TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

This is what scares me about current market. But I am long TSLA and AAPL. I'm absolutely horrible at picking tops so I've weathered collapses before. I won't sell on the way down. But it just gets much tougher as I get older.

If TSLA meets/exceeds M3 ramp, it might be one of the high growth stocks that could negate S&P drop and might also come away unscratched.

 

[Starno]

A little warning guys. The overall market looks pretty shaky to me. High beta stocks like TSLA just do not do well if the S & P decides to decline 20%. Please keep this in mind. Stocks always go higher than you expect in bull markets...and stocks always go lower than you expect in bear markets.

Please consider the rally that took place since Trump took office in the market overall. Imagine going back to the levels the market was at when Trump got elected. You remember, the level where credible analysis was showing the market as highly overvalued...the level where many people where saying that Trump's election would be the catalyst for the long over due correction. Keep in mind where the FED is right now. A 4 trillion balance sheet that they have clearly stated they are in the process of shrinking. This is a tough headwind when combined with interest rate increases that are certain to continue for now. Watch the leverage and try to keep some powder dry.

There is no shortage of after the fact explanations to be had for any market move...and of course, it is always so obvious! How did I not see it! - face in palm. (sarc)

The best explanation for TSLA drop today...Market is shaky and TSLA had just run 50 points. Really don't need to try and explain much past that. I would be surprised if we don't retest some of the levels we were at just last week.

True, we're in the late stage of the cycle but we're not at the implosion part yet. There's way too much money still kept in cash by institutions. I think the market will take off once fear around war trade settle.
I can see 12-18 months of strong growth. Then a little sideways. And finally the burst.
We're not there yet.

 

[bdy0627]

A little warning guys. The overall market looks pretty shaky to me. High beta stocks like TSLA just do not do well if the S & P decides to decline 20%. Please keep this in mind. Stocks always go higher than you expect in bull markets...and stocks always go lower than you expect in bear markets.

Please consider the rally that took place since Trump took office in the market overall. Imagine going back to the levels the market was at when Trump got elected. You remember, the level where credible analysis was showing the market as highly overvalued...the level where many people where saying that Trump's election would be the catalyst for the long over due correction. Keep in mind where the FED is right now. A 4 trillion balance sheet that they have clearly stated they are in the process of shrinking. This is a tough headwind when combined with interest rate increases that are certain to continue for now. Watch the leverage and try to keep some powder dry.

There is no shortage of after the fact explanations to be had for any market move...and of course, it is always so obvious! How did I not see it! - face in palm. (sarc)

The best explanation for TSLA drop today...Market is shaky and TSLA had just run 50 points. Really don't need to try and explain much past that. I would be surprised if we don't retest some of the levels we were at just last week.

Thanks for the warning. Good points and suggestions. I'm concerned about the market. TSLA at this point is really at the mercy of the market. Retest of last week's levels began today with a repeat breach of the low $290s. Several respected traders are suggesting low $280s will be tested next. That appears likely to me at this point. Who knows if that will hold up. I sold quite a few of my June calls today when we hit $309. In hindsight, wish I had sold more of them. I will only be adding shares as we drop until the bottom becomes clear. I suspect I'm not the only one hesitant to add as shorts pile on and some longs take profits or exit to avoid further losses. This move feels technical and not about worsening sentiment. That doesn't protect you from harsh losses if you are leveraged.

 

[madodel]

Unless you think you can outspend the Kochs of the world it's a waste of money.

Wish we could follow the money. This is all about delegitimizing and attacking Tesla to destroy the mission. While we know who the usual suspects are, can we ever actually find out where all this money is really coming from?

 

[Starno]

Wish we could follow the money. This is all about delegitimizing and attacking Tesla to destroy the mission. While we know who the usual suspects are, can we ever actually find out where all this money is really coming from?

I don't know, but I don't think it's necessary.
At the end the truth always prevails.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I don't know, but I don't think it's necessary.
At the end the truth always prevails.

Very true. And, in investing, math is truth.

 

[defc0n]

Very true. And, in investing, math is truth.

Oh please. You can see the math for today or past quarters, or near upcoming quarters with the (wrong) assumption of static revenue and spending, but math alone can never tell you the future performance of a company. Investing is largely predicting future demand. I’m pretty sure you know this, or at least I’d hope you would.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Oh please. You can see the math for today or past quarters, or near upcoming quarters with the (wrong) assumption of static revenue and spending, but math alone can never tell you the future performance of a company. Investing is largely predicting future demand. I’m pretty sure you know this, or at least I’d hope you would.

Investing is predicting future PROFITS would be more correct. And math provides us with plenty of tools for analyzing a dynamic future - extrapolation, probability and game theory to name just a few.

 

[defc0n]

Investing is predicting future PROFITS would be more correct. And math provides us with plenty of tools for analyzing a dynamic future - extrapolation, probability and game theory to name just a few.

Uh huh. In the end, you’re still coming up with speculative assumptions, more often than not that will be wildly incorrect, especially for growing companies. Math can not predict the future success of a company.

Unless you assume quantum mechanics are deterministic, and are able to observe, measure, and then predict all atomic interactions in the universe.

Truth be told, I am a Bohmian...

 

[viridi]

Xi Jinping just gave a really great speech at Boao. Made comments about easing restrictions on foreign auto makers. Hopefully, this will be a relief for Tesla shareholders (fear of this speech and its possible escalation of trade tensions likely one of the reasons for the decline today).

 

[Mike Smith]

"This year we will significantly lower the import tariffs for vehicles"
-Xi Jinping

Big day coming tomorrow!

 

[elasalle]

"This year we will significantly lower the import tariffs for vehicles"
-Xi Jinping

Big day coming tomorrow!

agree a lot of FUD past few days was how TSLA was going to be the most impacted in these tariff wars

 

[bdy0627]

Hopefully this stimulates some good volume tomorrow to minimize the ability of shorts to control the movement. They were clearly back in control today.

 

[Richgoogol]

Damn it!! Should have gone all in before closing today!!! I hope tomorrow we’ll still get some entry opportunities below $300.

 

[Reciprocity]

agree a lot of FUD past few days was how TSLA was going to be the most impacted in these tariff wars

They were right, just wrong about the direction of the impact.

 

[bdy0627]

Damn it!! Should have gone all in before closing today!!! I hope tomorrow we’ll still get some entry opportunities below $300.

Knowing the TSLA shorts, they'll double down to try to control the early gains tomorrow morning, pushing traders elsewhere. I think you will get that chance to get in below $310. But I hope I'm wrong about that.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Knowing the TSLA shorts, they'll double down to try to control the early gains tomorrow morning, pushing traders elsewhere. I think you will get that chance to get in below $310. But I hope I'm wrong

Doesn’t matter what the price is. I would get in as it’s going to be a good day to own $TSLA!!!

 

[JesseIan]

Tomorrow is going to rule. (I hope)

 

[generalenthu]

How is this good news for Tesla? More exports to China is more loss as Tesla loses money on every car it makes.

And the horrors of making and selling in China. It will only help Tesla lose ludicrous amounts of money. Game, set, and match to the shorts.

 

[dw4ngg]

How is this good news for Tesla? More exports to China is more loss as Tesla loses money on every car it makes.

And the horrors of making and selling in China. It will only help Tesla lose ludicrous amounts of money. Game, set, and match to the shorts.

I was abt to respond but realized you might be being facetious.