TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Chinese President Xi might announce these tonight at Boao. You can search it online. Some are based on google translate.

1. China will accelerate the opening up of the financial sector to the outside world, relax or cancel restrictions on foreign-capital shares of banks, securities, funds, futures, and financial asset management companies.

2. The manufacturing industry is opening up to the outside world and be inline with international trading rules and regulations. Open market access for general manufacturing, and expansion of telecommunications, medical care, education, and other areas open.

3. It will expand the degree of opening up in some areas of the service industry, adopt a national treatment (treat foreign businesses as same as domestic businesses) plus negative list management model.

4. Will increase the protection of property rights, especially intellectual property rights;

5. It will expand imports, gradually reduce tariffs on imported cars.

6. Will have more policy support in the direction of the new economic investment and financing;

7. Will reduce domestic corporate tax burden, especially high-end manufacturing tax, including semiconductors, integrated circuits.

I will clarify, these are not the result of recent trade pressure from the US. China expressed the intention to do the above things quite a few months ago. I believe they genuinely planed to do it . Their new guy He Liu who is in charge of economy said they would change so much in 2018 that it will surprise a lot of people... Unfortunetly now they can't just kneel down and do it when someone slap on their face.

The only item that is slightly negative is #5. US wants them immediately drop the 25% car tariff. Regardless, I think in the end they will allow Tesla to open factory based on #2 and #3.

The chance that Xi takes an irrational tough stance is near zero. He has a stable mind. China will open up, they have decided on that path before the recent trade dispute, they are unlikely to change course.

China is doing the right things. Here is the exact wording from Chinese President Xi:

"Number 1, we will greatly open the market, ...... next step we will quickly loosen the rules on foreign investment share limitation especially on car (manufacturing) businesses."

"Number 4, This year, we will significantly reduce tariff on imported cars,......

"I want to stress, all of these important actions...... we will act on them ASAP...... earlier is better than later, faster is better than slower, so it will benefit Chinese business and people ASAP, and benefit world business and people ASAP."

My interpretation is that Xi specifically addressed the two requests that Elon raised regarding 100% owned car factory, and the import tax on cars. When Xi said these things publicly, they will happen.

I can't predict short term stock moves. I think Tesla is a strong buy and hold, probably the best buy and hold stock. I keep adding whenever I have cash. This is a significant turning point. Elon must be extremely happy right now. Now Tesla can participate in the Olympic games without lead shoes.

If you still have any doubt, the trade war is over. Tesla is the biggest winner. In the long run, both US and China will benefit from the outcome.

 

[SteveG3]

agree a lot of FUD past few days was how TSLA was going to be the most impacted in these tariff wars

FUD is FUD, expect headlines tomorrow along the lines of

"More Bad News for Tesla, Flood of Competition to Enter World's Largest Auto Market as China to Drop Barriers to Exports from Global Auto Behemoths"

Already on the cusp of being crushed by a wave of new EV entrants to the US and Europe, Tesla's prospects in China have fallen under a dark cloud as...


I'm not simply joking here. I can't predict exactly what the spin will be, but, for much of the coverage expect some seeking of an angle of how to present a concern about all this and stretch that into being a big focal point.

It's not about the bulk of the media believing "stupid" things, or being "crazy" for believing contradictory things, it's about pursuing their assigned tasks. If that brings along with it selling "stupid" ideas to the public, and using Orwellian double speak, then that's what's brought along. It's not like the writers, editors, and talking heads of these outlets are concerned there will be some big piece of investigative journalism shining a light on what they do. It's like a police force being bought- they're not so likely to arrest themselves.

 

[TradingInvest]

Without Trump this will never happen

I have a different view.

In November 2017, China announced most of these changes. Liu He (Vice Premier in charge of economics and finance) said China would make significant changes in 2018 and would surprise lots of people. What they announced today was mostly in the original plan.

Remember last year Shanghai planned to allow Tesla to open a factory? That was halted in the last step, couldn't get final approval from the central government. That's strange, why did Shanghai work with Tesla without prior permission from the central government? I think they kind of got the permission early on, then things changed. I guess for two reasons: 1. internal opposition, especially from Chinese car companies. 2. They foresaw a trade war coming. They wanted to use this as a bargaining chip.

In the original plan the import tariff on cars was planned to drop to single digit, but the plan would take several years. They were afraid of dramatic impact.

I give credit to Trump for greatly accelerating these two items. It's very important for Tesla. In the long run it's good for China's enviroment too.

 

[Intl Professor]

Truth be told, I am a Bohmian...

Damn you. I was going to make some smart ass remark like "I'm a Bohemian." But then I remembered reading David Bohm's, Wholeness and Implicate Order which I stole from my university's library in 1992 and have been meaning to return ever since I retired in 2001. I don't remember a damn thing in it, but now I have to reread it. Damn.

 

[ls7corvete]

China is doing the right things. Here is the exact wording from Chinese President Xi:

"Number 1, we will greatly open the market, ...... next step we will quickly loosen the rules on foreign investment share limitation especially on car (manufacturing) businesses."

"Number 4, This year, we will significantly reduce tariff on imported cars,......

"I want to stress, all of these important actions...... we will act on them ASAP...... earlier is better than later, faster is better than slower, so it will benefit Chinese business and people ASAP, and benefit world business and people ASAP."

My interpretation is that Xi specifically addressed the two requests that Elon raised regarding 100% owned car factory, and the import tax on cars. When Xi said these things publicly, they will happen.

I can't predict short term stock moves. I think Tesla is a strong buy and hold, probably the best buy and hold stock. I keep adding whenever I have cash. This is a significant turning point. Elon must be extremely happy right now. Now Tesla can participate in the Olympic games without lead shoes.

If you still have any doubt, the trade war is over. Tesla is the biggest winner. In the long run, both US and China will benefit from the outcome.

I almost hope that TSLA SP crashes based on China relations, just because I want more shares after reading this.

 

[jeewee3000]

i'll need a source on that. I was under the impression that tesla imports close to none chinese goods.

Bozi Tatarevic on Twitter

This was the source I posted. It is questionable, I'll give you that.

 

[Mike Smith]

$302 pre-market

 

[Iceman]

How do you guys think the shorts will try to play this today?

 

[aubreymcfato]

"Number 1, we will greatly open the market, ...... next step we will quickly loosen the rules on foreign investment share limitation especially on car (manufacturing) businesses."

Please everybody take a moment to appreciate the President of China correct use of the verb "loose"...

 

[Reciprocity]

How do you guys think the shorts will try to play this today?

They will cover in a panic, similar to what drove the stock up 20% last week. then they will put on fresh new shorts and claim victory if the stock dropped 3%.

 

[RobStark]

As I write this TSLA is up over $10 AH.

 

[Tslynk67]

Please everybody take a moment to appreciate the President of China correct use of the verb "loose"...

Yeah, he speaks better English than the POTUS

 

[Richgoogol]

Did Elon say he would only build a factory in China if it can be 100% owned by Tesla? If that’s the case, simply by lowering the tariff won’t convince Elon to build a factory in China since nothing was mentioned regarding ownership policies.

 

[mongo]

Did Elon say he would only build a factory in China if it can be 100% owned by Tesla? If that’s the case, simply by lowering the tariff won’t convince Elon to build a factory in China since nothing was mentioned regarding ownership policies.

Did you see this?

China is doing the right things. Here is the exact wording from Chinese President Xi:

"Number 1, we will greatly open the market, ...... next step we will quickly loosen the rules on foreign investment share limitation especially on car (manufacturing) businesses."

 

[bdy0627]

How do you guys think the shorts will try to play this today?

Sell the bounce hard at some point early in the day, essentially creating the impression of huge resistance. If effective, momentum traders move on and the stock stalls and fades. If it fails, the stock catapults up by buying and short covering.

 

[Richgoogol]

Did you see this?

My bad. I totally missed this part. Thanks!

 

[elasalle]

FUD is FUD, expect headlines tomorrow along the lines of

"More Bad News for Tesla, Flood of Competition to Enter World's Largest Auto Market as China to Drop Barriers to Exports from Global Auto Behemoths"

Already on the cusp of being crushed by a wave of new EV entrants to the US and Europe, Tesla's prospects in China have fallen under a dark cloud as...


I'm not simply joking here. I can't predict exactly what the spin will be, but, for much of the coverage expect some seeking of an angle of how to present a concern about all this and stretch that into being a big focal point.

It's not about the bulk of the media believing "stupid" things, or being "crazy" for believing contradictory things, it's about pursuing their assigned tasks. If that brings along with it selling "stupid" ideas to the public, and using Orwellian double speak, then that's what's brought along. It's not like the writers, editors, and talking heads of these outlets are concerned there will be some big piece of investigative journalism shining a light on what they do. It's like a police force being bought- they're not so likely to arrest themselves.

At some point (hope by Q3 18) Tesla "Actions" will speak louder than FUD "Words".

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Anyone want to venture a closing price today? I’m saying $316.22. Big day

 

[elasalle]

Yeah, he speaks better English than the POTUS

Did he really speak in English ?, or was it Google translate

 

[bambam4171]

Anyone want to venture a closing price today? I’m saying $316.22. Big day

You know how it goes: Good news for Tesla? TSLA down