TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Norway update:
today Norway will surpass the 30000 Tesla milestone!
That's quite an achievement.
Daily sales rate is good, 2018 will probably be on par with 2017, maybe slightly higher if the rate is stable.
It will be much higher if rate will skyrocket in the last two weeks of the month like it usually does EoQ (which is also EoY).
I mean, last year they sold 287 cars in one day!, on December 19; yesterday they sold 84, there's room for improvement ;-)

 

[cheshire cat]

American Ambassador to the European Union and former businessman and financier Gordon Sondland has told Politico that he finds the EU to be ‘utterly obstructionist’ on negotiating freer trade between the two blocs. Accusing the EU of deliberately stalling trade negotiations, Sondland said that his joke today is “if I ask someone at the EU what time it is, the answer is ‘no’.”

Having dealt with the EU now for more than half a year, his verdict is cutting…

“The Commission in particular is out of touch with reality. They are off in a cloud, regulating to the heart’s content — and regulating some things that don’t even need to be regulated, because they haven’t even occurred yet — while stifling growth and innovation.”
' nuff said .???

 

[CorneliusXX]

Is this a precursor to the impending Moody's upgrade of Tesla corporate debt as well?

While these bonds are in a separate rating system, Moody's would obviously not rating these investment grade if they thought Tesla corporate debt was 'junk', right?

They could have ratings IN their securitisation that are completely different to their corporate rating as these ratings are backed by secured assets - loans and leases. Many start-up lenders that have no corporate rating at all still have their ABS bonds rated AAA.

 

[gora321]

Jaguar is allegedly switching to them (Electrek link): Jaguar reportedly signs important 5 GWh cylindrical battery contract with Samsung for upcoming EVs

It is not a surprise. Magna (Austria) where I-pace is produced had a Division called Magna batteries system and it was sold to Samsung SDI. So they are very connected. Both location are very close in Graz (Austria) region.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Rumor has it that Samsung has made chips for Tesla?

I don't remember where I saw the rumor originate, but you can google various mentions such as : Tesla to make its own custom SoC (System on Chip) for self-driving cars built by Samsung, report says - this only states that Samsung is working with them.

However, the mention of it more recently seems to be in the context of Samsung hiring for autonomous systems development Samsung scouting talents for autonomous driving - I doubt that Tesla is granting Samsung a license to their development, so Samsung would need to do their own ASIC work. Though it's not impossible that they worked some kind of deal where Samsung eats some of the development costs (i.e. covers the costs of the first few spins of silicon) and in exchange Samsung gets to use Tesla's chip, it seems unlikely.

Samsung is just likely jumping on the latest tech bandwagon, unrelated to their work with Tesla. They are a major conglomerate after all.

Separately, the rumor I've seen sometime in the past months is that the HW3 neural net chips are being fabbed at Samsung's Austin fab, which would mean on some flavor of 14nm process node as that is the only node they're doing in Austin. But I can't seem to google any actual source for that. I'm almost certain I saw it posted on TMC someplace, but I'm not sure - probably in one of the relevant threads.

 

[lklundin]

You may well be correct! We Europeans tend to stick one more multiple in the chain, Milliard, between Million and Billion. That can often lead to misunderstandings. (Billiards are off my table ... )

With their fondness for abbreviating also the Americans have taken some liking to the metric prefixes (e.g. a weekly production rate of 7k).

It really removes ambiguity if these prefixes are also used for monetary units.

Accountants will probably still want to write that the Model 3 base price is $ 35k and that Tesla's evaluation is $ 63G (still far from AAPL at $ 0.8T), but it still beats all the kinds of more or less random notation that people with different backgrounds (trade or nationality) use to denote the different powers of 10.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

American Ambassador to the European Union and former businessman and financier Gordon Sondland has told Politico that he finds the EU to be ‘utterly obstructionist’ on negotiating freer trade between the two blocs. Accusing the EU of deliberately stalling trade negotiations, Sondland said that his joke today is “if I ask someone at the EU what time it is, the answer is ‘no’.”

Having dealt with the EU now for more than half a year, his verdict is cutting…

“The Commission in particular is out of touch with reality. They are off in a cloud, regulating to the heart’s content — and regulating some things that don’t even need to be regulated, because they haven’t even occurred yet — while stifling growth and innovation.”
' nuff said .???

I know Brexit has implications for the market. But this? Seriously? Please keep politics out of this thread.

 

[Fact Checking]

Separately, the rumor I've seen sometime in the past months is that the HW3 neural net chips are being fabbed at Samsung's Austin fab, which would mean on some flavor of 14nm process node as that is the only node they're doing in Austin. But I can't seem to google any actual source for that. I'm almost certain I saw it posted on TMC someplace, but I'm not sure - probably in one of the relevant threads.

14 nm would definitely be the logical choice: it's the smallest process size AFAIK that is widely available for contract fabbing.

10 nm is apparently still somewhat problematic even to Intel and generally not contracted out AFAIK. Tesla would be wise to not combine the risks of introducing an entirely new chip architecture and a relatively fresh and occasionally problematic fab process - i.e. they should emulate the Tick-Tock development model of Intel.

 

[Causalien]

Criminal liability doesn't necessarily stop with Mr. Tripp though: if he was aided and abetted by members of the media, for example by a certain Linette Lopez at "Business Insider" who appears to have used Tripp as a primary source frequently, then the liability - and Tesla's ability to collect damages - might extend to much more wealthy entities as well.

If such evidence emerges Tesla could also amend their complaint with RICO claims and ask for triple damages - i.e. 500 million dollars (!). It would also give Tesla the right to discovery from Ms. Lopez and Business Insider in general, request identifying transaction details of short sellers, and generally pierce the corporate veil of underlying monetary interests that conspired against Tesla in a potentially criminal fashion.

So if Business Insider, or short sellers, or Tesla competitors did something shady and criminal, and it can be proven by Tesla, or Tripp flips on Lopez and others and delivers evidence of a criminal conspiracy, this could be the "Terry Gene Bollea (a.k.a. Hulk Hogan) vs. Gawker Media" moment of Tesla FUD spreading media outlets - and/or of short sellers and other entities criminally connected to Mr. Tripp.

Beyond being able to collect damages, Tesla would also set a precedent of aggressively going after those who are trying to harm them.

Outfits like 60 minites hasn't realized that the sentiment has shifted and are still trying to please the "bash tsla" crowd. But if you look at the potential culprit behind everything, they are either in a tight situation or getting margin called on other assets.

They also failed to take into account that tsla is generating income. Meaning it can now support multiple sustained multi year litigation. Proof is the hiring of the new firm. Anoyher quarter of billions in revenue should nail this impression down.

We are also seeing how these "edited" news neither moved the stock nor sentimen. The "irrational and crazy Elon" narrative have lost its persuasiveness just like the old and retired "tesla caught on fire" news.

I am all for tesla using a part of its income to seek revenge and sue these ppl. Afterall, these ppl did cause real emotional stress to the majority of tesla owners. Bonus if they can somehow nap spiegal and his backer. For there is none more obvious than that guy who is just pretending to be a hedgie, but is actually a mouth piece for shorts.

 

[Causalien]

14 nm would definitely be the logical choice: it's the smallest process size AFAIK that is widely available for contract fabbing.

10 nm is apparently still somewhat problematic even to Intel and generally not contracted out AFAIK. Tesla would be wise to not combine the risks of introducing an entirely new chip architecture and a relatively fresh and occasionally problematic fab process - i.e. they should emulate the Tick-Tock development model of Intel.

10nm is problemic to intel, but not to samsung or tsmc. But ya. 14nm is more mature and old tech so is probably discounted. So we know at least that there can still be a doubling of performance by going from 14nm to 7nm through tsmc.

 

[AlexS]

I don't remember where I saw the rumor originate, but you can google various mentions such as : Tesla to make its own custom SoC (System on Chip) for self-driving cars built by Samsung, report says - this only states that Samsung is working with them.
.

I don't get it, why Samsung, why not to go directly to Qualcomm. SoC-s for Samsung are made by Qualcomm.

 

[anon]

I don't get it, why Samsung, why not to go directly to Qualcomm. SoC-s for Samsung are made by Qualcomm.

Qualcomm doesn't actually make anything. They design chips, but do not have a fab. Tesla designed this chip and Samsung have a fab (only other choices are TSMC, Global Foundries, Intel, and I feel there might be one other I have missed).

 

[NicoV]

I don't get it, why Samsung, why not to go directly to Qualcomm. SoC-s for Samsung are made by Qualcomm.

Samsung is probably only in play here as a chip foundry, nothing more. If they weren’t, the news articles about it would mention TMSC or GlobalFoundries, and they don’t.

This is totally unrelated to Soc’s found in samsung phones, which may be Qualcomm socs, which probably uses TMSC, Globalfoundries or Samsung as chip foundry.

 

[Fact Checking]

I am all for tesla using a part of its income to seek revenge and sue these ppl.

BTW., I don't think it is (or should be) about "revenge", it's a long overdue act of deterrence.

Tesla was IMHO fighting FUD and outright fraud of short sellers and competitors with kid gloves - while in reality Tesla has every right to be outraged at the libel and damage to the brand, damage to customers and investors, and they have every right to seek compensatory and punitive damages and the law is fully on their side.

Tesla was writing blog posts about the 'Tesla Death Watch' fraudsters who apparently filed fraudulent complaints with the NHTSA - Tesla should have sued the hell out of them and their enablers instead.

I think the eye opening moment for Elon was when the FUD got so bad to sic the SEC on them: the SEC, a federal agency tasked with detecting and fighting fraud cited short-seller false narratives in their legal complaint - i.e. the SEC got conned/defrauded by short sellers themselves (!)... That was the point when Elon and Tesla lawyered up seriously I think.

Tesla should emulate Apple here too: Apple is a bulldog when it comes to protective litigation.

Tesla should throw not just the book on them but the whole library as well, to make sure the message is received. Once Tesla is done with Tripp, Lopez and any others, future Tripp's and Lopez's might think twice before attacking Tesla.

"Free speech" does not mean and should not mean "free of consequences".

 

[KarenRei]

Criminal liability doesn't necessarily stop with Mr. Tripp though: if he was aided and abetted by members of the media, for example by a certain Linette Lopez at "Business Insider" who appears to have used Tripp as a primary source frequently, then the liability - and Tesla's ability to collect damages - might extend to much more wealthy entities as well.

If such evidence emerges Tesla could also amend their complaint with RICO claims and ask for triple damages - i.e. 500 million dollars (!). It would also give Tesla the right to discovery from Ms. Lopez and Business Insider in general, request identifying transaction details of short sellers, and generally pierce the corporate veil of underlying monetary interests that conspired against Tesla in a potentially criminal fashion.

So if Business Insider, or short sellers, or Tesla competitors did something shady and criminal, and it can be proven by Tesla, or Tripp flips on Lopez and others and delivers evidence of a criminal conspiracy, this could be the "Terry Gene Bollea (a.k.a. Hulk Hogan) vs. Gawker Media" moment of Tesla FUD spreading media outlets - and/or of short sellers and other entities criminally connected to Mr. Tripp.

Beyond being able to collect damages, Tesla would also set a precedent of aggressively going after those who are trying to harm them.

First off, IANAL. That said, the key question seems to be solicitation. Journalists are generally protected when publishing illegally-acquired documents that are in the public interest. Bartnicki v. Vopper laid out three criterea

1) The media outlet played no role in the illegal interception
2) The media received the information lawfully
3) The issue was a matter of public concern

#1 is the most important: journalists may not solicit crimes in order to report on them. E.g. if Tripp went to Lopez and said, "Hey, I just took these documents from Tesla", and Lopez responded, "This is a matter the public should know about" and published them, that would seem to meet the standard above. But if Tripp said to Lopez, "I'm a disgruntled Tesla employee with access to all kinds of information that could make Tesla look bad" and Lopez said "Could you get me documents about X and Y?", and Tripp provided them, Lopez would be soliciting a crime.

IMHO, we don't know nearly enough about what went down to know if she is at serious risk for a solicitation prosecution or not. But discovery could be quite fun.

 

[NicoV]

I feel there might be one other I have missed).

UMC or SMIC maybe. Not that it matters.

 

[Beltsbear]

I don't get it, why Samsung, why not to go directly to Qualcomm. SoC-s for Samsung are made by Qualcomm.

Samsung uses Qualcomm IP but Qualcomm does not physically make much for Samsung. It makes no sense to say that Tesla should go directly to Qualcomm. Qualcomm is nearly fabless.

 

[NicoV]

Premarket at $371

 

[KarenRei]

Here's what would be great to see play out with Business Insider (who we'll recall made a full-throated defense of Lopez when her cooperation with Tripp was challenged by Musk):

"Peavy v. WFAA-TV Inc.: The media outlet was approached by an informant claiming that he had information about a local news issue. The media outlet refused to use the information without further documentation, encouraged the informant to obtain that, and advised him on the process (which amounted to an illegal wiretapping). The media outlet was found to have advised and encouraged the illegal acquisition of materials, which it then took possession of and published. The court characterized this as “undisputed participation.” The informant and the media outlet were found to be liable for the illegal acquisition."

Tripp may not have $167M onhand, but I'd wager that BI's combined assets are at least a double-digit percentage of that.

ED: "In 2015 Axel Springer SE acquired 88% of the stake in Business Insider Inc. for $343 million (€306 million)." Hmm, if Lopez solicited this, Tesla might actually see its $167M after all

 

[avoigt]

Premarket at $371

Belgium ordering supposed to be open today. Let us know once and if happened.