TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[LoveTSLA]

OT


Yep. It is worth remembering that although Putin is pretty evil, he's also pretty stupid. I mean, Putin looks smart compared to Scott Morrison of Australia (holding up lacquered coal in parliament), Theresa May (who is unwilling to quit even though she's just been found in contempt of Parliament), or Donald Trump (who appears to have actual full-blown Narcissistic Personality Disorder, which features the inability to think about consquences which are more than three minutes in the future). But Putin's still pretty dumb.

Xi Jinping's pretty dumb too, and I could count down the dumbass mistakes he's making (his predecessor was smart). We are ruled by idiots.

This is bad. It's the setup which led to World War I -- a bunch of idiots in charge of nearly all the major powers. We have to get the idiots out of power. Macron, at least, isn't a complete idiot, though he's on the wrong side of a major and important issue.

Why you think Xi JinPing is dumb? How much you know about him?

Mod: NO. This is NOT the place to discuss such!

 

[Curt Renz]

Macro drop apparently due to Trump threatening a government shutdown unless he gets his border wall.

 

[Cherry Wine]

How come they get to cover into a falling SP when the rest of the market is up? Doesn't make sense.

I've wondered this before -- is it possible they are playing both sides? Holding shares long that they sell to drop the price, and then using that price drop to cover their short positions?

 

[Curt Renz]

I've wondered this before -- is it possible they are playing both sides? Holding shares long that they sell to drop the price, and then using that price drop to cover their short positions?

 

[M3Rider]

Macro drop apparently due to Trump threatening a government shutdown unless he gets his border wall.

For Christmas? What an OI.
Somebody should threaten impeachment, so that Pence can fix this.

 

[Earlian]

The last three times when I couldn‘t follow, the stock rocketed.

Now, I have to log off till the close again, so get prepared. (Sure, no advice)

 

[KarenRei]

I'm cool with a slow fade. Odds are looking good that I'll snap up my $330 Feb '19s for my mid-$59s limit price at some point during the day Wasn't expecting swapping out my $250s to be a profitable transaction, but I'm betting I'll be locking an effective 6-7% gain on them.

 

[printf42]

Since it's the Christmas season, softly off in the distance, "Do you hear what I hear?"

(SSSSQQQQQUUUUUUUUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZEEEEEEEEEEEE!)



J/k, I expect a slow grind up, but you need to have some fun on days like today!)

I said don’t mention that magic word during market open, see what it did?

 

[EVNow]

How come they get to cover into a falling SP when the rest of the market is up? Doesn't make sense.

They just need to start the SP fall. Then the bots take over - sine bots trade based on momentum. And as SP falls, shorts can cover.

 

[EVNow]

I'm cool with a slow fade. Odds are looking good that I'll snap up my $330 Feb '19s for my mid-$59s limit price at some point during the day Wasn't expecting swapping out my $250s to be a profitable transaction, but I'm betting I'll be locking an effective 6-7% gain on them.

Am I reading this right ? Feb '19 330 calls are 60/61 right now. Why would you buy when the SP is at 368 ? I'm still waiting for the proverbial $353.

ps : I'm no longer considering LEAPs, since yesterday I found out Fidelity doesn't allow me to sell short term covered calls using Leaps. So right now looking at 350 March calls.

 

[Ocelot]

I do wonder whether the price action we are seeing is related to large short positions covering and propping the price. I believe we are at 22 per cent of float sold short currently or so. This is down significantly from a couple months ago. I do not think there will be any type of squeeze. Per cent of float sold short, seems to be gradually decreasing.

 

[mltv]

Domenick on Twitter

Wow. editing from 60min.

 

[KarenRei]

Am I reading this right ? Feb '19 330 calls are 60/61 right now. Why would you buy when the SP is at 368 ? I'm still waiting for the proverbial $353.

Because this isn't being bought with what I'd consider my "free cash" - aka cash gained from selling stock at a planned sell point on a high, with the intent to buy calls at a low. This is simply swapping out an existing call for a different existing call; my spreadsheet doesn't show the $250s as having enough upside anymore, and that my money would be better allocated in higher-strike calls. I planned to do the transaction in a breakeven manner, but then I noticed what looked like a slow fade forming, so I figured, what the heck. Worst case, TSLA rises back up to the price at which I sold my $250s and I do a roughly breakeven on the $250->$330s swap. I'll close it out by the end of the day regardless; the cash from the $250s is burning a hole in my pocket.

I wouldn't have sold my $250 calls at TSLA~=$372 if my goal was feeling assured with a profit My stock sell points now start in the $380s. $353 is very possible on the low end. I may be burning my "free cash" off a bit higher than that, but $353 is definitely a realistic target.

ED: $330 secured. $330 is the new $250

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3

Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted Justin Charron

Seeing additional $TSLA short covering today ... several hundred thousand shares of net covers so far this morning

Ihor Dusaniwsky added,

9:23 AM - 11 Dec 2018
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

The problem with shorters slowly covering their positions over the last few weeks is that there is less and less fuel for a squeeze. I know, the covering has helped SP through a bad macro environment, and the level of shorting is still high. But wouldn’t most of us want to see all shorters heading for the exit at the same time, instead of the current situation where they are leaving in orderly fashion.

 

[ZeApelido]

Could be worse - you could live in Sweden or Switzerland. Americans are always mixing those two up.

It was quite amusing to tell people I was moving to Sweden for grad school and watch their faces contort thinking about 1) What the heck would you move to Sweden? 2) Wait, where is that? 3) Do they all have blonde hair?

But not as sad as telling Swedes in 2004 that George Bush was going to get re-elected. Those faces were really perplexed.

 

[shrspeedblade]

The problem with shorters slowly covering their positions over the last few weeks is that there is less and less fuel for a squeeze. I know, the covering has helped SP through a bad macro environment, and the level of shorting is still high. But wouldn’t most of us want to see all shorters heading for the exit at the same time, instead of the current situation where they are leaving in orderly fashion.

The smart ones are slipping out quietly, leaving the dumb ones holding the bag.
That bag will no doubt be quite a bit smaller, but will still bite to a degree when it blows up.

I'd love to see a big squeeze, but I've told myself to be fine with a slow, upward grind as well. In the long run it's probably more sustainable.

 

[anthonyj]

The problem with shorters slowly covering their positions over the last few weeks is that there is less and less fuel for a squeeze. I know, the covering has helped SP through a bad macro environment, and the level of shorting is still high. But wouldn’t most of us want to see all shorters heading for the exit at the same time, instead of the current situation where they are leaving in orderly fashion.

Believe me, more than enough shorts to squeeze. It’s good to see consolidation up here in the mountains... never thought I’d buy high again and feel good about it

 

[Cherry Wine]

Tariffs confirmed down to 15% per WSJ. New news?

EDIT: China Agrees to Reduce Tariffs on U.S. Autos

 

[KarenRei]

The problem with shorters slowly covering their positions over the last few weeks is that there is less and less fuel for a squeeze. I know, the covering has helped SP through a bad macro environment, and the level of shorting is still high. But wouldn’t most of us want to see all shorters heading for the exit at the same time, instead of the current situation where they are leaving in orderly fashion.

Meh, a slow squeeze is good enough. BTW you can thank the macros for that a lot. Even if TSLA were holding steady, the decline in macros could force a margin call on an already stretched TSLA short position if the individual owns long positions in other stocks (as most do).

 

[Buckminster]

Poll on short squeeze date:
Which comes first; Shexit or Brexit?