TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[zzziii]

SpaceX said to be raising $500m to help fund internet service

Edit: Quote from the article:
"SpaceX is raising $500 million at a valuation of $30.5 billion, according to a WSJ report citing people familiar with the matter. "

 

[anthonyj]

He is calling this quarter the peak for TSLA. Looking at the month so far, and the way the stock is heading today, it likely means the peak for the stock was around $378.

Congratulations to everyone who sold near the peak!

It’s downhill from here on, Tesla will struggle to survive. The establishment has woken up and will soon unleash all their “Tesla killers” into the market, forcing Tesla out of business.

The stock will go to zero, Adam Jonas told you so!

Lol

Might as well call $380 the peak if everyone is just going to play this silly and predictable trading range!

 

[Cherry Wine]

If it's IB you can buy stocks on margin. So you would need 25% of the full cash amount if your put is exercised

Some brokers won't allow puts secured via margin.

Yeah, this smells of market manipulation, although Jonas and Tambourine-O are such idiots that it may just be rampant stupidity.

(Fred warning: Tesla (TSLA) gets knocked down a peg by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs )

Both Jonas and Tambourine-O want Tesla to raise capital by going to MS or GS (with the associated high fees) and are really annoyed that Tesla isn't going to, so they're pretending that Tesla is going to.

Anyone who can do arithmetic can tell that Tesla isn't going to. I anticipate that Tesla will end Q4 with about the same amount of cash they had at the end of Q3 (profits in Q4 should be similar to or slightly higher than in Q3, and the required bond payoffs are roughly equal to the profits from Q3), and more access to secured credit (the entire Warehouse Line was just turned into an asset-backed loan, freeing the Warehouse Line up again). With 3.5 billion in cash, Tesla will have no problem paying off the $920 million bond on March 1, and of course there will be more profits during Q1.

Anyway, I'm selling more DOTM puts, although it makes me uncomfortably leveraged (...for about a month). I can still execute all of them by selling my other, non-TSLA stocks. If I have to. I probably won't have to.



I decided that selling puts was a better way to leverage than using margin to buy stock directly. I get *paid* for the time value, and the worst that happens is that I buy the stock cheap and end up on margin. The disadvantage is that if the stock runs up quick and fast and permanently, I lose out on the upside of having more stock, but I already have so much stock owned outright that I am OK with that. I do have a lot of other stocks to back my put sales with though -- I would *not* back them with TSLA stock, as that's overcorrelated and risks margin calls.

Quality content.

He is calling this quarter the peak for TSLA. Looking at the month so far, and the way the stock is heading today, it likely means the peak for the stock was around $378.

Congratulations to everyone who sold near the peak!

It’s downhill from here on, Tesla will struggle to survive. The establishment has woken up and will soon unleash all their “Tesla killers” into the market, forcing Tesla out of business.

The stock will go to zero, Adam Jonas told you so!

Lol

I am automatically suspicious of analyst predictions, for the reason discussed in this thread yesterday: information is one of the single biggest edges an investor has in the market. Why hand it out so freely?

 

[Curt Renz]

This morning at 11:00 EST (16:00 UT) CFRA will commence a webinar on the subject of Predictions 2019 - CFRA's Best Ideas for the New Year.

• Utilities: Ten Predictions for 2019
• Financial Exchanges and Data Industry: Top 10 Predictions for 2019
• Automotive: Top 10 Predictions for 2019

Moderated by:

Kenneth Leon, Director of Equity Research, CFRA

Presented by:

• Chris Kuiper, Equity Research Analyst, CFRA
• Christopher Muir, Equity Research Analyst, CFRA
• Garrett Nelson, Senior Equity Research Analyst, CFRA

Garrett Nelson is their analyst who recently took over coverage of TSLA from the retiring TSLA bear Efraim Levy. On 2018 DEC 04 (my birthday!) Nelson reiterated a BUY rating on TSLA and raised its price target from $375 to $420.

In 2016 CFRA acquired S&P Global’s Equity and Fund Research. That included their Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall. He is a friend of mine and was a regular guest on my TV show. He keeps me on their comp and notifications lists.

Link to webinar registration: Predictions 2019 - CFRA's Best Ideas for the New Year

CFRA auto industry analyst Garrett Nelson reiterated his Tesla BUY rating and $420 price target. That does not consider the contribution of solar panels and energy storage, but he expects that will eventually become significant. Those were answers to the two questions I submitted. However their utilities analyst Christopher Muir expects battery storage of solar and wind energy to continue as an ever growing need for power companies.

Nelson sees the performance, range and cool factor of Tesla cars to keep them ahead of the competition as production ramps. He predicts what are for an automaker, unprecedented exponential leaps in net earnings during the coming years.

Nelson does predict a slowing in 2019 for the more established automakers, but a pickup once autonomous driving becomes pervasive.

Nelson also laid out the benefits to both Apple and Tesla for the former to pay $100 billion to buy the latter as a subsidiary run by Elon, but considers that to be less than 10% likely in 2019.

 

[anthonyj]

Andrew Left is the most effective analyst. We need him to reiterate his rating

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Didn’t expect the change of my avatar to have such a ripple effect. The thread is unrecognizable.

Patient zero

 

[Starno]

Upgrades and downgrades are a scheme. Upgrades near the top are used to generate retail interest in the stock so institutions can unload their shares with less slippage. Downgrades are used for the opposite

True but there's also limit to this view, there's a moment when it becomes just too good of a deal to play those kind of games.

Like why would institutions think that 365 is near the top. If it would be 600 sure why not, but 360 is just EXTREMELY cheap for any rational mind.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This 'capping' action by the shortz on low vol daze is faq'in funnee.

And what's the NASDAQ multiple today? 4x on Opening dip? -1.5x on run ups?

Bah haha! Don't they know they can't stop rock'n'roll?!

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[wipster]

Didn’t expect the change of my avatar to have such a ripple effect. The thread is unrecognizable.

Patient zero

Yeah, me too. It's becoming just a Black Night...

 

[wipster]

This 'capping' action by the shortz on low vol daze is faq'in funnee.

And what's the NASDAQ multiple today? 4x on Opening dip? 1.5x on run ups?

Bah haha! Don't they know they can't stop rock'n'roll?!

Cheers to the Longs!

Love the phone used in that video... is that the iPhone .0001?

 

[Artful Dodger]

But yeah, if they have a liquid cooled battery pack (which based on your comment they likely have) then my remarks about longevity do not apply.

Sorry, have to disagree. Tesla has liquid cooled packs, and even they will limit max rate for DC fast charging after a certain number of high-power charges.

The VW bty pack will be like a Romulan Cruiser warping past the Starship Enterprise at warp 9.9: It's a one-way trip.

Heat isn't the only thing that kills a battery: If the cells are charged above about 1.5 C charge rate, you are creating permanent, irreversible side-products that eat away at the bty cell's capacity.

VW plans to benefit from the ignorance of its consumers. Maybe they thing all the out-of-warranty failures will lead to a diesel renaissance? What's German for "Idiots"?

Cheers!

 

[anthonyj]

Netflix is ripping 4% for absolutely no reason. Tesla next?

 

[Cherry Wine]

This is shaping up to be one of those @Papafox "whack-a-mole" days, isn't it.

 

[AWDtsla]

Sorry, have to disagree. Tesla has liquid cooled packs, and even they will limit max rate for DC fast charging after a certain number of high-power charges.

The VW bty pack will be like a Romulan Cruiser warping past the Starship Enterprise at warp 9.9: It's a one-way trip.

Heat isn't the only thing that kills a battery: If the cells are charged above about 1.5 C charge rate, you are creating permanent, irreversible side-products that eat away at the bty cell's capacity.

VW plans to benefit from the ignorance of its consumers. Maybe they thing all the out-of-warranty failures will lead to a diesel renaissance? What's German for "Idiots"?

Cheers!

VW's pack doesn't need to last a day past warranty.

Also cold charging is way way way worse for the cell than being hot. This is the main limitation to high charging rates for the current chemistry.

 

[HG Wells]

GREEN

 

[EVMeister]

Green, bitches. Briefly?

 

[Todd Burch]

Shrubbery! (I mean...Green!).

 

[Artful Dodger]

GREEN (finally). Now 1.57% behind NASDAQ.

 

[wipster]

It’s downhill from here on, Tesla will struggle to survive. The establishment has woken up and will soon unleash all their “Tesla killers” into the market, forcing Tesla out of business.

The stock will go to zero, Adam Jonas told you so!

Lol

All of these folks talking about "Tesla killers" never mention the two things that Tesla has where they will never catch up: Superchargers and superior battery availability. And that doesn't include Tesla's extensive experience in designing and building electric cars, plus Tesla energy. It's going to be a looooong time before they get close to catching up.

IMHO, no worries mate.

 

[gringotuanis]

Some brokers won't allow puts secured via margin.



Quality content.



I am automatically suspicious of analyst predictions, for the reason discussed in this thread yesterday: information is one of the single biggest edges an investor has in the market. Why hand it out so freely?

After watching Tesla for several years I am convinced you should rarely follow an analyst rating, probably applies to other stocks as well. They either have no clue what they're talking about or they're deliberately using the reports to manipulate the stock. I think the SEC should absolutely investigate these so called "China walls" the big banks are supposed to have between departments. Probably impossible to crack down on the water cooler talk. Long TSLA calls and stock.