if his 'short seller enrichment' Twitter didn't make it clear.

As if his one sentence contribution to SEC's 4 page explain to the judge didn't make it clear as day.

If this brings another buying opportunity I will take it!

They’ll celebrate anything they can spin. Give them more yarn, feed into their desperation and knock them down when numbers are released. We are at 5k a week currently btw.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

I expect $2+, there's a number of upsides in Q4 and very few downsides. Cash flow could be a positive surprise as well.

I.e. not as dramatic quarter-to-quarter as Q3, but better than Q3 in every metric, powerfully falsifying the residuals of the short/bear thesis, setting the stage for March 1 convertibles payback with ease, and making both the Moody's upgrade and the S&P 500 inclusion inevitable.

What upsides/downsides do you see that would make it "better than Q3 in every metric"? Here's what's driving my forecast:

Downsides:
- Lower Model 3 ASP (~$3-4k)
- Lower Model 3 margin (MR and less P/AWD)
- Impact of tariffs (mentioned in guidance)
- Higher SGA
- Potential drop in S/X margin due to very high margins in Q3, low sales in China, and Q4 discounting

Upsides:
- 5-10,000 more Model 3 deliveries, which should help (labor hours, depreciation benefit, etc.) offset the margin impact of downsides above
- Continued improvement in production efficiency

 

[Singuy]

"What Changed In A Decade"

 

[sundaymorning]

Forwarded by Elon and from Bill McKibben:
Remarkable new study: Without federal and state subsidies, nearly half of U.S. oil production would be unprofitable. https://t.co/UYXgI0NbyB

So the same guys who are criticizing Tesla for receiving government subsidies have been receiving subsidies themselves for decades? Sounds a bit sleezy, kinda like a car dealership.

 

[sundaymorning]

"What Changed In A Decade"

Speaking of Bob Lutz, where on earth is he right now? Shouldn’t he be cheerleading the Volt 2, You know, the next Tesla killer?