TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

OT

well... it looks like I'm going to be getting my l3mr on Saturday and the nearest Tesla store/center is ~100 miles away. I generally like your advice, but I disagree with you here. Maybe I'll see it your way once I'm an owner, we'll see.

100 miles away would be an improvement here. Tesla lists 2 service centers for all of NY state, both over 200 miles away. It's not surprising with only 2 service centers for the whole state that they would be overwhelmed. Also, the US has apparently annexed China and made it the 51st state. MAGA https://www.tesla.com/findus/list/services/United%20States

 

[cheshire cat]

It depends on the treatment of a customer who does not have the 78k followers on Twitter that John Papa has.

Wow is he " famous" ?

 

[lklundin]

computers I guess?

You are very clever, but it is turtles all the way down.

 

[SageBrush]

Criminal liability doesn't necessarily stop with Mr. Tripp though: if he was aided and abetted by members of the media, for example by a certain Linette Lopez at "Business Insider" who appears to have used Tripp as a primary source frequently, then the liability - and Tesla's ability to collect damages - might extend to much more wealthy entities as well.

If such evidence emerges Tesla could also amend their complaint with RICO claims and ask for triple damages - i.e. 500 million dollars (!). It would also give Tesla the right to discovery from Ms. Lopez and Business Insider in general, request identifying transaction details of short sellers, and generally pierce the corporate veil of underlying monetary interests that conspired against Tesla in a potentially criminal fashion.

So if Business Insider, or short sellers, or Tesla competitors did something shady and criminal, and it can be proven by Tesla, or Tripp flips on Lopez and others and delivers evidence of a criminal conspiracy, this could be the "Terry Gene Bollea (a.k.a. Hulk Hogan) vs. Gawker Media" moment of Tesla FUD spreading media outlets - and/or of short sellers and other entities criminally connected to Mr. Tripp.

Beyond being able to collect damages, Tesla would also set a precedent of aggressively going after those who are trying to harm them.

I'll take that as my xmas present RIGHT NOW

 

[Joe F]

OT, sort of:

Yes, TMC went down, BUT, I didn't mind as the animation was hilarious!

First and last frame below. Should have captured a video.

 

[Unpilot]

OT, sort of:

Yes, TMC went down, BUT, I didn't mind as the animation was hilarious!

First and last frame below. Should have captured a video.

View attachment 360357

View attachment 360359

Yeah I watched that for a bit...pretty funny.

He needed this guy

 

[abasile]

Here's a strategy idea to satiate your gambling tendencies (I know, b/c I have them myself)….. hold your shares and don't look at them until you no longer believe in the value of TSLA stock. With a separate amount of cash equal to say... 2.78% of the amount of the stock you sold at 370 and failed to buy back at 360...buy puts at equivalent points in time as when you originally sold for 370.... then cover and buy calls at equivalent points in time as when you wanted to repurchase the stock for 360.

I hear what you're saying, but I'm not the one who sold at $370 with the goal of buying back at $360.

My occasional TSLA sales have had more to do with incrementally reducing the risk associated with having so many of my eggs in one basket. However, if the price should happen to subsequently drop, then I may be an opportunistic buyer. I understand that others use options to reduce risk, though.

 

[ZachF]

I'm gonna do my part and take a walk to get some lunch

 

[printf42]

Seems today is another low volume manipulation day, see that 29k volume knock SP down $1.2 at 11:55AM?

 

[Tslynk67]

It depends on the treatment of a customer who does not have the 78k followers on Twitter that John Papa has.

I think it's just luck that it pops on Elon feed when he happens to be looking at it, no?

 

[Chocochip]

Santa is 100% a real thing.

Sure! It's just that most of us call him "Elon".

 

[humbaba]

Looking at NASDAQ >2% and $TSLA loitering in the "I'm still green" range has me thinking. If I was a short and actually convinced of $TSLA's eventual failure, these (relatively) high prices are good points to sell short at, which has the pleasant side effect of suppressing $TSLA.

But outside of that, I don't think the large shorts are only shorting $TSLA, there's too much money to be made off of the volatility. Say you manage a fund that is 20% short $TSLA. When the stock price drops (whether or not it is the result of manipulation its simple fact that $TSLA is volatile) you buy cover and buy long. When it goes up again you sell short and long which accentuates the dip.

I'm just having a hard time seeing how this behavior would ever stop. In the end the large short doesn't even have to believe that Tesla will fail, even if it started out that way. Essentially the short is monetizing the swings and while the activities would accentuate the swings I'm not so certain that they cause them.

My point is that the short covering may be limited to what they can actually manage with the aforementioned cycling and it won't matter how high the stock price goes they will still be with us.

Sure, some retail shorts will lose lots of money, but the problem with @ihors3 reckoning of short losses is that it is based on estimates of daily net shorting and inherently cannot measure short activity during the day. Yes, he gets word from various sources as to such activity, but it is more qualitative than quantitative. In other words, it isn't clear that his numbers would capture the above unless the cycle was longer than a day.

I'd love to see shorting drop to <10% of float, but I just don't see it. Which is aggravating because, even if it isn't clear the amount by which the shorting keeps the stock price depressed I think it is clear that it does (again, a quantitative vs qualitative analysis). And this is part of my thesis about $TSLA being undervalued (though certainly not the only) which -- if I'm right -- means that the undervaluation will be perpetual.

Naturally I could be proved wrong by the future, but I'm curious what holes exist in my reasoning.

 

[Mobius484]

Sale!

Dang!

So quick...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Another thought on the disparity between the NASDAQ and TSLA this morning is that, since Q3 ER, TSLA is up approximately 25% while the NASDAQ is where it was in late October, and is coming off of more recent lows in November. There's more upside to be had elsewhere.

EDIT: I should clarify, there's more perceived upside relative to recent lows. I obviously think the upside with TSLA is unbeatable.

 

[Hock1]

Criminal liability doesn't necessarily stop with Mr. Tripp though: if he was aided and abetted by members of the media, for example by a certain Linette Lopez at "Business Insider" who appears to have used Tripp as a primary source frequently, then the liability - and Tesla's ability to collect damages - might extend to much more wealthy entities as well.

If such evidence emerges Tesla could also amend their complaint with RICO claims and ask for triple damages - i.e. 500 million dollars (!). It would also give Tesla the right to discovery from Ms. Lopez and Business Insider in general, request identifying transaction details of short sellers, and generally pierce the corporate veil of underlying monetary interests that conspired against Tesla in a potentially criminal fashion.

So if Business Insider, or short sellers, or Tesla competitors did something shady and criminal, and it can be proven by Tesla, or Tripp flips on Lopez and others and delivers evidence of a criminal conspiracy, this could be the "Terry Gene Bollea (a.k.a. Hulk Hogan) vs. Gawker Media" moment of Tesla FUD spreading media outlets - and/or of short sellers and other entities criminally connected to Mr. Tripp.

Beyond being able to collect damages, Tesla would also set a precedent of aggressively going after those who are trying to harm them.

As soon as I heard about Tripp, before he was identified and before the lawsuits, I knew what was going on. You are absolutely right on with your analysis. There is no question in my mind that culpability in this scheme goes way beyond Tripp. Other than Business insider, when names are being named, Bloomberg, CNBC and number of others come to mind as possibilities. Having been personally involved in a RICO action (I'm not a lawyer), I can vouch for the applicability of adding RICO to the complaint. Beyond the media, how about the brokers?
Goldman Sachs and other large lenders of shares to shorts----think they've ever helped the stock go down (manipulation) for the shorts?---or, perhaps let naked-shorted shares stay undelivered against Reg SHO regulations?
There is a world of hurt waiting to happen to a number of well-known people and organizations, if somehow discovery proceeds. This is why, in an earlier post, I implied that Tripp may be better off (i.e., stay alive), coming back to the states and name names under the protection of law enforcement.

And, how about the potential action against the SEC? As soon as I saw the dog and pony that the SEC put on TV and heard the complaint, I knew the shorts had a hand in the language of the complaint. I believe Elon absolutely knows this as fact. When he called the SEC the "Shortsellers Enrichment Commission", it wasn't just words said in anger.

Thank you for your insights.

 

[mrwuffles]

I'd love to see shorting drop to <10% of float, but I just don't see it. Which is aggravating because, even if it isn't clear the amount by which the shorting keeps the stock price depressed I think it is clear that it does (again, a quantitative vs qualitative analysis). And this is part of my thesis about $TSLA being undervalued (though certainly not the only) which -- if I'm right -- means that the undervaluation will be perpetual.

Naturally I could be proved wrong by the future, but I'm curious what holes exist in my reasoning.

Agree with you that @ihors MTM losses aren't the best estimate; I prefer just to look at % of float shorted or SIR.

However, I don't think the undervaluation will be perpetual. Shares shorted will eventually decrease. APPL for a long time was the highest shorted company by volume & $. Not sure where it ranks now, but its SIR is only 1%. Before Jobs came back, they were on the brink. Everyone though Apple products were stupid and the company was doomed. There are still a lot of haters, but I'm not even sure any long-term institutional shorts are still shorting APPL. Once TSLA qualifies for S&P, I imagine SIR will go down a lot. Once every big car company is pushing out EVs and TSLA likely has best loyalty/highest profit margins (like APPL does for phones), it'll likely go down further. Not to mention all the other energy products that are commoditized when sold by any other company.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - this morning: A ‘Steady’ Tesla Could Attract New Investors to the Stock

 

[Nocturnal]

Agree with you that @ihors MTM losses aren't the best estimate; I prefer just to look at % of float shorted or SIR.

However, I don't think the undervaluation will be perpetual. Shares shorted will eventually decrease. APPL for a long time was the highest shorted company by volume & $. Not sure where it ranks now, but its SIR is only 1%. Before Jobs came back, they were on the brink. Everyone though Apple products were stupid and the company was doomed. There are still a lot of haters, but I'm not even sure any long-term institutional shorts are still shorting APPL. Once TSLA qualifies for S&P, I imagine SIR will go down a lot. Once every big car company is pushing out EVs and TSLA likely has best loyalty/highest profit margins (like APPL does for phones), it'll likely go down further. Not to mention all the other energy products that are commoditized when sold by any other company.

By definition it can't be perpetual. The world is full of smart people with big checkbooks.

 

[JRod0802]

Latest short report on NASDAQ for 11/30 settlement is 27.4 million shares. This is down from 28.8 million in the 11/15 report.

Thanks for this! Does anyone know of a place to find a graph or chart of short interest over time? The best I could find was here, but it only goes back one year. I was hoping for a history back to 2010.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[humbaba]

By definition it can't be perpetual. The world is full of smart people with big checkbooks.

My argument is that (some of) these smart people realize they can make scads of money by swing trading $TSLA using shorting as part of the strategy. Where is the incentive to stop?

[edit to add: that is, the volatility is what makes shorting/covering $TSLA profitable so decreasing the volatility would end the abuse -- but at this point it seems to me to be in a feedback loop where the abuse of the volatility sustains the volatility.]